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Dexter Filkins, usually in war zones, has been in Asia instead.
A lot of territory encroaching - not just Taiwan, but maybe with a special eye on Taiwan.
A Dangerous Game Over Taiwan
For decades, China has coveted its island neighbor. Is Xi Jinping ready to seize it?
Western experts say that Xi’s ultimate ambition is for China to supplant the United States as the world’s preëminent power. His goal is what he calls China’s “great rejuvenation,” the recovery of national power, pride, and territory that fell away in the nineteenth century, with much of it surrendered to the West. Making Taiwan part of China, Xi has said, is one of his project’s crucial chapters... https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...me-over-taiwan
Well, we all gotta have ambitions, I guess.
But China could not have evolved without access to European and American markets and cannot continue to thrive without continued access. So, this is just me speaking...I wouldn't jack around with my trading partners too much.
We saw what happened after China took over Hong Kong, and eventually tried to impose its repressive policies. Do they really want to repeat that with Taiwan? I suppose they think they'd gain a nice, plump little source of tax revenue to milk. It wouldn't be that simple, though.
We saw what happened after China took over Hong Kong, and eventually tried to impose its repressive policies. Do they really want to repeat that with Taiwan? I suppose they think they'd gain a nice, plump little source of tax revenue to milk. It wouldn't be that simple, though.
you didn't know that hong kong pays $0 tax to china?
well, at least we have tw paying top $ for old weapons to the US. I hope that reduces my tax bill and boosts my defense stocks/funds
I think Ukraine is a great cautionary tale to would-be superpowers. China has plenty of problems on it's plate, and doesn't need a losing naval/amphibious/air war added to them. Nobody in their right mind wants China to try to invade Taiwan, except possibly anti-China factions in the West who would love to see China's rise thwarted by Chinese killing Chinese again, like prior to WWII.
The only real threat of a Taiwan invasion would come from a serious chronic threat to Xi's power, where he needs to drum up support that a wartime footing would gain him--until the war ended up a losing quagmire with the occasional Taiwanese missiles falling on major Chinese cities, and the people starting to ask: "Why are we suffering all this for one man's ambitions?"
For that to happen, there would have to be at least 6 months worth of lead time for China to deploy a serious invasion force. I don't see any serious threats to Xi's grip on power, that fit that profile, where he is going to feel the need--and have the ability--to wag the dog.
Anyway, I sure hope it never comes to hostilities. I really like Taiwan and China and I admire both their peoples (if not their leaders). China has suffered a lot of mismanagement (from time to time), but has still lifted itself to great power status, and far outstripped India--the only other country with the same size/population. Taiwan is the poster child for how to peacefully transition to a representative government, and is a very advanced society. It would be an unspeakable tragedy for them to go to war.
you didn't know that hong kong pays $0 tax to china?
well, at least we have tw paying top $ for old weapons to the US. I hope that reduces my tax bill and boosts my defense stocks/funds
LOL
I suspect that this thread is designed to flush you out from your hibernation.
Welcome back and enjoy a good discourse.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432
I think Ukraine is a great cautionary tale to would-be superpowers. China has plenty of problems on it's plate, and doesn't need a losing naval/amphibious/air war added to them. Nobody in their right mind wants China to try to invade Taiwan, except possibly anti-China factions in the West who would love to see China's rise thwarted by Chinese killing Chinese again, like prior to WWII.
The only real threat of a Taiwan invasion would come from a serious chronic threat to Xi's power, where he needs to drum up support that a wartime footing would gain him--until the war ended up a losing quagmire with the occasional Taiwanese missiles falling on major Chinese cities, and the people starting to ask: "Why are we suffering all this for one man's ambitions?"
For that to happen, there would have to be at least 6 months worth of lead time for China to deploy a serious invasion force. I don't see any serious threats to Xi's grip on power, that fit that profile, where he is going to feel the need--and have the ability--to wag the dog.
Anyway, I sure hope it never comes to hostilities. I really like Taiwan and China and I admire both their peoples (if not their leaders). China has suffered a lot of mismanagement (from time to time), but has still lifted itself to great power status, and far outstripped India--the only other country with the same size/population. Taiwan is the poster child for how to peacefully transition to a representative government, and is a very advanced society. It would be an unspeakable tragedy for them to go to war.
The Americans who think this way, must be in the minority judging from the responses at this site.
Ian Bremmer, an American of non-Anglo-Saxon origin, says "the likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the near future is nearly zero." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Bremmer
~ youtube.com/watch?v=XPVtSHjs2yQ
Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused U.S. of trying to provoke war in Taiwan
Aug 21, 2022
LOL
I suspect that this thread is designed to flush you out from your hibernation.
Welcome back and enjoy a good discourse.
The Americans who think this way, must be in the minority judging from the responses at this site.
Ian Bremmer, an American of non-Anglo-Saxon origin, says "the likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the near future is nearly zero." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Bremmer
~ youtube.com/watch?v=XPVtSHjs2yQ
Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused U.S. of trying to provoke war in Taiwan
Aug 21, 2022
...........Ian Bremmer, an American of non-Anglo-Saxon origin, says "the likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the near future is nearly zero.".........
Ian Bremmer is another person who should be taken seriously.
Can China do that without major repercussion? Doubtful.
Plus it's still far, far easier for China to put those CCP-licking KMT (yeah...the same people that fought against the commies for years) via continued propaganda war against DPP. Not as hard as it seems when Tsai was literally fairly close to losing the last time around if not for the HK protest to really changed the mind of Taiwan people especially among the younger generation.
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