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Developed, democratic nations in the West who are open to immigrants will have their economies continue to grow for much longer as they attract investors and innovators leaving the countries with higher birth rates. I’m sure the CCP would love to “call home” the tens of millions of ethnic Chinese living overseas for “patriotic reasons” but except for those with a strong financial incentive to move to mainland China, there’s going to be almost no immigration and they will have to contend with a declining population. Much of the world may have to rethink concepts of multiculturalism unless they want the same thing to happen to them. I bet down the road, though, immigration won’t be the guarantee of population growth it once was since birth rates are falling in most of the world except for most of Africa and a few other countries if I remember right. Countries with the best technology sectors and the most automation will probably be the best equipped to deal with an aging population, as well as a large, well funded healthcare sector to support the elderly. China is not looking good in this regard
Most of the world isn't entertaining the concept of multiculturalism. That is concept limited to a very small number of countries, namely in the West.
It's the same with the notion that the world is facing mass immigration. In reality, a handful of countries are experiencing mass immigration. The vast majority of countries are not seeing the same situation. While countries like the United States will continue to have a demographic change within the next few decades, in most countries the average person will look as they do now.
Latvia and Slovakia aren't that rich, but Turkey is poor as ****.
Ruble has barely been traded after the sanctions so it's not really that relevant.
Ruble has definitely been traded
"At the end of 2022, Russia and India agreed to switch to trade settlements in their national currencies. Over the past year, trade turnover between Moscow and New Delhi has grown significantly and both intend to increase these volumes during 2023"
Also, Russia is not the only country that has capital controls. China and lots of other countries have it too. So why do insist on using an indicator that benefit countries with capital controls over countries that doesn't like Thailand?
Most of the world isn't entertaining the concept of multiculturalism. That is concept limited to a very small number of countries, namely in the West.
It's the same with the notion that the world is facing mass immigration. In reality, a handful of countries are experiencing mass immigration. The vast majority of countries are not seeing the same situation. While countries like the United States will continue to have a demographic change within the next few decades, in most countries the average person will look as they do now.
I should have said “reconsider” maybe rather than “rethink” to avoid confusion. What you elaborated was the point I was trying to make. Most Asian countries as far as I know usually only allow immigrants from the same ethnic background to immigrate and gain citizenship. I.e. Japan will allow Japanese-Brazilians and Japanese-Peruvians and China will allow ethnic Chinese from Malaysia and Taiwan to move to the mainland, but there is no way that’s enough people to create population growth with the low birth rates and aging population. A lot of people from countries like Nigeria or Afghanistan or Somalia might be open to starting a new life in countries in East Asia and these countries might have to change their discriminatory immigration policies if they don’t want to deal with the economic decline of a shrinking workforce relative to an aging population dependant on the state for medicine and assisted living
"At the end of 2022, Russia and India agreed to switch to trade settlements in their national currencies. Over the past year, trade turnover between Moscow and New Delhi has grown significantly and both intend to increase these volumes during 2023"
Also, Russia is not the only country that has capital controls. China and lots of other countries have it too. So why do insist on using an indicator that benefit countries with capital controls over countries that doesn't like Thailand?
Sure it's still traded, even North Korean Won is traded, but it's in very small volume which makes it pointless. A lot of imported goods and services aren't available in Russia now due to sanctions.
I'm not using an indicator that benefits countries with capital controls. Nominal is more accurate because it just is. Taiwan isn't richer than Australia, the Czech Republic isn't richer than Japan, and Italy isn't richer than New Zealand.
China will allow ethnic Chinese from Malaysia and Taiwan to move to the mainland,
Technically China has always allowed Taiwanese people to move to China, they even offer perks and stuff, but few bite. According to 2020 PRC census fewer than 150k Taiwanese people live in China.
Sure it's still traded, even North Korean Won is traded, but it's in very small volume which makes it pointless. A lot of imported goods and services aren't available in Russia now due to sanctions.
No, it is not a very small amount. From the same link "At a recent meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Jaishankar said that the countries plan to soon bring trade to US$30 billion"
30 billion dollars is not an insignificant amount and that is just India. Russia obviously trade with other countries as well. You might have confused the futures market with the real market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greysholic
I'm not using an indicator that benefits countries with capital controls. Nominal is more accurate because it just is. Taiwan isn't richer than Australia, the Czech Republic isn't richer than Japan, and Italy isn't richer than New Zealand.
You are using an indicator that benefits countries with capital controls. Capital controls restrict people from selling their currency, which makes the currency stronger than it would be if it was traded freely, which makes their nominal GDP higher. When Russia restricted selling of the rubble, then it made the currency artificially strong, which makes Russia nominal GDP per capita higher. Other countries like China and Argentina have done this for decades.
