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Hong Kong won't merge with anything in China for a long time. The Hong Kong Dollar has a lot of value and is, if I remember correctly, one of the top 10 reserve currencies in the world. China has too much to risk in the banking sector of Hong Kong to merge with China. I'm sure Beijing would like to see that value added to the RMB, but more likely is that it would flee to other markets. China has very strict banking laws and regulations. China's hands are tied if it wants to keep that wealth. There is nothing they can do to bring Hong Kong more into the fold, they can disrupt their democracy and rights, but the financial sector is far too powerful. It's more likely that Macau will switch to the RMB, RMB and HKD are already widely accepted there. If anything, I see China's banking system coming to meet Hong Kong's and perhaps in 100 years they can merge. China's financial system is not very good and their stock markets are propped up by the government constantly. They regularly have to implement government purchases of stocks, closing the stock markets, and banning investors from selling. They've had to do this multiple times ever year. Why would they bring Hong Kong into that mess. They won't, and they won't let Shenzhen join Hong Kong.
The question I really have is, would it be beneficial for HK to merge with Shenzhen, in effect, making Shenzhen also part of the SAR (Special Administrative Region)? Shenzhen could benefit from a stronger legal system such as Hong Kong's. I see real value in merging seen as if HK itself has many Mainland Chinese there anyway. Some points to consider:
- It would give HK as a region more power as a manufacturing base and possibly compete against South Korea/Taiwan/Japan.
- Free up Hong Kongers from living in tight squashed spaces, I'd leave HK as it is as a business hub so to speak.
- Somewhat drive home prices down but quality of life UP.
- Shenzheners can get a better passport/better access to travel & better education.
Many of the earlier growth in China/Shenzhen was started by Hong Kong businessman/expats. It is nothing like that today, many Mainland Chinese have developed better tech than 30+ years ago...
OK, you don't seem to understand Shenzhen and China.
The SAR was meant to be a temporary solution so that HK can be taken back from the Brits. China does not prefer the SAR, and doesn't think it is a desirable system (which you seem to imply). Shenzhen was not created with the intention to increase HK's power -- you are so naive here. On the contrary, Shenzhen was created to benefit from HK (not to benefit HK!) and compete with it in the future, and now it is. HK's "stronger legal system" is a typical western mindset, so the Chinese government does not necessarily agree with you and definitely does not want to expand it to Shenzhen, or anywhere in mainland China. China has no interest in increasing the influence of HK into mainland China, but rather, they want HK to be absorbed into mainland China over the long term.
You have it backward completely from your west-centric, HK-superior point of view. I don't blame you, but China doesn't have such a plan.
Last edited by botticelli; 09-28-2017 at 01:28 AM..
It's not really a new idea, ever since Shenzhen became a SEZ (Special Economic Zone) it's pretty much been designed to one day merge with HK or at least synergise.
Beijing would want something like a Singapore for Hong Kong...where you'd have a robust legal system but run by a somewhat really strict government. Singapore imho as close as you can get to a "socialism with democratic characteristics"..
HK is nowhere near a democracy back in the ole days of British rule .... and even now...
Shenzhen adopting the HK legal system would make it a hell of a lot easier for SZ companies to do business on a global scale. Personally I think it makes a lot of sense and SZ was already groomed to be as such. If done right like East/West Germany, there can be many benefits...
Population would be a combined 18-20 million with an area of 2,600m2 of usable space. I'd leave HK basically as a CBD/commercial centre whereas Shenzhen would be better for residential and light farming purposes.
Only problem really is to get HKers today to agree to a merger and having a somewhat 30 year "transition" period to 2047. I find HK way too stuffy and overpopulated, whilst SZ is no Siberia, the it could at least provide decent living space.
no no no. you have it backwards again.
Shenzhen was never designed to merge with HK. If at all, it was probably designed for HK to merge with it. Shenzhen will NEVER adopt the HK legal system - that's like telling the world China's legal system suck (although it does). SZ was not "groom" to be part of HK. It was designed to compete with it, possibly forming the same metropolis in the distance future, but it will be naive to think Shenzhen will become more and more like HK. No, the plan is for HK is eventually become just a Chinese city.
Shenzhen better for residential and light farming? Do you know ANYTHING about Shenzhen? It is designed to be a innovation and technological centre, China's silicon valley. Today Shenzhen's GDP is only 10% lower than of HK and will surpass it in 2017 most likely. Shenzhen also has a population of 11M, compared with 7M for HK. SZ will not be an extension or a suburb of HK.
You keep talking as if HK is the whole point and SZ is there to serve it (providing living space, what is SZ, the New Jersey for HK??). That's completely wrong. HK's importance in China will undoutedly decline in the future and SZ's will rise. After your 30 year transition period, the SAR and all the special policy will disappear and the two will probably form one large city that is completely Chinese.
China is actively eroding HK's autonomy, so it makes no sense that it'd want SZ to absorb any of HK's. SZ's planned boom started before the handover was a sure bet, and the attitude at the time was to eventually a) siphon off HK business as a China-run "door to China," rather than a UK-run one, and b) eventually become a megacity, along with Guangzhou and Dongguan, that would culturally influence and eventually, hopefully, engulf HK. After the handover was agreed to, it was pretty much a given that in due time, the border would open up and the line between HK and SZ would blur. This is inevitable. HK will continue to maintain its own character for some time to come, but it certainly won't be the British HK that we all grew up knowing.
It will also continue to be influential in banking and commerce for some time; there is far too much money there for things to just turn on a dime. It will long be "different" in many ways from other Chinese cities, including Shenzhen, even after you can take a single metro train straight from Central to Shekou. SZ is China's tech hub; HK's tech influence is close to naught. They're in very vastly different positions.
China is actively eroding HK's autonomy, so it makes no sense that it'd want SZ to absorb any of HK's. SZ's planned boom started before the handover was a sure bet, and the attitude at the time was to eventually a) siphon off HK business as a China-run "door to China," rather than a UK-run one, and b) eventually become a megacity, along with Guangzhou and Dongguan, that would culturally influence and eventually, hopefully, engulf HK. After the handover was agreed to, it was pretty much a given that in due time, the border would open up and the line between HK and SZ would blur. This is inevitable. HK will continue to maintain its own character for some time to come, but it certainly won't be the British HK that we all grew up knowing.
It will also continue to be influential in banking and commerce for some time; there is far too much money there for things to just turn on a dime. It will long be "different" in many ways from other Chinese cities, including Shenzhen, even after you can take a single metro train straight from Central to Shekou. SZ is China's tech hub; HK's tech influence is close to naught. They're in very vastly different positions.
Yep, you have got it right.
Westerners might miss "British HK", but they have the accept the fact that HK is a Chinese city and it makes no sense to still be like "British anything". Not just the Chinese government, 99% of the Chinese despise the word "British UK". And trust me, tons of Chinese would want to make HK just a regular city TODAY, although the government won't be crazy enough to do that. But in the long run, it will happen.
The New Jersey of Hong Kong......ha.....Pretty good.
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