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Developed, democratic nations in the West who are open to immigrants will have their economies continue to grow for much longer as they attract investors and innovators leaving the countries with higher birth rates. I’m sure the CCP would love to “call home” the tens of millions of ethnic Chinese living overseas for “patriotic reasons” but except for those with a strong financial incentive to move to mainland China, there’s going to be almost no immigration and they will have to contend with a declining population. Much of the world may have to rethink concepts of multiculturalism unless they want the same thing to happen to them. I bet down the road, though, immigration won’t be the guarantee of population growth it once was since birth rates are falling in most of the world except for most of Africa and a few other countries if I remember right. Countries with the best technology sectors and the most automation will probably be the best equipped to deal with an aging population, as well as a large, well funded healthcare sector to support the elderly. China is not looking good in this regard
I would think that countries that ARE multicultural will have an advantage in attracting workers from those undeveloped nations with high birth rates. Is that what you were saying? Advantages to attracting population would be:
- Established large communities of expats from developing nations.
- Liberal immigration policies (and a history of them).
- Excess wealth.
- Good (or reasonably good) treatment of immigrants/foreigners.
- Safe working conditions.
- Reasonably strict environmental standards and somewhere to live that won't give you cancer.
China has none of these. I see no way out of this mess.
Makes you wonder if all those overseas "Chinese police" stations will start kidnapping Chinese expats and forcibly repatriating them to China, and not just "vanishing" their citizens who dare to speak out against the PRC?
I'd say that is too radical, even for China, but--given the history of the PRC, and where Pooh Bear is driving it--I hesitate to put anything past Xi. I mean, could anyone have guessed that Putin would be bombing Ukrainians in 2008?
I would think that countries that ARE multicultural will have an advantage in attracting workers from those undeveloped nations with high birth rates. Is that what you were saying? Advantages to attracting population would be:
- Established large communities of expats from developing nations.
- Liberal immigration policies (and a history of them).
- Excess wealth.
- Good (or reasonably good) treatment of immigrants/foreigners.
- Safe working conditions.
- Reasonably strict environmental standards and somewhere to live that won't give you cancer.
China has none of these. I see no way out of this mess.
Makes you wonder if all those overseas "Chinese police" stations will start kidnapping Chinese expats and forcibly repatriating them to China, and not just "vanishing" their citizens who dare to speak out against the PRC?
I'd say that is too radical, even for China, but--given the history of the PRC, and where Pooh Bear is driving it--I hesitate to put anything past Xi. I mean, could anyone have guessed that Putin would be bombing Ukrainians in 2008?
We saw with the Jamal Khashoggi incident that things we never thought were possible can be carried out by diplomats on foreign soil. I think think the CCP’s capabilities or probably almost any countries are not advanced enough to do something like this on a large scale but the real problem is the element of fear that they use to their advantage. They control essentially all Chinese language media worldwide, people with different viewpoints overseas are threatened with their own family members used as hostages by the state to force compliance. I wouldn’t doubt the CCP would be very persuasive to convince some people to go back to mainland China if they feel helpless to continue a life overseas. The idea of being excommunicated from your own community as an immigrant in a foreign land sounds terrifying but it’s probably a real possibility because of the forced compliance that the CCP imposes all over the world. I can’t imagine what living with that is like. I hope things change for the better
OTOH, considering the one child (mostly males, it turned out) policy they ran for some years, this is not exactly a big head scratcher.
in case anyone didn't know, the one child policy is absolutely necessary in order to reverse the adverse effects of mao's honor mother policy (in case you didn't know, chinese people have on avg 5 to 10 children under that policy for at least couple of decades)
now that those policies are history, i would think it make sense to promote 2-3 children as they have started doing.
Let me get it straight. According to you
1. Turkey saw a 300% improvement in standard of living from 2000 to 2013 and then living standard collapsed.
2. Argentina saw a 400% improvement in standard of living from 2002 to 2011. And in 2015 to 2017 Argentina was richer than Poland.
3. 4% inflation is massive, hence Japans standard of living fell by 20% in 2022.
4. Russia is not normal, Iran is not normal, oil states are not normal, so their movement in nominal GDP doesn't count.
Lol those aren't my arguments at all. Nominal GDP per capita doesn't represent standard of living 100%, it's just more accurate than PPP per capita which is a load of horse****.
