AZ's Political Future (Phoenix, Maricopa: construction, live, store)

[robabeatle]

What do you think is in store for the future of AZ in terms of politics.

More fiscally conservative but socially libertarian? Switch to Blue state? Thoughts?

[chazk14]

Phoenix is one of the few major cities that is republican, which I think is kinda cool. But for Arizona I imagine it will always mainly be republican especially once the bill is passed. lots of illegals will leave and it wouldn't surprise me if the new bill pushes out people who don't support it to California.

[Java Jolt]

Arizona is gaining in independent voters, something I'm very glad to see happen.

Many of the loons in the state legislature and various offices in Maricopa County are ultraconservative, they don't reflect the views of most residents but they have the power and control.

The fast-growing numbers of independent voters need to throw these clowns out of office and replace them with more moderate-minded legislators, or at least get a balance of power going.

[Prodigal Native]

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

Arizona is gaining in independent voters, something I'm very glad to see happen.

Many of the loons in the state legislature and various offices in Maricopa County are ultraconservative, they don't reflect the views of most residents but they have the power and control.

The fast-growing numbers of independent voters need to throw these clowns out of office and replace them with more moderate-minded legislators, or at least get a balance of power going.

The voters may be wising up, but the politicians aren't there yet.

The problem is that what we now consider more moderate was an extremist just 20 years ago. As a country we have shifted so far to the extremes that the middle is out of reach.

There was a time when I could vote for someone regardless of there being a D or an R next to their name simply based on their ideas and positions on a few key issues. I may not like everything a candidate stood for, but I could live with them. Now, the positions on all issues are codified into part of the party's platform and you better hope the one you like wins because the other person is out to destroy those ideals.

Yuck.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by CinSonic

Phoenix is one of the few major cities that is republican, which I think is kinda cool. But for Arizona I imagine it will always mainly be republican especially once the bill is passed. lots of illegals will leave and it wouldn't surprise me if the new bill pushes out people who don't support it to California.

It's Republican but it's not the same type of Republican found in other cities. Arizona is not in the South or the Bible Belt. It's Republican largely due to fiscal conservative and libertarian ideals. Recently it has become more socially conservative due to the immigration debate. More illegals will come here not less. The reason they left was due to the lack of jobs and poor economy. Now that the economy namely the housing and construction industry is picking up, more illegals will come. And Arizona companies will always hire illegals to profit.

Originally Posted by Prodigal Native

The voters may be wising up, but the politicians aren't there yet.

Politicians pander to voters. If voters express a desire for more moderate to liberal views, the politicians will adopt those to remain in office. I think what you will see is a lot of Republican candidates are going to move left and express moderate views to attract independent voters.

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

The fast-growing numbers of independent voters need to throw these clowns out of office and replace them with more moderate-minded legislators, or at least get a balance of power going.

And that is exactly what is going to happen. The Independent voters are going to vote for Democrats in local elections because the Republican candidates are too extreme. The Democrats in the state tend to be moderate(ex; Gifford) and not like the ultra left wing candidates that you see on the coasts. These Independents may still vote Republicans in national elections but you will see a move toward Democrats in local elections. That will in turn improve the Republican candidates in the future and you will ultimately see a shift back to Republicans.

[stephen431]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

I think what you will see is a lot of Republican candidates are going to move left and express moderate views to attract independent voters.

And that is exactly what is going to happen. The Independent voters are going to vote for Democrats in local elections because the Republican candidates are too extreme. The Democrats in the state tend to be moderate(ex; Gifford) and not like the ultra left wing candidates that you see on the coasts. These Independents may still vote Republicans in national elections but you will see a move toward Democrats in local elections. That will in turn improve the Republican candidates in the future and you will ultimately see a shift back to Republicans.

I disagree. As politicians have been getting more extreme, the more it has depressed moderate voter turnout. Right leaning independents and moderate Republicans haven't been voting Democrat, instead they've been staying home, or only voting for national candidates while leaving the down-ballot blank.

Formerly moderate Republican candidates have been moving further to the right for their primaries. Just a few months ago, Jeff Flake reversed about a dozen political positions he's held for a decade, that were mostly libertarian but could be portrayed as liberal, and shifted them all to the right.

It's awful, but highly divisive politics is a successful working strategy. Moderate positions and candidates just don't make headlines.

The only hope to turn out moderates is another massive political corruption scandal in Arizona (which is becoming more and more likely).

[Prodigal Native]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

Politicians pander to voters. If voters express a desire for more moderate to liberal views, the politicians will adopt those to remain in office. I think what you will see is a lot of Republican candidates are going to move left and express moderate views to attract independent voters.

I would like that to happen, but I am not sure.

The Tea Party is still strong enough to influence a lot of politicians and voters so you have an extreme movement that moves the right further to the right and left, as usual, is left floundering. The left does not have an organization of equal strength or organization (however haphazard the Tea Party's organization may be), so there is no really organized offsetting power.

I think we are at least one and probably two more election cycles away from seeing any real shift towards the center. 2016 is going to be a VERY interesting time especially if Obama is reelected (which I think he will be).