Argentina is an example of where nominal totally fails. According to nominal GDP per capita, it went from $2579 to $12848 in just 9 years. This would make the Kirchner government among the most successful government in the world. However, these gains were due to strong exports and capital controls, not because Argentinians improved their standard of living by 400%. GDP per capita PPP only increased by 60% in the same period.
Venezuela also had similar growth and capital controls. This lead to Venezuela having a higher nominal GDP per capita than Latvia in 2014. This is several years after Latvia recovered and the same year we heard about toilet paper shortages in Venezuela. Saying that Venezuela had higher standard of living than Latvia in 2014 is absurd and illustrate why we don't use nominal GDP per capita to show standard of living.
Not sure why a decline in a population of 1.4 billion (most living in an area the size of the eastern third of the US) is bad news for anyone. But I suppose the modern news narrative is to portray every event in the world as a major problem.
If it bleeds it leads.
OTOH, considering the one child (mostly males, it turned out) policy they ran for some years, this is not exactly a big head scratcher.
"At a recent meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Jaishankar said that the countries plan to soon bring trade to US$30 billion"
30 billion is not an insignificant amount and that is just India. Russia obviously trade with other countries as well. You might have confused the futures market with the real market.
And yes, you are using an indicator that benefits countries with capital controls. Capital controls restrict people from selling their currency, which makes the currency stronger than it would be if it was traded freely, which makes their nominal GDP higher. When Russia restricted selling of the rubble, then it made the currency artificial strong, which makes Russia nominal GDP per capita higher. Other countries like China and Argentina has done this for decades.
Argentina is another example where nominal totally fails. According to nominal GDP per capita, it went from $2579 to $12848 in just 9 years. This could only happen because capital controls in Argentina made the currency artificially strong. Using GDP per capita PPP, it just went from $8895 to $14200.
Capital controls can restrict people from buying their currency too. Taiwan also has capital control which is one of the reasons why TWD has always been weak (though I guess technically that's not called capital control, just currency manipulation). And even with the insane capital control Russia's nominal GDP per capita only went from 12k to 14k, which is still really **** and reflects the Russian economy better than its PPP per capita suggests (>30k which is a joke).
And Idk what you mean by Argentina. Argentine peso is hilariously weak. It's on free fall mode. Its nominal GDP per capita 9 years ago was 10k according to IMF.
The only country whose nominal GDP per capita isn't accurate is Iran.
Capital controls can restrict people from buying their currency too. Taiwan also has capital control which is one of the reasons why TWD has always been weak
Sure, but it is almost always used to restrict people from selling their currency.
Also, Taiwan does not have capital controls at all. Taiwan imposes no foreign exchange (FX) controls on trade, insurance, and authorized investment transactions. Similarly, it does not restrict the repatriation of capital and profits related to direct or portfolio investment, provided that such investment has been permitted or approved by the Taiwan authorities. https://www.export.gov/apex/article2...hange-Controls
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And Idk what you mean by Argentina. Argentine peso is hilariously weak. It's on free fall mode. Its nominal GDP per capita 9 years ago was 10k according to IMF.
As I said, nominal GDP went from $2579 to $12848 from 2002 to 2011. $12848 is still not that high, but it is a massive improvement from 2002.
Answer these two questions.
1. Do you seriously think Argentinians improved their standard of living by 400% from 2002 to 2011?
2. Do you seriously think Venezuela had a higher standard of living than Latvia in 2014?
Nominal GDP punishes all poor countries as they are cheaper than rich countries, but that is a ridiculous reason to use nominal GDP per capita. It does make Argentina's and Venezuela's GDP lower, but it makes other countries like Thailand or Vietnam absurdly low. And the comparison we were talking about was Thailand and China.
As I said, nominal GDP went from $2579 to $12848 from 2001 to 2011. $12848 is still not that high, but it is a massive improvement from 2001.
Answer these two questions.
1. Do you seriously think Argentinians improved their standard of living by 400% from 2001 to 2011?
2. Do you seriously think Venezuela had a higher standard of living than Latvia in 2014?
1. Idk, maybe. Argentina's crisis was in 1999 or so, so from 2001 to 2011 they had nowhere to go but up.
2. GDP figures do not reflect standard of living for petrol states so Venezuela (and gulf states like Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Brunei etc.) is an outlier.
You answer these two questions then.
1. Do you seriously think Turkey has a higher standard of living than Slovakia, Latvia, Croatia etc.?
2. Do you seriously think Czech Republic has a higher standard of living than Japan?
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