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hehe, i have to admit that i purposely baited for a reply with that number.
having worked in census and studied statistic, I can tell you that such a percentage is insignificant. It's actually way more accurate to call the population static rather than declined.
and yes, you can always make statistics fit your narrative. it definitely moves the needle on per capita GDP when you have that massive of a population. those so called "china experts" should study statistics first before getting into geopolitics.
I guess you can make numbers fit any narrative, but the more of a stretch it is, the less believable and contradictory your narrative is. I think in truth, the population decline probably did hit faster than had been projected in the last couple of decades. That's understandable given how rapid change was and how stochastic things are.
Population decline hit China literally at the same time as it hit Korea and Taiwan, aka a good 30 years too early for a developing country whose GDP per capita is smaller than 20% of that of the US, but of course a particular group of people on a specific kind of paycheck have to go extreme lengths to spin it as something positive, lol.
It’d be admirable effort if it wasn’t so sad and pathetic.
Last edited by Greysholic; 02-12-2023 at 07:50 PM..
The difference is these countries are developed countries. China is a developing country.
It's true China will get old before it gets rich.
However countries like Greece are on the verge of exiting developed country status at the same time as and partly due to a declining population. It's even worse in eastern Europe, which was neither developed nor developing. (I prefer the old term "second world".) Nevermind countries like Thailand which have the same birth rate as China and are less developed.
Every country on earth will eventually have to contend with this problem. The countries that got rich before they got old are few in number, probably fewer than thirty, and that includes a lot of small European countries.
However countries like Greece are on the verge of exiting developed country status at the same time as and partly due to a declining population. It's even worse in eastern Europe, which was neither developed nor developing. (I prefer the old term "second world".) Nevermind countries like Thailand which have the same birth rate as China and are less developed.
Every country on earth will eventually have to contend with this problem. The countries that got rich before they got old are few in number, probably fewer than thirty, and that includes a lot of small European countries.
Exactly, the examples of Greece, Eastern Europe and Thailand is why China will never be on America's level. It will be another Brazil/Russia, not America.
Now if they choose the path of Brazil at least everybody can still live in peace and could maintain a somewhat positive image (to those who don't know any better anyway), unfortunately China is more like Russia.
Nevermind countries like Thailand which have the same birth rate as China and are less developed.
This is not true.
Thailand is not less developed than China. As you can see below GDP per capita (PPP) is similar. And if you take into account that China might be inflating it's figures, then it could be Thailand that is more developed.
And the birth rate is not the same. Birth rate per 1000 people in China is 6.77, which is among the lowest in the world. Thailand is low and declining too, but it is around 9.
Thailand is not less developed than China. As you can see below GDP per capita (PPP) is similar. And if you take into account that China might be inflating it's figures, then it could be Thailand that is more developed.
And the birth rate is not the same. Birth rate per 1000 people in China is 6.77, which is among the lowest in the world. Thailand is low and declining too, but it is around 9.
Declining birthrates in socialist countries are offset by the higher birthrates in non-socialist countries.
{If a country has a "socialist insecurity" program, it's socialist.}
Ironically, back in the 15th - 19th centuries, Europe's surplus population was exported across the planet, forming colonies in Australia, Asia, Africa and the Americas.
Now, the surplus from those areas may be emigrating to Europe (and other "socialist paradises").
- - - -
In the coming decades, when India's population exceeds China, we may see a dramatic shift. But to what?
Developed, democratic nations in the West who are open to immigrants will have their economies continue to grow for much longer as they attract investors and innovators leaving the countries with higher birth rates. I’m sure the CCP would love to “call home” the tens of millions of ethnic Chinese living overseas for “patriotic reasons” but except for those with a strong financial incentive to move to mainland China, there’s going to be almost no immigration and they will have to contend with a declining population. Much of the world may have to rethink concepts of multiculturalism unless they want the same thing to happen to them. I bet down the road, though, immigration won’t be the guarantee of population growth it once was since birth rates are falling in most of the world except for most of Africa and a few other countries if I remember right. Countries with the best technology sectors and the most automation will probably be the best equipped to deal with an aging population, as well as a large, well funded healthcare sector to support the elderly. China is not looking good in this regard
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