Japanese nationalism, Abe, and a growing military-industrial complex? (interesting)

[eskercurve]

Originally Posted by pennyone

It's complete BS to argue that China today is "more aggressive". It may only appear so because it is now finally strong enough to stand up for its own national interest in safeguarding its territorial sovereignty, which it could not do for the past 200 years. Anyone who think that somehow a strong Japan needs to be let out of its "cage" to contain China is either blind to recent history, or masterfully using geopolitics to maintain American hegemony in Asia (Japan as a dog to do American bidding).

To follow the latter goal, one still needs to remember that amongst nations, there is never permanent friends, just interests. During WWII, the US aided Republican China against a militarist (and sadistic) Japan. Now, more than 60 years later, the rhetorics have change into aiding a "democratic" Japan against Chinese "communism". What might happen 60 years from now, no one knows. But one thing is certain; there is only one country so far in history that got nuked (Japan), and there is only one country so far in history that nuked another country, and that is the US. How odd that they are such good friends now, but do you really think the Japanese have forgotten their history? I don't think so.

China fought a defensive war in Korea only once the US led forces crossed the Sino-Korean border (Yalu). The Japanese struck by surprise at Pearl Harbor and dragged the US into the Second World War.

I think China doesn't need to arm itself to the teeth to achieve its interests. It has done quite well on its own industrially and without a modern army. Though, to be fair, it has the longest land border in the world and it has one of the largest sea borders with lucrative shipping lanes. While the USA would likely defend those lanes if the lanes were threatened, it makes sense to build up a strong navy to do so on China's part. That's the only reason I see for arming up China. Chinese territorial claims today date back hundreds of years when it exerted soft power on satellite states. That holds no water to today's reality. Borders are but lines drawn in the sand and today, the Senkaku are Japan's, etc. In the future, who knows - maybe China will plant a little flag there and force the UN to recognize it and it will be theirs.

And one other little nit... China didn't fight a defensive posture in the Korean War. It fought an aggression war when it looked like its puppet government in the North would lose. So it intervened. What a failed experiment that was, wasn't it? The North is now an international laughingstock and the very definition of a Orwellian 1984-esque state controlled cult of personality dictatorship. Glad to know the millions who died in human wave attacks died for a good cause, right?

I guess that answers my own question - it is apparent that China is willing to stoop to very low low's and do devious things to exert a hard power like it has done before in Korea and Vietnam (you can't tell me China didn't participate, that is a blatant lie). Thus, facing a stretched thin Uncle Sam, Japan must be able to defend itself from bullies who only understand strength.

[pennyone]

"I think China doesn't need to arm itself to the teeth to achieve its interests. It has done quite well on its own industrially and without a modern army."...

It has not. Look at how many nukes it has relative to both the USA and Russia. And, its per capita spending on defense is puny. Nice try.

"it makes sense to build up a strong navy to do so on China's part."

Thanks for your permission! Of course it does. It also makes sense for China to have a strong air force and space based weapons too along with a more robust nuclear posture. You dont think the US has all these? Who will defend China against the likes of the US...or Japan when it re-arms, like you want?

"Chinese territorial claims today date back hundreds of years when it exerted soft power on satellite states. That holds no water to today's reality. Borders are but lines drawn in the sand and today, the Senkaku are Japan's, etc."...

No the Diao Yus were directly administered by the prefecture of Taiwan under the regional magistrate based in Fujian since the Qing on the mainland. It was used regularly by fishermen for their work and for their protection against storms. It is not an "empty place" that Japan "discovered. Nice try but nope.

"maybe China will plant a little flag there and force the UN to recognize it and it will be theirs."...

You mean, like the way the Imperial Army of Japan did on the Great Wall in 1937? You speak of possible action by China, I speak of real actions done by Japan. Maybe China should learn diligently from Japan's accomplishments.

"China didn't fight a defensive posture in the Korean War. It fought an aggression war when it looked like its puppet government in the North would lose."
Nope, you have your history completely wrong. Check out Stalin's cable notes to Mao on the eve of the Chinese intervention and you will see that NK was a Soviet puppet, not China's. In fact, Mao was very very reluctant to intervene, but was forced to do so because of his fear for China's safety. He lost his son in the war too. You are wrong.

