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All southern metropolitan areas have slowed in this decade. Charlotte, Raleigh, and Dallas have also slowed according to the estimate. Dallas-Fort Worth added 108,000, down from over 150,000 the previous years before. The only one growing at roughly the same pace is Houston. Houston managed to eek out 138,000 (still down from past years). I figure it has a lot to do with the energy boom and growing trade at the Port of Houston. As for the others, their economies have still not fully recovered so it's easy to see why they have not regained the numerical increases they have seen. Another notable trend is the dramatic slowdown of southwestern cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix (like Atlanta slammed by over-reliance on real estate). It's still notable that Atlanta grew faster than I thought it would. It's also showing a CLEAR acceleration from the 2 years before. Almost 70,000 is a good number for a bad economy and is a number any northern city would kill for. Chicago added only 23,000 people for a measly 0.2% growth. What is stunning about Georgia is the decline of some of it's other metros. Augusta declined?? What gives? Dalton decreased. Macon decreased by almost 1% in one year. Atlanta is the only thing moving in Georgia with the exception of Columbus and Savannah.
I'd like to correct something I wrote here that isn't true. The Atlanta MSA has not accelerated in growth. It's actually roughly in line with 2011's gain and smaller than last years 80,000 gain. Until the job market picks up it won't return to the numbers seen in years past. This is not a uniquely Atlanta phenomenon. Most metros are seeing smaller growth than they have been.
That's amazing. Georgia really needs to focus on helping other cities like Columbus and Savannah grow. Georgia's 2nd tier cities have grown but nothing like they should IMO. Glad to see Columbus at #2 in the state though!
High speed passenger rail and high speed freight would help that a lot. GA is a big state in area.
This is why I think the true size of the Atlanta metro is more like 4.6 million. I rarely see Morgan tags flocking into Atlanta every morning. I don't see how that is apart of the Atlanta metro...that's literally like 40 miles East of downtown. Sprawlanta strikes again.
There's other entertainment/activity/work districts besides in-town Atlanta. In fact, more office and activity is outside the city. Places like Galleria, Perimeter, Windward, Kennessaw Town Center, the airport area, etc. So, you have to consider people actively commuting to those areas as well.
Anyway, most of the growth since the recession has been in the core metro, where infrastructure can absorb higher density and land is getting attractive for redevelopment due to land value. E.g. Cobb is pretty much fully developed and most growth in Cobb is redevelopment and increased density. Therefore, talking about the outer metro doesn't make much of a difference. At least when talking about growth by numbers. Of course, when talking about actual population, it makes even less of a difference.
Anybody know why Fulton's growth was underwhelming this year?? I figured it would pass the million mark.
I would guess because a lot of investment and redevelopment has shifted out of Fulton, and especially Atlanta, and into Smyrna and other areas where under-utilized land is more plentiful and density still supports high uses. There's still some redevelopment going on in Atlanta just South of I-20 but short-term that probably amounts to a population loss rather than gain as lower-income workers are getting displaced.
Gwinnett clearly will be Georgia's most populous county one day.
That's not too exciting. It's about 20 years behind Cobb, Dekalb and Fulton in terms of development, infrastructure and density. It just happens to be huge in area and it's still sprawling out. Once it runs out of room then Cobb, Fulton and Dekalb will surpass it in population again since they've been working on issues for twenty years that Gwinnett has just started grappling with. Highrise and midrise condos will really add up.
Gwinnett clearly will be Georgia's most populous county one day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by netdragon
That's not too exciting. It's about 20 years behind Cobb, Dekalb and Fulton in terms of development, infrastructure and density. It just happens to be huge in area and it's still sprawling out. Once it runs out of room then Cobb, Fulton and Dekalb will surpass it in population again since they've been working on issues for twenty years that Gwinnett has just started grappling with. Highrise and midrise condos will really add up.
netdragon, you make a good point about Gwinnett being larger in land area than Cobb and DeKalb counties (Gwinnett County is larger than North Fulton County in land area, but has less land area than Fulton County on the whole).
But one major thing that your statement seems to overlook is the effects of Gwinnett County's increasingly-large and fast-growing international community and the effects of Gwinnett County's highly-acclaimed school system on Gwinnett County's population growth rates.
