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While North Korea is officially denying that coronavirus is circulating within the country, a South Korean paper has obtained a report from an army hospital that implies that conditions are dire.
Most alarming is that the report from North Korea's military hospital reassures that soldiers eat at least 800 grams a day (about 26 ounces a day), with three meals of pureed soybean soup a day, instead of the usual one time a day.
These are the soldiers. They're likely to get more food than the general population, because starving soldiers are no good to North Korea, so their food supply is likely prioritized over that of the general population. They're also likely to be young, since old soldiers are of no use. In China, where the population is not starving, the young are barely presenting for medical care, let alone dying. If this is the report of what's happening to soldiers, who are young and better-fed than the general population, one can only imagine what is happening to the general population. May God help them. Their government will not, and the rest of the world cannot get in to help them.
I don't know what to believe when its come to North Korea. Report after report has been proven to be false (from people others claimed were taken out by the dear leader who later show up at functions to their inability to produce an atomic weapon in the time period that they did, etc.). Yes, we get some things that are confirmed to be true, but there's just been too much inaccurately reported for me to take it with more than a grain of salt.
If the coronavirus is the thing that finally brings down the Kim dynasty and gives the surviving North Koreans a chance at a normal life, it'll be a blessing. But I won't hold my breath. I think the only thing that would save the North Koreans is direct military intervention by South Korea or the United States, and I don't see that happening unless they attack us first.
If the coronavirus is the thing that finally brings down the Kim dynasty and gives the surviving North Koreans a chance at a normal life, it'll be a blessing. But I won't hold my breath. I think the only thing that would save the North Koreans is direct military intervention by South Korea or the United States, and I don't see that happening unless they attack us first.
Exposure to Western media is widespread in North Korea these days. While most people would never dare to speak out against the government, it's possible that there may be a coup attempt if conditions worsen due to trade restrictions.
Daily NK is the source of the news. It was set up recently to transmit news about North Korea into North Korea. There are already some discrepancies in the article. There are several rabid anti-NK papers in South Korea which can't be trusted. The location shots appear to be in China. North Korea recently closed the border with Dandong, China so the disease has likely spread into the Hermit Kingdom. I would doubt their claim of the high level of deaths among military unless they're very senior officers at advanced age.
If the coronavirus is the thing that finally brings down the Kim dynasty and gives the surviving North Koreans a chance at a normal life, it'll be a blessing. But I won't hold my breath. I think the only thing that would save the North Koreans is direct military intervention by South Korea or the United States, and I don't see that happening unless they attack us first.
agreed
better if the virus brings them down. win without firing a shot
Plus, although there were Chinese tourists in North Korea, not many were from Wuhan; and the border was closed very soon, before the virus spreaded all over China. The tourists had no direct contact with the military either.
No way to keep a virus out....even NK cannot do that. It would be a blessing to the people there if coronavirus took down the Kim regime. It is a starving nation with poor medical care, no doubt coronavirus will hit them hard. Hopefully the center of the outbreak will be Kim Jong Uns palace.
Honestly, the coronavirus outbreak won't do much to threaten the power of Kim, at least not in the short term and directly as a result of mishandling, deaths, etc.
The military is very unlikely to forsake Kim and the politiburo... NK has survived famines and the dynasty stays intact, and I don't see any reason it won't be the case now. Plus, the US, SK, and Japan - the three nations that would or could possibly step in to aid along a regime change - are currently dealing with COVID-19 themselves and are, quite simply, not interested. Their economy was already in the toilet, and always has been... whether 100 or 100,000 people die, it's still just sort of sitting there, going "meh," lobbing the occasional crappy missile into the waters around it and threatening to attack some nation with weapons it doesn't have.
The main thing that could threaten their status quo is China's domestic situation. China's economy has taken a beating and it's going to be a long recovery; it's tried to send people back to work in its factories, but the rest of the world is in a slowdown which will likely lead to a proper recession shortly (if it hasn't already started), and so there's no one buying what China's making. As long as it takes the rest of the world to recover, so will it take China. During that time, China will be focusing much more of its efforts on what it can to to support its own regime and try to stabilize its own economy than trying to prop up a vassal state that has tried its patience and provides little manifested material benefit.
If NK's situation worsens and China declines to write off its losses or aid in its stabilization efforts, it could turn back towards its previous cooperative efforts with SK, opening its borders to Chaebol investment; Trump will likely be looking for some sort of "victory" to bandy about before the election as his mishandling of the coronavirus situation in the US bites, and could extend a hand to NK if Kim initiates the conversation. Trump is a total wildcard and could bite again, to score a fleeting, cheap "victory" and give the finger to China. However, if both SK and the US decline as well, NK could find itself alone and react the only way it knows how: with belligerence. An impatient Japan or SK, looking for a "victory" of its own and to flex its muscles in the region against a faltering China, could decide to respond to one of NK's "pokes" with a beating.
Of course, these are all hypothetical, and odds are that things will remain the same as they've ever been, but, hey. Lots of time to sit and think and imagine, these days.
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