"it is apparent that China is willing to stoop to very low low's and do devious things to exert a hard power like it has done before in Korea and Vietnam..."

Oh you mean as low as Unit 731, the Three-all Campaigns, the Northern Plague Campaign, the Rape of Nanking etc etc etc that Japan has done under its "Greater East Asia Co-prosperiy Sphere" banner? Nah...Japan beats China hands down in this category!


"I think China doesn't need to arm itself to the teeth to achieve its interests." and "Japan must be able to defend itself from bullies who only understand strength."....

Wow, so China shouldn't arm itself, but Japan should? Who killed 20 millions of whose people again?

[Forest_Hills_Daddy]

Originally Posted by pennyone

masterfully using geopolitics to maintain American hegemony in Asia (Japan as a dog to do American bidding).

Yeah but isn't this really moot and academic? Either one chooses hegemony under China or hegemony under the US - one or the other. Why would it be to any of the smaller Asian nations' greater interests to side with China?

As for Japan, despite atrocities they have committed during WW2 they do serve a purpose in helping maintain the balance in the region today. They have the GDP to maintain a reasonably strong military which is something few Asian countries have the means of doing right now.

[pennyone]

"They have the GDP to maintain a reasonably strong military which is something few Asian countries have the means of doing right now."...

You do know that their deficit ratio is at 224% of their GDP....ours is at 94%.

In a way, I am sure China will want Japan to militarize. Given Japan's precariously stagnant economy and deep deficit spending, and a rapidly aging population....an added heavy military burden will sooner or later crush the Japanese.

[Forest_Hills_Daddy]

/\/\

But Japan's cost of borrowing is also lower than China's. Same with the US. Japan also has easier access to sovereign debt markets so they can keep rolling over their liabilities, not to mention a large domestic depositors' market. Maybe they can't roll over for 100 years straight but we will all be dead by then anyway.

[pennyone]

"Maybe they can't roll over for 100 years straight but we will all be dead by then anyway."...

A century is a drop in the Chinese history bucket.

"But Japan's cost of borrowing is also lower than China's..."

Who cares? China is one of the world's biggest creditor nations...it doesnt need to borrow, and its sovereign debt is tiny anyway. It's local debt may be problematic, but with a $3 trillion war chest, I wouldn't be too stressed about China.

While many warn China not to start an arms race in Asia, my thoughts are exactly the opposite. China needs to use its economic might and favorable balance sheet to build its military. It still has a lot of catching up to do relative to the US, and the attending military-industrial comlex effect on its educational institutions (that research new weapons), the industrial production chains, the marketing and processing arms, will all benefit/stimulate the Chinese economy like it did the US economy.

In the mean time, no states in Asia can outpace and outspend China, and still live to tell about it. In fact, I hope Japan tries to go toe-to-toe with China....it will be its own downfall. For example, I read the other day that, for every Japanese Aegis system guided missile destroyer built, China can put down two-three 052D Chinese Aegis destroyers with comparable capabilities to the Japanese ships, and this on top of the massive numbers of 054 frigates, the new domestically built carriers, the new 081 Amphibious assault ships and the huge numbers of new 056 light corvettes that the Chinese shipyards are building simutaneously. I think China has finally broken out of its continental mentality, and is striving to be a true maritime power. It needs to, given its huge overseas trading network and reliance on foreign oil.

I am also glad that Biden was just in Beijing, and I think his long discussion with Xi and other Chinese leaders was all about building a "New Great power" relationship between the US and China. Japan must feel very left out, despite the lip service by Washington talking heads to the Mutual Defense Treaty...

I also note that the US is no longer demanding that China recind its East Sea ADIZ. Now, it's just "please dont enforce your rules...please!!!!!" Nice retreat. Of course China will not harm any commercial jets. But it will certainly patrol the airspace above the Diao Yus, which are well within the Chinese zone. You can count on that.

[Forest_Hills_Daddy]

Countries today do not care what happens in 100 years and whether or not China will still be around. They are protecting their interests today, not next century.

