Arizona - only US state where large metro is more conservative than many small towns? (Phoenix: neighborhoods, universities)

[Tex?Il?]

Is Arizona the only state where the major metro area is actually more conservative than the states smaller cities and towns? I think it is. Look at the map. In case the image gets deleted for copyright:

https://brilliantmaps.com/2016-county-election-map/



I think there are reasons for this:

The Phoenix metro are has a high % of retirees, and older people tend to vote more conservative. And in general attracts a lot of midwesterners and Southern Californians that are right leaning libertarians - so despite being a metropolitan area, leans more conservative/Republican than most.

Smaller cities including Flagstaff, Tucson have as their economic and cultural base: major universities, a lot of federal workers in natural resource agencies, and other places from Sedona to Bisbee are more artsy/new age/hippie. Many of the blue counties have a large native american %, and in general - most minorities lean left/blue as they feel that they care more about their issues than Republicans.

Maricopa County leans right slightly. Coconino and Pima county lean left. Navajo and Santa Cruz county are the most blue.

This is NOT meant to be a political debate, but solely this question:

Do you agree that Arizona, is somewhat of an outlier among the 50 states - where the major metro is more conservative/Republican than many of the small towns/smaller cities?

[Tall Traveler]

Yes I can't think of another example of a state with its major metro more conservative than the state as a whole.

[JGMotorsport64]

I think the premise is false. The Phoenix metro is more conservative than say Tucson or Flagstaff, but it's less conservative than Yuma, Yavapai, Mohave, Gila, Cochise, Graham, La Paz, or Greenlee counties. In addition, the City of Phoenix itself is moderately liberal and Tempe is also pretty liberal. Phoenix metro's median age is also lower than the national average so it's dated reputation as a retiree haven is unfounded.


The conservative core of this state is really Mesa and Gilbert where there is a lot of money and a lot of Mormon influence.

[KurtAZ]

Flagstaff: leans Blue due to NAU and demographics
Tucson: leans Blue due to UofA and demographics
Phoenix proper: leans Blue

Many of the small towns are Red and some suburbs in the Phoenix Metro. You have to look at to population centers of the counties, not assuming that small towns lean Blue...they don't.

[Tex?Il?]

OK, let me reframe this:

Yes, many if not most of Arizona's small towns and small cities are clearly solidly conservative and Republican. I clearly wasn't disputing that at all. The counties clearly outweigh the blue counties.

However, Arizona does definitely seem to have its fair share of small towns and rural areas that lean blue compared to the national average for those sizes of population centers, meanwhile Metro Phoenix is more conservative than most all but a handful of metro areas over 1 million.

That's what I was trying to communicate. Maybe my initial thread title is a little misleading.

Thank you JGMotorsport64 for pointing out that Mesa/Chandler is the conservative core of the state, and more than balances out the blue enclaves. I wasn't aware that Mesa was that LDS. I came across an article after reading your post that even today with only 13% LDS, the mayor and several of the city council are LDS.

And perhaps the fact that Phoenix metro compared the majority of metro areas over 1 million has relative little to offer in the way of walkability/transit urban core outside Tempe and some neighborhoods of inner Phoenix proper (who would more likely lean left) and still has a higher % of retirees (even if not as high as historically or commonly stereotyped) than most metro areas - all likely to make it more conservative.

Meanwhile, yes having a major public university in Tucson and Flagstaff is going to make even small cities lean left/blue. But I think there is more going on that would make Arizona (and frankly many western states) have higher number of left leaning small towns are rural areas:

1. Federal land management employees and scientists: NPS employees, outfitters, scientists including geologists, astronomers that work at remote observatories are going to be purple, as they are more likely to lean pro-environmental. Certainly at least more than places where the economy revolves around livestock, mining, and other extractive/commodity activities.

2. Along with #1, places of outstanding scenic beauty is (which Arizona has plenty of) are going to attract artists/hippies/new age types especially in Sedona, etc. and many many other communities across the southwest. They're going to lean left.

3. High % of Native Americans. Even if socially conservative - any rural area that is majority minority is going to lean left. Some people assume this is because of government benefits, though I think there is even a deeper distrust of Republicans, that they just head some low grade white supremacy. (Not saying I agree with that belief - just saying that many have that belief even if not true!)

