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I left Coweta County to attend college but now I'm back after 7 years of undergrad and grad school. I'm only here temporarily though, as I have a job offer in Virginia.
I left in 2008 as the recession was beginning to intensify. The fast growth that Coweta had experience dried up overnight it seemed, and during visits home the sight of empty retail, abandoned subdivisions and overgrown plots of land became familiar. Fortunately in 2015, things seem to be looking up. Growth and development is accelerating, though not at the rate of 10 or 15 years ago.
As I prepare to leave Coweta County permanently, I'd like you all to humor me and give me your predictions about the future of Coweta and the SW Metro area. Here are some of my observations that could be a factor:
Distance- Coweta just feels WAYYY out there even though some areas of the county are no further from the center of Atlanta than Alpharetta, Duluth/Suwanee, and Kennesaw. And the commute is definitely faster with less traffic. Still, I think most people see it as a far removed bedroom community.
Healthcare industry- the Cancer Treatment Centers of America have built their metro Atlanta campus in Newnan and seem to be investing heavily in Coweta. Future healthcare cluster?
Demographics: Coweta is still over 70% white and the racial makeup seems to be stable. But it borders areas of the metro that are becoming heavily African American like South Fulton and North Fayette. What can Coweta expect to see in terms of demographic changes?
Airport: Coweta has always sold itself on its proximity to Hartsfield Jackson. If the airport can develop a large office market through projects like Aerotropolis it could affect growth, but I'm not so sure.
Urban renaissance: It seems like most of the exurbs have seen slower population growth while intown areas are growing at a faster pace.
So what say you? At the end of the day I'll be proud to be from Coweta County no matter what happens!
I think Coweta County is a pretty nice, almost secret for suburban living in Atlanta. An excellent choice for young families as it is actually affordable and safe at the same time, you don't have to choose one or the other. Demographically, I see Coweta skewing younger and more white. Commuter rail could happen one day, which would be a great thing, even though the traffic isn't that bad.
Fayette County is losing out to Coweta as far as replenishing their population with younger people. Coweta will be one of the better places to live on the southside for a long time.
In 2004 I moved from NY to Peachtree City for a job. 4 years later I built my first home and chose Newnan. PTC was too pricey and Newnan had more of what I wanted (shopping and walkable downtown along with the safety and recreation). I think going forward Nenwnan and Coweta will continue to attract those types of younger buyers that will create a nice pipeline of steady growth as families stay and grow into larger homes.
Along with that, Newnan has built up a premier medical community in the past 5 years with the new Piedmont hospital, Cancer Treatment Center of America, Health South rehabilitation hospital, and possibley the behavioral hospital. All of these have soured additional medical office development and the accompanying movement of professionals to the area.
I believe the University of West Georgia move to downtown will have a dramatic impact on that area in the next few years. We'll probably see more eateries and housing downtown - including both multi family and infill single family.
In addition, I think the 2 new interchanges planned for both north and south of Bullsboro rd/34 will dramatically increase the scale of the area by increasing industrial development in the north and services/commercial in the south at poplar rd. Eventually I hope Coweta along I85 gets some solid commercial office devlopment. I think eventually it will come south to us but we're probably 5-10 years away from that. Also - we'll probably have to hope for that Columbus to Atlanta train line to ever get a commuter stop here. If that happens, Nenwnan could really take off - but that's 20 years out or more.
I prefer growth than sitting stagnant but I hope it's managed right. There are many here that like Coweta for its more laid back feel. I hope the majority of the growth and devlopment stays within Newnan and leaves most of the rest of the county as it has been - with low density and rural devlopment. Keep the high density and large tracts within a larger footprint of the city of Newnan. I believe the city will continue to expand its limits going forward.
Thanks for the responses guys! Lots of good insight. As a single, 25 year old guy, I think I'd be more at home in an urban area but I definitely have a lot of love for Coweta. It was a great place to grow up due to its family friendly nature, good schools and low crime. And it was fun to watch it grow through the years.
I didn't know about the 2 new interchanges. I just found some info about the Poplar Road interchange but couldn't find anything about an interchange north of Bullsboro. But I agree that those could be a big catalyst for growth. I drove around Senoia a few days ago and was pleasantly surprised to see changes in its downtown and the residential and commercial development going on in that area. Seems like they're increasing the housing stock while still trying to maintain that wonderful, pastoral feel of the area.
