Atlanta --> GA a swing state? (construction, high school)

[drs72]

The Next Swing States: Arizona, Georgia, and Texas - Robert Schlesinger (usnews.com)

According to US News, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona will be the next swing states, with Georgia transitioning to swing state status by 2020. It only makes sense with Virginia and North Carolina recently emerging as swing states for the same reasons.

[berkeleylake]

Originally Posted by drs72

The Next Swing States: Arizona, Georgia, and Texas - Robert Schlesinger (usnews.com)

According to US News, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona will be the next swing states, with Georgia transitioning to swing state status by 2020. It only makes sense with Virginia and North Carolina recently emerging as swing states for the same reasons.

Good find to post here. The pointy-head political scientists in academia have been writing about this for a while already (for States with large, fast-growing minority populations becoming Swing)

[arjay57]

In Georgia you can't necessarily connect Red/Blue with conservative/liberal.

[alco89]

Originally Posted by Mirabella

The constitution (however interpreted) may be close by but the bible is closer. One day the Latinos and blacks will turn this state around for the good.

Oh no, why'd you have to say this! Get ready for some flack....

[Mutiny77]

Originally Posted by arjay57

In the South you can't necessarily connect Red/Blue with conservative/liberal.

There, I corrected that for you.

[arjay57]

Thanks, Mutiny. That's exactly right.

[K-SawDude]

Originally Posted by drs72

The Next Swing States: Arizona, Georgia, and Texas - Robert Schlesinger (usnews.com)

According to US News, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona will be the next swing states, with Georgia transitioning to swing state status by 2020. It only makes sense with Virginia and North Carolina recently emerging as swing states for the same reasons.

The other interesting data, of course, are the final results from the 2008 presidential:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Georgia: McCain vs. Obama

McCain beat Obama by only 5 points in GA. That's actually very close for a supposedly deep red state--one not really contested by Obama. And the demographics are only going to go further in a Democratic direction as each year passes.

I'm surprised more of the independents in this state, including the libertarians, haven't clued into the fact that it's been one-party Republican rule here for a while now. It would be nice to get more balance in the state legislature.

It does seem like GA will become swingier as the close-in suburbs like Cobb and Gwinnett become denser and diversify further. I'd bet it will be those suburbs that will eventually swing the state one way or another.

[atltechdude]

Originally Posted by Mutiny77

There, I corrected that for you.

True in many southern states blue is conservative and red is VERY conservative.

[bryantm3]

it was closer in 2008, but that was an unusual situation. in 2008 every state that was considered a swing state went for obama, minus missouri which appears to be becoming a red state. the democrats had the biggest margins they had in years. looking back at the huge differences in the 2000 and 2004 elections i can see why we're not considered a swing state.

2004: bush 58%, kerry 41%
2000: bush 55%, gore 43%

in 2012 i think the difference is probably going to be something like romney 53%, obama 47%, which is going to surprise a lot of people since it's a bad year for the democrats.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by arjay57

In Georgia you can't necessarily connect Red/Blue with conservative/liberal.

Thank you. Insert Democrat/Republican as well.

Anyone who is new to the area needs to read Zell Miller's book A National Party No More: The Conscience of a Conservative Democrat. I can remember a Georgia of not too long ago where Republican meant the country club executive crowd and was definitely in the minority. The state was overwhelmingly democrat. It was overwhelmingly conservative as well, but Georgia has always mixed that with a fair dose of progressiveness as hard as some who define that term today would believe.

Zell made it clear that the party moved too far to the left for a majority of southerners. That is why you see a number moving to the GOP, it hasn't been inherent in their political genetic makeup. This is the bible belt and you don't push certain traditions too hard for too long without a boomerang effect.

No one has mentioned it, but I know that one item that has galvanized many into the conservative fold is the abortion issue. Gay marriage is the talk these days, but pales to abortion on demand for conservative social issues. It is a litmus test for many southerners.