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Turkey has probably been the biggest benefactor from this conflict. Proof that the doctrine of neutrality works. A course they have clearly ticked off European powers with the lack of united front, but hey what's new. They've been doing so since the Ottoman days.
I do wonder what the purpose of the Taiwan visit was. No offence but she is only the speaker of the house and has no direct influence of foreign relations. Good chance she will not be in the position after November elections. Just seems like a bunch of trouble for nothing. Not sure why China is getting riled up over Pelosi. Simply stating “she is not worth our energy” would have been sufficient.
If you don't get why China is getting all riled up, you don't understand the situation. China is making a mountain of a molehill because their entire domestic situation, in the macro, is terrible. Declining birthrate, slowing economy, roving lockdowns, meddling in commerce and real estate, the list goes on. People aren't happy, or hopeful. Xi staked his legacy on making China strong and respected - he's failed miserably at the latter, as he's managed to undo so much of the influence China had gained in the last couple decades and point its trajectory downwards. The grand, fatalistic, fiery language China has been using in recent years whenever confronted with any perceived slight is a mechanism of insecurity, meant to project as unassailable might.
They haven't been able to force or manipulate their way out of their self-induced crises, so what can he do to assert himself? Well, he's been insisting for years that he would take Taiwan back by force if necessary, and has shown he's an impatient, rash, and driven by his own ego and legacy.
I opined a few times over the last couple years that China's window to make this the "Chinese century" is closing, and the avenues are shutting down, one by one. Right now, "taking back" Taiwan probably looks like the sort of (literally) violent jolt that their situation needs, to wake up their people, and strike terror in its adversaries. Making a big deal over her visit was a way to put the US in a position where it would basically have to follow through with her visit lest it make them look weakened, and in turn give them an excuse at home and among their allies to flex their military might.
Will they follow through with an attack? I don't know. It would be a terrible thing for them to do, for the people of Taiwan, for the global economy and community, and also for themselves. There's no guarantee China would achieve their military goals, and in the process, their economy would crater. The industrialized nations with whom reciprocal trade forms the backbone of their economy would react with sanctions. It would backfire spectacularly and have global ramifications.
A lot of the experts and talking heads are saying that they don't think this will escalate into an all-out war - yet. However, the experts have gotten a lot wrong on China in recent years. I think they overestimate Xi's pragmatism and underestimate the control that he has over cooler heads in the CCP. I'm not saying that I think it's imminent this week, but we are much closer to war than we should be.
Making a big deal over her visit was a way to put the US in a position where it would basically have to follow through with her visit lest it make them look weakened, and in turn give them an excuse at home and among their allies to flex their military might.
Will they follow through with an attack? I don't know. It would be a terrible thing for them to do, for the people of Taiwan, for the global economy and community, and also for themselves. There's no guarantee China would achieve their military goals, and in the process, their economy would crater. The industrialized nations with whom reciprocal trade forms the backbone of their economy would react with sanctions. It would backfire spectacularly and have global ramifications.
A lot of the experts and talking heads are saying that they don't think this will escalate into an all-out war - yet. However, the experts have gotten a lot wrong on China in recent years. I think they overestimate Xi's pragmatism and underestimate the control that he has over cooler heads in the CCP. I'm not saying that I think it's imminent this week, but we are much closer to war than we should be.
Xi doesn't really need an excuse to attack, he can always make up one and the Chinese public will buy it. If he plans to attack, then he probably has already set a date for the invasion and neither appeasement or resistance will change that date.
In terms of Pelosi, I believe he thought the threats would work because he has deluded himself into thinking that the USA won't defend Taiwan. CCP-shills always claim that the USA will abandon Taiwan, and China is too important to be blockaded, so why would Xi think any different?