And Russia is not normal because of the war. Iran is not normal because it's got two currencies, everybody knows that. Oil states are not normal because they just are not.
Lol those aren't my arguments at all. Nominal GDP per capita doesn't represent standard of living 100%, it's just more accurate than PPP per capita which is a load of horse****.
And Russia is not normal because of the war. Iran is not normal because it's got two currencies, everybody knows that. Oil states are not normal because they just are not.
You are not an authority. Just because you think nominal is more accurate than GDP per capita PPP doesn't make it true.
If you had accepted PPP like everyone else, then you would be able explain the movements in countries like Iran, Russia and oil states. And you would definitely have a better argument for Argentina than GDP per capita doesn't properly represent standard of living.
You are not an authority. Just because you think nominal is more accurate than GDP per capita PPP doesn't make it true.
If you had accepted PPP like everyone else, then you would be able explain the movements in countries like Iran, Russia and oil states. And you would definitely have a better argument for Argentina than GDP per capita doesn't properly represent standard of living.
There's a reason why there were reports about Taiwan and Korea overtaking Japan in nominal GDP per capita last year, but none about Taiwan and Korea overtaking Japan in PPP per capita like in 2010 or something and is now 20k higher than Japan. I guess we Asians are more practical.
I think the world wide population decline will hit China particularly hard, although we all know other countries will experience the same thing.
Over a long period of time, measured in decades, people will migrate to areas where they are welcome and where they can find work. But proximity counts a lot with migration. From North Africa it is Europe and from South America it is The US.
I think the world wide population decline will hit China particularly hard, although we all know other countries will experience the same thing.
Over a long period of time, measured in decades, people will migrate to areas where they are welcome and where they can find work. But proximity counts a lot with migration. From North Africa it is Europe and from South America it is The US.
Where will Asians go?
As part of making atonement for colonial and racist past America and Europeans are more open to outsiders moving in and marrying locals. In Asia where would that social condition match with a need for immigrants?
There's a reason why there were reports about Taiwan and Korea overtaking Japan in nominal GDP per capita last year, but none about Taiwan and Korea overtaking Japan in PPP per capita like in 2010 or something and is now 20k higher than Japan. I guess we Asians are more practical.
There were plenty of reports about South Korea and Taiwan surpassing Japan in PPP terms, for instance Based on the prediction of International Monetary Fund Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) figures, the report predicted that Korea's GDP per capita in 2015 will be US$38,760, which is close to that of Japan (US$39,108), and Korea's GDP per capita in 2016 will exceed that of Japan in 2016 (US$39,669) by US$39,828.
Also, is that your best argument? We should ignore all the problems with nominal GDP per capita and use it because you believe news media use nominal more often?
Fact is that PPP numbers most of the time make sense. Unlike you, I don't need to say a country can't be analyzed for reason A or B. For most countries GDP per capita PPP will directly correlate with standard of living. There are some exceptions, but unlike you I can explain what factor is pushing the GDP up or down. For instance, authoritarian countries might inflate their GDP and some countries have very large current account surplus.
If you think I am wrong then find some cases where the PPP number cannot be explained.
There were plenty of reports about South Korea and Taiwan surpassing Japan in PPP terms, for instance Based on the prediction of International Monetary Fund Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) figures, the report predicted that Korea's GDP per capita in 2015 will be US$38,760, which is close to that of Japan (US$39,108), and Korea's GDP per capita in 2016 will exceed that of Japan in 2016 (US$39,669) by US$39,828.
Also, is that your best argument? We should ignore all the problems with nominal GDP per capita and use it because you believe news media use nominal more often?
Fact is that PPP numbers most of the time make sense. Unlike you, I don't need to say a country can't be analyzed for reason A or B. For most countries GDP per capita PPP will directly correlate with standard of living. There are some exceptions, but unlike you I can explain what factor is pushing the GDP up or down. For instance, authoritarian countries might inflate their GDP and some countries have very large current account surplus.
If you think I am wrong then find some cases where the PPP number cannot be explained.
There were a small number of reports in Korea but they are very bitter about anything Japan so that’s understandable. There were few to no reports in Taiwan because we know PPP is complete bull****.
I already found some cases. Turkey’s PPP per capita is a joke for example. And Israel’s PPP per capita is also way too low when Israel’s economy is doing very well. And explain Italy and New Zealand to me then. Italy is expensive as **** and income is awful, how come it’s got a larger PPP than NZ?
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