I can definitely see Newnan continuing to grow and densify, creating its own unique cluster of office, retail, industrial and higher education while most of the county remains fairly rural and low density, at least in the western part. I see Newnan becoming a significant satellite city, tied to Atlanta but with its own distinct sphere of influence.
I also think that the lack of responses shows that many in the region don't see Newnan/Coweta as a major player, but I think that will change in the future. It's kind of a sleeping giant.
I am not originally from Georgia and not familiar with Coweta County so I cannot give any insightful information on your well thought out questions. The only person I even know from there is a lady I used to work with whose dad owned a park and ride lot at the airport.
What I can say is this though - go ahead and see how you like the position in Virginia. Heck, at least you have a position. There are few things more delightful than spreading your wings. You said "permanent" move, but who knows? Either way, Coweta County (for better or worse) will still be here if you decide to come home. That's one thing we know, right?
Demographics: Coweta is still over 70% white and the racial makeup seems to be stable. But it borders areas of the metro that are becoming heavily African American like South Fulton and North Fayette. What can Coweta expect to see in terms of demographic changes?
You do know that Fayette County is "still" over 70% white as well? According to the 2013 Census estimate, the white (alone) population was 71.7% and the black/African-American (alone) population was 21.4%. The 2013 estimates for Coweta were 77.8% and 18%, respectively. The Hispanic / Latino population is about the same in both counties, but the Asian and mixed-race population of Fayette is more than twice that of Coweta. So in other words, Fayette is more diverse. And that's a good thing.
As I have explained on this site before, there is an unfortunate perception that Fayette County -- and Fayetteville in particular -- is suffering from "white flight" and "becoming heavily African-American" (as you put it). This is largely due to the fact that Fayetteville is now the shopping mecca for all of South Metro Atlanta. The Fayette Pavilion (largest retail center in the entire state with almost 2 million square feet of space and the ONLY Target and Walmart on the same site!) draws two-thirds of its customers, and many of its employees, from South Fulton, Clayton, and Griffin.
While it's true that the black population doubled between 2000-2010, the white population didn't go anywhere. And the African-American families who've moved to Fayette County are, on average, wealthier and better educated than than their white neighbors! In fact, the census tract that covers North Fayette is the 2nd-wealthiest majority-minority area of the entire country.
I never said there was white flight in Fayette County. I travel around the county quite a bit and don't see any signs of that. It doesn't change the fact that most of the growth in north Fayette, whether it's Tyrone or areas north of Fayetteville, is being fueled by an increase in the AA population. That doesn't necessarily mean that white people in those areas are moving out. Still, the demographic change has been dramatic. The black share of the population in Fayette doubled between 2000 and 2010 while the black percentage in Coweta dropped slightly in the same time span. That data signals a demographic change that unfortunately might alarm some people.
You're right though. Many people have that perception about Fayette. I suppose it's because white flight has happened in neighboring areas like Clayton and South Fulton and some people are waiting with baited breath for the same thing to happen there. I think Fayette will remain a desirable place to live regardless of its future demographics. I just don't see Fayette loosening its zoning laws to allow for a lot more low income housing. If anything I think the county will become more stringent in its housing density rules and such. I do, however, think that Fayette will see a greater level of demographic and socioeconomic diversity in the future.
To be clear, are you saying that there is a false perception of Fayetteville becoming heavily AA due to the abundance of black shoppers at the Pavillion?
I never said there was white flight in Fayette County. I travel around the county quite a bit and don't see any signs of that. It doesn't change the fact that most of the growth in north Fayette, whether it's Tyrone or areas north of Fayetteville, is being fueled by an increase in the AA population. That doesn't necessarily mean that white people in those areas are moving out. Still, the demographic change has been dramatic. The black share of the population in Fayette doubled between 2000 and 2010 while the black percentage in Coweta dropped slightly in the same time span. That data signals a demographic change that unfortunately might alarm some people.
You're right though. Many people have that perception about Fayette. I suppose it's because white flight has happened in neighboring areas like Clayton and South Fulton and some people are waiting with baited breath for the same thing to happen there. I think Fayette will remain a desirable place to live regardless of its future demographics. I just don't see Fayette loosening its zoning laws to allow for a lot more low income housing. If anything I think the county will become more stringent in its housing density rules and such. I do, however, think that Fayette will see a greater level of demographic and socioeconomic diversity in the future.