Second, China can be defeated at war today with alliances. Japan is not stupid enough to go to war on its own and everyone pretty much knows that Japan, as well as South Korea and Taiwan are proxies for the United States. America and the other Asian countries want them to spend more on defense, but it does not have to be as much as China. All they need to do is provide a strong enough buffer for an initial assault or provide their territories for a pre-emptive strike. They may even be invaded but at least that will let America buy precious time.

Look at how things stand today and you will see why China is upset. It is literally surrounded in the Pacific by American allies. There is Japan and Korea in the north, and Taiwan in the southern coast. Then in the South China sea these is the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore. Vietnam is gravitating to the US and China will then be hemmed in from the south. All of these places can be used today as American forward bases or supply stations in times of war. Those roads and provincial airports that the US government "donated" to the Philippines can and will be converted to air bases. Singapore already repairs USN ships and can easily dock warships and supply vessels.

100 years from today who knows what the world will be like? China might even become a US ally.

[pennyone]

Hemmed in? Do you know how much Chinese investments are floating around SE Asia? You mention the Filipinos and the Vietnamese...two of the weakest in the whole ASEAN bunch. Singapore will not side with the US because it's heavily ethnic Chinese. S Koreans are not that stupid either. You are thinking like an outdated Cold Warrior way past your prime.

The first thing to go is the GPS system if push comes to shove. Let's just hope China gets its due space because nobody really wins here.

It also seems that the Obama Administration is getting the message.

[Forest_Hills_Daddy]

Originally Posted by pennyone

Hemmed in? Do you know how much Chinese investments are floating around SE Asia? You mention the Filipinos and the Vietnamese...two of the weakest in the whole ASEAN bunch.

Who said anything about the Philippine and Vietnamese militaries going against China? That's just smoke and mirrors. There is so much infrastructure in the Philippines outside of Manila that can be converted to house American aircraft, equipment, troops and ships and much of this was paid for by the US government. Just like Taiwan, the Philippines can be converted to a virtual aircraft carrier in short notice. You know those war games that the US and Philippines have been conducting? It's to familiarize the US military with the Philippines' territory in case they have to use it. America can swarm strategic points in the Philippines with troops and war material in less than one week from the outbreak of war. If Vietnam allies itself with America, it can already provide Cam Rahn Bay as a naval base and expect the US to provide "rural infrastructure" under the guise of "aid".

Originally Posted by pennyone

Singapore will not side with the US because it's heavily ethnic Chinese.Singapore will not side with the US because it's heavily ethnic Chinese.

Wrong. In war, Singapore will side with the US over China. It is the US navy's #1 service port in Southeast Asia and its airfields already house and maintain US warplanes and military cargo aircraft. It was already a logistics and service center to the US Navy during both the Gulf, Afghan and Iraq wars.

That is the major thing that China lacks - forward bases, allies, proxies and execution. America has allies and proxies that are close to China (Japan, Korea, Taiwan), and forward bases that its military can use at a moment's notice (Thailand, Philippines, Singapore). China does not have forward bases, allies and proxies that are near the US. It cannot quickly set up command outposts in strategic areas because it lacks the allies and the familiarity. It takes more than guns and manpower to win a war. You need to look at finances, logistics, and supply chains.

[415_s2k]

Originally Posted by pennyone

Singapore will not side with the US because it's heavily ethnic Chinese.

Eh, if the way that most ethnic Chinese Singaporeans I've met think about the Mainland are any indicator, I don't think that's true.

You are thinking like an outdated Cold Warrior way past your prime.

... and you're coming across as a biased nationalist.

That "outdated Cold Warrior" mindset is part of the reason that the US still currently has the largest blue water Navy in the world, the most current-generation fighter planes, the most long-range bombers... as people are quick to note derisively, the US spends more on its military than anyone else by a very wide margin. China may be rising, but they only just completed their first aircraft carrier, which is already a generation out of date and laid down by the Soviets. The US has twenty aircraft carriers, three times as many and more advanced fighter planes, and nearly four times as many attack aircraft.

All this is ultimately moot, as the US and China, if anything, seem very keen to avoid conflict and there's very, very little chance that a war will break out. Ultimately, I think that China would do well where America has slipped up, and avoid building an unnecessarily large and expensive military and instead focus on growing their commerce and their national infrastructure.