There is a very-large international community (by most accounts, the largest international community in Georgia and one of the largest international communities in the entire Southeastern U.S.) that has gained a firm foothold in Gwinnett County largely on the strength of the quality of the schools which are very-highly regarded by Gwinnett's fast-growing international community of Latinos, Asians and Eastern Europeans as well as by African-Americans.
The firm foothold of Gwinnett's large Latino and Asian communities have led to even more Latinos and Asians moving to Gwinnett because of the pre-existence of those large communities within the county.
Gwinnett County's highly-regarded school system has also led to kind of a continuing acceleration of population growth in the county, particularly amongst minorities who are fueling most of Gwinnett County's population growth at this point.
Gwinnett County's continued fast-growing very-large international and minority communities (racial and ethnic minorities make up just under 60% of Gwinnett County's population at this point, a figure that is up from 1980 when minorities only made up 4% of Gwinnett County's population) will likely make it difficult for other large metro counties like Cobb and DeKalb to make up ground on Gwinnett County which is widely-recognized as one of the most-diverse counties in the entire U.S.
Born 2 Roll: In terms of density, Gwinnett is more like Forsyth and Cherokee counties. What happens when Gwinnett is out of land about 10-20 years from now like Cobb, Dekalb, and Fulton already are. What happens when Gwinnett residents start demanding things like walkability, transit, better roads, trails, etc? Things that have already been solved at these three counties? At the same time, Cobb Pkwy begins springing up high-rise and mid-rise along the new BRT line, since land is gone in Cumberland... Dekalb county keeps going vertical near the Perimeter and near midtown.
Gwinnett will slow down relatively and be solving the same problems that the other three counties have long since solved. Each new midrise or highrise condo that Cobb, Fulton or Dekalb add will be another few thousand people. Townhomes even really add up, and Smyrna is building them in droves. Smyrna is third most dense in metro Atlanta after Dunwoody and Atlanta, and it keeps getting denser. Marietta is no slouch either when it comes to density and the rest of Cobb is also doing denser infill.
Going vertical scales much better. At that point, Gwinnett will lag behind. And necessity is the mother of invention. I just don't see Gwinnett building up until it's already built out. After it's finished building out, it'll need to solve some fundamental issues before it can build up.
As far as school systems, Cobb has had that long before Gwinnett. It's what Cobb has always been known for. I don't see what the difference is. The real difference is that Cobb is out of land, and Gwinnett isn't. Yet, development is still ticking along in Cobb, just redevelopment at this point to denser development.
In conclusion, Gwinnett just won't keep up because it will eventually run out of land and that will slow it down for a while.
Last edited by netdragon; 03-27-2014 at 10:34 PM..
That's not too exciting. It's about 20 years behind Cobb, Dekalb and Fulton in terms of development, infrastructure and density. It just happens to be huge in area and it's still sprawling out. Once it runs out of room then Cobb, Fulton and Dekalb will surpass it in population again since they've been working on issues for twenty years that Gwinnett has just started grappling with. Highrise and midrise condos will really add up.
ummm.... don't think so...
Cobb is great, so I don't want to knock it, but your assertion Gwinnett is behind particularly in infrastructure is off the mark.
It is also about equally dense, if not more so, than Cobb in particular, because we still have a good bit of undeveloped land to the northeast Near Dacula. Gwinnett has 9 census tracts with a density over 5000ppsm. Cobb has 5, admittedly 2 are in Smyrna and 1 is in Vinings, so I believe that is the part of Cobb you're acquainted with. Dekalb has 16, so I want them to have credit where it is due. Fulton has 43, largely centered on Atlanta
As far as infrastructure goes, Gwinnett has been really aggressive at infrastructure with many strong SPLOST packages throughout the years.
It has a a well developed arterial road system parts of the Atlanta region don't have. It's water and sewage treatment facilities are the most up to date in the region. The school facilities are excellent and a winner of the Broad Prize. The park system has won national awards. It has more developed acres and passive acreage of county-owned park land than Cobb and Dekalb Counties. (I can't look up stats for Fulton, because of the large amount of city controlled park land... makes it a bit hard to look up)
The Aquatics centers are second to none.