To be clear, are you saying that there is a false perception of Fayetteville becoming heavily AA due to the abundance of black shoppers at the Pavillion?
Fayette Pavilion has nearly 2 million sf of retail space in a county with barely 110,000 people. And 36,000 of them live in Peachtree City. As I'm sure you know, they don't shop in Fayetteville. In 2007, Fayetteville had $45,000 in retail sales PER CAPITA -- 3 times more than Peachtree City and 4.5 times more than Coweta County. It's no doubt grown bigger since then.
Now ask yourself: Where are all those shoppers coming form? And where are all those WORKERS coming from? Clayton and South Fulton. A few years ago, the City of Fayetteville surveyed all the cars in the Pavilion parking lots and determined that more than 70 percent of them were from outside Fayette County -- and most of those were Clayton and Fulton.
Now let's talk about the schools: The Sandy Creek attendance zone draws from north Fayette and thus it has always been the most diverse student body in the county. Whitewater High opened in 2004 to relieve overcrowding at Fayette County High. At the time, FCHS had nearly 2,300 students and was more than 70 percent white. Black students numbered around 500. Unfortunately, the BOE made the boneheaded decision to split the FCHS attendance zone in half north-south -- basically along Hwy 54 through the middle of town. That had the unintended affect of pulling more than 1,000 white students out of FCHS and sending them to WHS. Three years later, Fayette County High became majority-minority NOT because of some huge increase in minority students, but a massive decrease in WHITE students. Fayette County High today has only 100 more African-American students than it did 10 years ago and is still ranked higher than any high school in Coweta. Yet everybody thinks it's "gone ghetto." Perception is not always reality.
Now ask yourself: Where are all those shoppers coming form? And where are all those WORKERS coming from? Clayton and South Fulton. A few years ago, the City of Fayetteville surveyed all the cars in the Pavilion parking lots and determined that more than 70 percent of them were from outside Fayette County -- and most of those were Clayton and Fulton.
Hey, how lucky of Fayetteville!
Have they ever done a survey of all the origination of the property and violent crime in FayCo? I'm guessing that 70% may be a little low.
The Pavilion was Fayetteville's biggest irreversible mistake. Many will think I am talking about race here (I love northern FayCo and it's citizens!), but that isn't a problem. Attracting some of the metro's lowest economic rungs to my wonderful home county was a terrible idea for Fayette County. It should have been put on 54, which would not only would have reduced the current crime levels (which aren't terrible but shouldn't be where they are) but rendered the abortion of a shopping center in West PTC unnecessary.
There was some white flight in Fayette County at one point, but I think that leveled off. Sayonara suckers! Thankfully the county land use plan adds built in value to property and prevents what happened in so many surrounding areas from happening there.
Have they ever done a survey of all the origination of the property and violent crime in FayCo? I'm guessing that 70% may be a little low.
The Pavilion was Fayetteville's biggest irreversible mistake. Many will think I am talking about race here (I love northern FayCo and it's citizens!), but that isn't a problem. Attracting some of the metro's lowest economic rungs to my wonderful home county was a terrible idea for Fayette County. It should have been put on 54, which would not only would have reduced the current crime levels (which aren't terrible but shouldn't be where they are) but rendered the abortion of a shopping center in West PTC unnecessary.
There was some white flight in Fayette County at one point, but I think that leveled off. Sayonara suckers! Thankfully the county land use plan adds built in value to property and prevents what happened in so many surrounding areas from happening there.
And now I derailed the thread. Sorry OP.
No you didn't derail it! This is a very interesting discussion. Fayette County is a very interesting place and I enjoy talking about its future as much as Coweta's. Hearing Newsboy makes me think that he, and many others from Fayette, are very worried about the county's reputation in the light of demographic changes currently going on. I love seeing greater diversity in Fayette! And Newsboy is right when he says that many of the minority residents moving in are still high income and well educated. It will be interesting to see how it fares in the future
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There are few things more delightful than spreading your wings. You said "permanent" move, but who knows? Either way, Coweta County (for better or worse) will still be here if you decide to come home. That's one thing we know, right?