If you don't get why China is getting all riled up, you don't understand the situation. China is making a mountain of a molehill because their entire domestic situation, in the macro, is terrible. Declining birthrate, slowing economy, roving lockdowns, meddling in commerce and real estate, the list goes on. People aren't happy, or hopeful. Xi staked his legacy on making China strong and respected - he's failed miserably at the latter, as he's managed to undo so much of the influence China had gained in the last couple decades and point its trajectory downwards. The grand, fatalistic, fiery language China has been using in recent years whenever confronted with any perceived slight is a mechanism of insecurity, meant to project as unassailable might.
They haven't been able to force or manipulate their way out of their self-induced crises, so what can he do to assert himself? Well, he's been insisting for years that he would take Taiwan back by force if necessary, and has shown he's an impatient, rash, and driven by his own ego and legacy.
I opined a few times over the last couple years that China's window to make this the "Chinese century" is closing, and the avenues are shutting down, one by one. Right now, "taking back" Taiwan probably looks like the sort of (literally) violent jolt that their situation needs, to wake up their people, and strike terror in its adversaries. Making a big deal over her visit was a way to put the US in a position where it would basically have to follow through with her visit lest it make them look weakened, and in turn give them an excuse at home and among their allies to flex their military might.
Will they follow through with an attack? I don't know. It would be a terrible thing for them to do, for the people of Taiwan, for the global economy and community, and also for themselves. There's no guarantee China would achieve their military goals, and in the process, their economy would crater. The industrialized nations with whom reciprocal trade forms the backbone of their economy would react with sanctions. It would backfire spectacularly and have global ramifications.
A lot of the experts and talking heads are saying that they don't think this will escalate into an all-out war - yet. However, the experts have gotten a lot wrong on China in recent years. I think they overestimate Xi's pragmatism and underestimate the control that he has over cooler heads in the CCP. I'm not saying that I think it's imminent this week, but we are much closer to war than we should be.
No need to discuss if Xi is failing as that is a topic for another discussion. I will say that China's position towards Taiwan has been the same for decades. No need to suddenly flex muscle. The only difference is the U.S. now exploiting the tension.
If you don't get why China is getting all riled up, you don't understand the situation. China is making a mountain of a molehill because their entire domestic situation, in the macro, is terrible. Declining birthrate, slowing economy, roving lockdowns, meddling in commerce and real estate, the list goes on. People aren't happy, or hopeful. Xi staked his legacy on making China strong and respected - he's failed miserably at the latter, as he's managed to undo so much of the influence China had gained in the last couple decades and point its trajectory downwards. The grand, fatalistic, fiery language China has been using in recent years whenever confronted with any perceived slight is a mechanism of insecurity, meant to project as unassailable might.
They haven't been able to force or manipulate their way out of their self-induced crises, so what can he do to assert himself? Well, he's been insisting for years that he would take Taiwan back by force if necessary, and has shown he's an impatient, rash, and driven by his own ego and legacy.
I opined a few times over the last couple years that China's window to make this the "Chinese century" is closing, and the avenues are shutting down, one by one. Right now, "taking back" Taiwan probably looks like the sort of (literally) violent jolt that their situation needs, to wake up their people, and strike terror in its adversaries. Making a big deal over her visit was a way to put the US in a position where it would basically have to follow through with her visit lest it make them look weakened, and in turn give them an excuse at home and among their allies to flex their military might.
Will they follow through with an attack? I don't know. It would be a terrible thing for them to do, for the people of Taiwan, for the global economy and community, and also for themselves. There's no guarantee China would achieve their military goals, and in the process, their economy would crater. The industrialized nations with whom reciprocal trade forms the backbone of their economy would react with sanctions. It would backfire spectacularly and have global ramifications.
A lot of the experts and talking heads are saying that they don't think this will escalate into an all-out war - yet. However, the experts have gotten a lot wrong on China in recent years. I think they overestimate Xi's pragmatism and underestimate the control that he has over cooler heads in the CCP. I'm not saying that I think it's imminent this week, but we are much closer to war than we should be.
we're not that close yet, but maybe it'll be closer if we send harris next, and more fleets to the region. good luck to the people over there
No need to discuss if Xi is failing as that is a topic for another discussion. I will say that China's position towards Taiwan has been the same for decades. No need to suddenly flex muscle. The only difference is the U.S. now exploiting the tension.