Anyways - just merely pointing out that Arizona does have a major metro that is more conservative than the rest of its US peers, while having more small cities, small towns, and rural areas that lean more to the left than most places of its size.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Flagstaff: leans Blue due to NAU and demographics
Tucson: leans Blue due to UofA and demographics
Phoenix proper: leans Blue

Many of the small towns are Red and some suburbs in the Phoenix Metro. You have to look at to population centers of the counties, not assuming that small towns lean Blue...they don't.

I still think the premise of the metro as OP framed it is correct. if you change the premise to within city boundaries, then it becomes a different premise. Is there another state where the largest metro votes more conservative than the state....I don't think so.

I remember when George Bush ran and won 39 of the 44 counties in my state (Washington) and didn't come close to winning the state....the Seattle metro is far more liberal than the rest of the state...not even close.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

I still think the premise of the metro as OP framed it is correct. if you change the premise to within city boundaries, then it becomes a different premise. Is there another state where the largest metro votes more conservative than the state....I don't think so.

I remember when George Bush ran and won 39 of the 44 counties in my state (Washington) and didn't come close to winning the state....the Seattle metro is far more liberal than the rest of the state...not even close.

But it doesn’t. That’s the problem with the premise

[Veritas Vincit]

Trump won all but 4 of the state's counties. Those 4 counties were Pima (Tucson), Apache (mostly Amerindian), Coconino (Flagstaff/Sedona) and Santa Cruz (80% Spanish-speaking/essentially Mexican). The large presence of Hispanics and Amerindian people in rural areas is a special feature of Arizona (tho not unique). The presence of secondary centers based around universities which lean more liberal is not particularly unusual, see Iowa City in Iowa, Madison in Wisconsin or Austin in TX.



As far as Maricopa is concerned, it went for Trump but barely so, if you look at precincts you can see that Hillary ran up large margins in inner Phoenix while Trump carried much of the suburbs. I don't think this is all that unusual. What's fairly unusual is for all of that to be encompassed by one county. I think Phoenix is a pretty standard Red State metro in that its suburbs lean red - except it's more difficult to identify this due to the large county that encompasses much of the metro. In other states the different sections of large metros and their leanings tend to be more easily pinned down as they're part of different counties.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by Veritas Vincit

Trump won all but 4 of the state's counties. Those 4 counties were Pima (Tucson), Apache (mostly Amerindian), Coconino (Flagstaff/Sedona) and Santa Cruz (80% Spanish-speaking/essentially Mexican). The large presence of Hispanics and Amerindian people in rural areas is a special feature of Arizona (tho not unique). The presence of secondary centers based around universities which lean more liberal is not particularly unusual, see Iowa City in Iowa, Madison in Wisconsin or Austin in TX.



As far as Maricopa is concerned, it went for Trump but barely so, if you look at precincts you can see that Hillary ran up large margins in inner Phoenix while Trump carried much of the suburbs. I don't think this is all that unusual. What's fairly unusual is for all of that to be encompassed by one county. I think Phoenix is a pretty standard Red State metro in that its suburbs lean red - except it's more difficult to identify this due to the large county that encompasses much of the metro. In other states the different sections of large metros and their leanings tend to be more easily pinned down as they're part of different counties.

I don't think that's correct. Houston is the largest city in Texas for example and Harris County with 4.7M people voted for Hillary by a huge margin although Trump won the state by a larger margin than he won Arizona.

Wayne Co. michigan voted 75% for Hillary and Trump won Michigan, the same for Philly in Pennsylvania. I haven't seen anything that would refute the OP original premise other than people making incorrect statements or changing the premise.

[Veritas Vincit]

The city of Phoenix also went for Hillary by a significant margin. Maricopa overall went for Trump just by a few points and only because it includes the vast majority of Phoenix's suburbs as well.



Houston's metro also isn't just Harris, suburban Brazoria, Galveston and Montgomery counties all went for Trump by significant margins. It's quite possible that Phoenix is more conservative than Houston, or maybe more Republican at least, as Houston in addition to a significant hispanic population also has a very significant black population. But the Houston metro is much less Democratic overall than you'd think just based on Harris county (where only about 20% of residents are white).


Dallas is similar to Phoenix politically in that it has mostly Democratic urban areas and pretty Republican suburbs.