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The demographer I mention studying this, well, at least 1 of them is Chinese, in China. He is the one that first went around collecting numbers himself straight from sources, then later pointed out that the numbers had "magically" changed when released by the statistics bureau. He was putting out numbers three years ago that predicted this. His numbers are worse still. I somehow forsee the official numbers slowly continuing to move toward his numbers.
numbers doesn't matter, you can always make statistic to fit your narrative easily.
let me give you an example
the population decline is actually a ccp propaganda!
they want to show the world that their gdp per capita is sky high as it fits with their poverty alleviation campaign!
how do you make that number sky high? well it's harder to make up a high gdp given the covid policies for almost the whole year. saying the population decline will do the trick!!
numbers doesn't matter, you can always make statistic to fit your narrative easily.
let me give you an example
the population decline is actually a ccp propaganda!
they want to show the world that their gdp per capita is sky high as it fits with their poverty alleviation campaign!
how do you make that number sky high? well it's harder to make up a high gdp given the covid policies for almost the whole year. saying the population decline will do the trick!!
Except that even you could shoot down your example fake argument by pointing out that a population decline of 0.06% isn't going to move the needle on per capita GDP.
So, no, you can't make always make statistics fit your narrative.
When Chinese start saying "numbers don't matter" you know something is badly off the rails in the propaganda machine. That's basically sacrilegious in our household.
I assume opening up to jumpstart the economy probably means quite a few people, especially elderly, will die via covid or covid-related complications, so this year isn't going to be much good either. However, it's hard to tell how long these trends will hold. I do think with the removal of covid restrictions, it's pretty likely that the Chinese economy will see decent growth this year and will continue to do at least moderate growth for the next several years unless something drastic or dramatically stupid happens. I think the country is in a fairly decent spot for at least the near term of the next several years with the global economy opening back up, which is especially important to China given its major exports, the substantial connections China has been building with much of the developing world (and the likelihood of Chinese automakers and other industrial exports overtaking European and Japanese automakers and other such in key growth regions like Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa), the massive weakening of Russia which has allowed China to cement much stronger ties in Central Asia and to cut fantastic deals on petroleum and other raw goods and greatly fill up their strategic petroleum reserve at cut rate prices. However, who knows if that likely economic growth will come with it any change in fertility rate or notable change in life expectancy. From the Chinese interwebs, there appears to be a bit of hubbub of importing Russian widows to help with that which is pretty dark.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-08-2023 at 12:59 PM..
numbers doesn't matter, you can always make statistic to fit your narrative easily.
let me give you an example
the population decline is actually a ccp propaganda!
they want to show the world that their gdp per capita is sky high as it fits with their poverty alleviation campaign!
how do you make that number sky high? well it's harder to make up a high gdp given the covid policies for almost the whole year. saying the population decline will do the trick!!
This is the first time I've heard anyone opine that the population decline is propaganda to make the economy look better, probably because it's nonsensical.
Except that even you could shoot down your example fake argument by pointing out that a population decline of 0.06% isn't going to move the needle on per capita GDP.
So, no, you can't make always make statistics fit your narrative.
When Chinese start saying "numbers don't matter" you know something is badly off the rails in the propaganda machine. That's basically sacrilegious in our household.
hehe, i have to admit that i purposely baited for a reply with that number.
having worked in census and studied statistic, I can tell you that such a percentage is insignificant. It's actually way more accurate to call the population static rather than declined.
and yes, you can always make statistics fit your narrative. it definitely moves the needle on per capita GDP when you have that massive of a population. those so called "china experts" should study statistics first before getting into geopolitics.
hehe, i have to admit that i purposely baited for a reply with that number.
Population decline doesn't happen linearly, it starts slow and then speeds up every year.
Someone that claims to know statistics should know that and don't make a silly point about the population is currently dropping slowly.
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That's basically sacrilegious in our household.