China turned hostile towards Taiwan when they elected in DPP.
Before you respond that is Taiwans fault, it doesn't matter who's fault it is. The point is that China changed its position.
we're not that close yet, but maybe it'll be closer if we send harris next, and more fleets to the region. good luck to the people over there
You think China will let the US dictate when they attack? If China wants to invade, it will invade when China feels ready not as a response to a US action.
NATO member ally of Turkey is the most rational. To just stay neutral.
And the one visiting Taiwan did nothing for San Francisco! Truly wondering if that is the political representative's own fault. Pelosi is an agent of that area of California.
Turkey is an interesting one. I only put in the Neutral camp because it doesn’t fit in either camps, but it isn’t exactly neutral. It wants to build its OWN camp, relic of the Ottoman Empire and extends its influence to other Turkish states within the region. That’s why it doesn’t really get along well with almost anyone… how is that “rational”?
For example, it voted along with the West to oust Russia out of the UN HR council earlier this year. It also joined the West in Oct 2021 in being concerned with the Uyghur’s situation. On the other hand, it also has disagreements with the EU and the U.S. over human rights and other geopolitical issues.
Turkey has probably been the biggest benefactor from this conflict. Proof that the doctrine of neutrality works. A course they have clearly ticked off European powers with the lack of united front, but hey what's new. They've been doing so since the Ottoman days.
I do wonder what the purpose of the Taiwan visit was. No offence but she is only the speaker of the house and has no direct influence of foreign relations. Good chance she will not be in the position after November elections. Just seems like a bunch of trouble for nothing. Not sure why China is getting riled up over Pelosi. Simply stating “she is not worth our energy” would have been sufficient.
I doubt it… turkey’s inflation this year is like 80% over last year and it’s currency has depreciated a lot. This helps exports but definitely hurts the local economy as well.
The question is why the visit to Taiwan ? Why now? Why provoke China now, right before mid-terms? What do the Dems have to gain with this? Is she purposely stirring up trouble for Taiwan ? That would be my guess.
I think the geography of Palestine is splendid. Deserts and the sort of Mediterranean rocky scrub they you also see in CA are my favorite environment. My issue is 100% with the people, as I noted in my follow-up to Ice_Major. I'm aware that this puts me at odds with a lot of people I otherwise generally agree with, and that it's not necessarily a popular opinion to have, but I think it's better that I'm honest about it than pretend I have no issues with Palestine or support the Palestinians' cause. If I were in any position where I had to make a decision on their situation, I'd most likely recuse myself because I'm aware that my bias would most likely affect my judgement. It's probably the only group or nation in the world I have this strong an opinion about.
Every other country on the list is one that supports or gets support from Palestine. The US and Europe send them all manner of fiscal support and they get nothing but love from the Western left, but then they turn around and support restrictive, repressive nations that undermine their benefactors based on ideology. This is where the "contemptible" part comes in, to me.
I've never been to Palestine, so I can't say much about the geography. I've only known a few Palestinians, and my impression has been favorable though I've never really talked politics with them. I get what you're saying about personal experiences possibly coloring opinions about policy and such. I also don't see their position as contemptible. There are legitimate grievances and they are levied against a state that has received far more fiscal support from the US and Europe, so it's a tricky question. It's a bad situation in many ways.
The question is why the visit to Taiwan ? Why now? Why provoke China now, right before mid-terms? What do the Dems have to gain with this? Is she purposely stirring up trouble for Taiwan ? That would be my guess.
"The Chinese army crackdown on the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests killed at least 10,000 people, according to newly released UK documents." LINK
Human Rights ?
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