Georgia senate race? (Decatur, Washington: insurance, credit card, live in)

[Iconographer]

It will rain frogs before a Democrat gets elected in this state in the next election.

[workaholics]

The one rule in politics is to never say never. The odds are agains Nunn because of the state's partisan lean, but it's certainly possible for her to win if things go her way.

Positives for Nunn:
- She is the daughter of an iconic Georgia senator. As someone said, name recognition goes a long way
-All of her potential GOP rivals have at one time held some controversial views which she could use against them and win over moderates
-So far she has raised a hefty chunk of cash. Money is crucial.
-She's friends with the Bush family and could potentially get their endorsement. A good thing in Georgia
-She hasn't held elected office and has no record to be used against her.

Negatives for Nunn
-No democrat has won statewide office in GA since 2006. It will be a battle to win over voters who have become loyal Republicans
-The party out of power tends to do well during midterms. 1994, 2006, 2010 for example
-She hasn't held elected office which could be used to paint her as inexperienced

(I know I listed more positives than negatives, but the negatives are very very strong against her)

Also, Georgia isn't Alabama or Mississippi. Georgia has a growing base of minorities, progressives and suburban moderates that could be a strong coalition one day. Michelle Nunn could be the one to fire up this base, or she could be a total dud.

[wilful]

Originally Posted by LovinDecatur

It will rain frogs before a Democrat gets elected in this state in the next election.

If they run a tea party crazy like Paul Broun better get your umbrella out.

[earthlyfather]

I think we have had enough of academics. Not sure who I would support, or who might emerge on the Republican side, but please, no academics.

[magnetar]

LOL, I don't think our problems have to do with people being too educated. Until a few weeks ago you could've counted me in the column of folks who think a Democrat didn't stand a chance at winning statewide office in Georgia. I'm not so sure now though; all of the House Republicans running for Georgia's Senate seat just voted to keep the government shut down and to hit the debt ceiling. The "mainstream" Republican position has become incredibly far-right and extreme over the past three years and there's a significant number of people, especially in Atlanta and Savannah, hungry for a more centered approach. And they can't gerrymander a statewide race.

[Born 2 Roll]

With Georgia generally being a very-conservative state that is one of the main focal points of the Tea Party movement, Republicans SHOULD win this race going away or at-least by a substantial margin.

But with some of the very high-liability candidates that the GOP has in the running (namely Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey), with both the Georgia and National GOP continuing to be pulled off to the far-right by the most extremist right-leaning parts of the party, and with the GOP using political tactics that have taken assured victories and turned them into stunning political defeats at the behest of the most-extreme parts of the party, no GOP lead seems to be safe at this point, particularly with the bungling tag-team duo of Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey still on the prowl.

With the substantial demographic issues that the party seems to be facing, the GOP did not do itself any favors with the general public as a whole by appearing to advocate for a costly government shutdown and a potentially economically-castastrophic government default as a means of opposing an issue (Obamacare) that the party (the GOP) would have likely been running-up-the-score on in the court of public opinion had it not been for the shutdown and near-default that they (the GOP) are now seemingly taking the brunt of the blame on.

If the GOP does not do anything extremely foolish to screw themselves out of what should be a fairly certain victory in statewide races for U.S. Senate and Governor in 2014, the U.S. Senate now held by Saxby Chambliss should stay in GOP hands.

But with the state's demographics continuing to push Georgia towards being a 'majority-minority' state in the not-too-distant future and with Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn appearing to raise tons-of-money, expect to see Georgia Democrats use the 2014 U.S. Senate race as a prime opportunity to start rebuilding what is currently a totally non-existent statewide organization and pull slightly-closer to becoming more-competitive with the ultra-dominant Georgia GOP in statewide politics in the long-run.

2014 likely will not be a winning year for Georgia Democrats, but will most likely be a very-important rebuilding year for Georgia Democrats in which they make significant inroads into learning how to once-again be competitive in Georgia politics.

[workaholics]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

With Georgia generally being a very-conservative state that is one of the main focal points of the Tea Party movement, Republicans SHOULD win this race going away or at-least by a substantial margin.

But with some of the very high-liability candidates that the GOP has in the running (namely Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey), with both the Georgia and National GOP continuing to be pulled off to the far-right by the most extremist right-leaning parts of the party, and with the GOP using political tactics that have taken assured victories and turned them into stunning political defeats at the behest of the most-extreme parts of the party, no GOP lead seems to be safe at this point, particularly with the bungling tag-team duo of Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey still on the prowl.

With the substantial demographic issues that the party seems to be facing, the GOP did not do itself any favors with the general public as a whole by appearing to advocate for a costly government shutdown and a potentially economically-castastrophic government default as a means of opposing an issue (Obamacare) that the party (the GOP) would have likely been running-up-the-score on in the court of public opinion had it not been for the shutdown and near-default that they (the GOP) are now seemingly taking the brunt of the blame on.

If the GOP does not do anything extremely foolish to screw themselves out of what should be a fairly certain victory in statewide races for U.S. Senate and Governor in 2014, the U.S. Senate now held by Saxby Chambliss should stay in GOP hands.

But with the state's demographics continuing to push Georgia towards being a 'majority-minority' state in the not-too-distant future and with Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn appearing to raise tons-of-money, expect to see Georgia Democrats use the 2014 U.S. Senate race as a prime opportunity to start rebuilding what is currently a totally non-existent statewide organization and pull slightly-closer to becoming more-competitive with the ultra-dominant Georgia GOP in statewide politics in the long-run.

2014 likely will not be a winning year for Georgia Democrats, but will most likely be a very-important rebuilding year for Georgia Democrats in which they make significant inroads into learning how to once-again be competitive in Georgia politics.

Very good analysis. I agree entirely. Although even in this dry spell Democrats haven't totally collapsed. They still usually get over 40% of the vote in statewide elections. Even in 2010 Roy Barnes only lost by 10 points and in 2008 Jim Martin forced Saxby Chambliss into a runoff. Dems are stuck at around 40-45% of the vote, so they look competitive at first but they never finish the job. If they can swing about 5-10% of the electorate then they can win.

And as long as Nunn can make the senate race competitive, it will convince the national party to invest more time and money into Georgia which will help to rebuild the Democrats here.

[arjay57]

I haven't seen any of the big mules get involved yet other than maybe Perdue.

[westau]

Originally Posted by wilful

If they run a tea party crazy like Paul Broun better get your umbrella out.

You have to hate those people who want crazy things like a balanced budget don't you?

[KingJohn]

None of you are voting for Derrick Greyson?