West Gwinnett has Peachtree Pkwy, Peachtree Industrial, Buford Highway, and Satellite Blvd on top of I-85 with the best collector distributor system around in the central part of the county. They've built about half of Sugarloaf pkwy, including the first freeway portion to GA316. We have a mini-freeway, Ronald Reagan, to link our eastern suburbs with our main development corridors.
As for employment. Gwinnett is the county with the second highest percentage of jobs in the top 5 job types commonly use in labor research. The first being Fulton County, obviously. We have the same number of jobs as Cobb, a few more than Dekalb, and of course less than Fulton. Both Cobb and Gwinnett have 3 Fortune 500 companies, admittedly one of them is up in the air...
So in terms of infrastructure I'm bewildered completely. In terms of development and density, Gwinnett and Cobb are so much alike to be honest. One thing is for sure. We definitely aren't 20 years behind Dekalb and Cobb anymore.
Lastly, I want to pick on just one county and on only one of the topics you mentioned, Dekalb and infrastructure. Gwinnett is definitely not behind there.
Dekalb's county built infrastructure is a mess. The arterial road system is heavily dependent on all of the freeways that criss-cross the county and a few state highway routes. They never fully built out many of the older rural roads throughout the country. The water and sewer system is aging and will eventually need updating. They're schools teach fewer students and are a mess at the macro level (there are some standouts at the neighborhood level).
They have access to MARTA, Part of the Perimeter area, a strong Perimeter CID, many great neighborhoods, and picturesque driving routes. That is all great, but they sorely need an extra splost and lost penny for their road network, parks, and utilities for about 3 decades or so.
Born 2 Roll: What happens when Gwinnett is out of land about 10-20 years from now like Cobb, Dekalb, and Fulton already are and their residents start demanding things like walkability, transit, better roads, trails, etc? Things that have already been solved at these three counties? At the same time, Cobb Pkwy springing up high-rise and mid-rise along Cobb Pkwy along the new BRT line... Dekalb county keeps going vertical near the Perimeter and near midtown. Gwinnett will slow down relatively and be solving the same problems that the other three counties have long since solved. Each new midrise or highrise condo that Cobb, Fulton or Dekalb add will be another few thousand people...
Going vertical scales much better. At that point, Gwinnett will lag behind. And necessity is the mother of invention. I just don't see Gwinnett building up until it's already built out.
Gwinnett won't necessarily lag behind counties like Cobb, Fulton and DeKalb in the implementation of high-density areas as there are already plans to redevelop the declining Jimmy Carter Boulevard and Pleasant Hill Road/Gwinnett Place Mall areas with high-density and high-rise development.
And like Cobb County has plans to redevelop the US 41 Cobb County corridor with high-density development along a high-capacity transit line, Gwinnett County also has plans to redevelop the I-85 corridor with high-density development at and around stations along a proposed light rail transit line. http://www.dot.ga.gov/aboutGeorgiado...85Corridor.pdf
You also seem to underestimate the aggressiveness of Gwinnett County's land speculation and real estate development community, a community which has historically been known as one of the most aggressive in metro Atlanta and in the Southeastern U.S. through about the last 4 decades.
One of the major reasons why Gwinnett County has experienced so much explosive population growth over the last 4 decades (growing from about 72,000 residents in 1970 to about 859,000 residents today for an unheard of growth rate of almost 1100% since 1970) is because of Gwinnett County's very-aggressive real estate development community which has traditionally tended to overbuild Gwinnett's residential and commercial real estate markets during boom periods.
The overbuilding of Gwinnett's real estate market during boom periods has often resulted in an over-inventory of residential and commercial real estate during slower periods making it very-easy for minorities and immigrants to move into the county (in which they were heavily-attracted to because of the very-high quality of the schools) in very-high numbers, as they (large numbers of minorities and immigrants) continue to do even during this continued period of slow economic improvement.
The increasingly firm foothold of the international and minority communities in the county is the major reason why Gwinnett appears to continue to outpace every other county in Georgia in population growth during the current slower economic period.
With Gwinnett's unique niche as one of the nation's most ultra-diverse suburban counties that is home to exploding populations of Latinos and Asians, it will likely be difficult for other large metro Atlanta counties like Cobb and DeKalb to catch up to and surpass Gwinnett in population.
Last edited by Born 2 Roll; 03-27-2014 at 11:04 PM..
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