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Old 09-15-2016, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,582 posts, read 10,793,420 times
Reputation: 6572

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Quote:
Originally Posted by PTC Dad View Post
This number will drop substantially once they finish the verification process. I bet less than 500 are here illegally. As for the cost, the state pays about 1/2 the cost of public education.

If 4,500 kids were truly in Fayette illegally, then Fayette taxpayers are spending over $22 million a year educating out of county kids.

I think it's smart to verify residency if it save tax $$, but I do not like the racial undertones.
By my metrics though, it would have to be much,much lower.

A census survey estimates from sending a long survey to every area about their living conditions. They actually report back, age, student-type, and school type (public or private).

So they only way I can see Fayette only having 19,500 students would be if Fayette has declined in student population in the past 5 years.

It is just a survey, but the estimations should be pretty solid. It was estimate with 19,812 students from a 2009-2013 survey period.


2015 population estimates have Fayette at 110,714.

In 2010 the population was 106,566.

That is an increase of 4,147.

K-12 students make up about 18.7% of the county and we would expect the recent growth to be more kid heavy with middle-age families and not as many empty nesters, but still we can assume 18.7% of those 4,147 would be new kids going into the school system.

So that is 771 new kids (estimated) between 2010 and 2015. Some would go private and some would be home schooled. And the dates don't line up perfectly the population estimates solidly for a 5 year change from 2010 to 2015. The survey has responses from 2009 through 2013, so those estimates should be higher than the 2010 population estimates with more responses after 2010, but it shouldn't be as high the 2015 estimates.

Short story is if actual enrollment is 20,058 and the census estimated (via survey) there were 19,812 public K-12 students in the 2009-13 period, an increase of 246 students is totally plausible and expected by 2016.

I would have expected more, but the numbers of out of county students are going to be in a range of small margin of errors, not 500 kids.


They are looking for needles in a haystack, not some huge movement to sneak into Fayette schools.
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Old 09-15-2016, 04:34 PM
 
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The number of students in Fayette county schools peaked 10 years ago at around 22,000 students & has been declining every year since. They have actually closed 2 elementary schools & sold another brand new school to Pinewood. A lot of the decline was due to the economy, as well as many people retiring in place. Fayette is one of the oldest counties in the state. Also about 1,000-1,500 kids in Fayette go to private schools so those kids would be included in the census data.

This issue of illegal kids attending Fayette County schools started bubbling up a few years back when Clayton almost lost accreditation. As that happened, people started seeing a lot more Clayton tags at Fayette schools which were probably new people moving in, but I'm sure there were a few isolated cases of people using a grandparent or relative's address. There are also several hundred kids attending Fayette County schools from surrounding counties because their parents work for the school system.
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Old 09-15-2016, 04:57 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,582 posts, read 10,793,420 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PTC Dad View Post
The number of students in Fayette county schools peaked 10 years ago at around 22,000 students & has been declining every year since. They have actually closed 2 elementary schools & sold another brand new school to Pinewood. A lot of the decline was due to the economy, as well as many people retiring in place. Fayette is one of the oldest counties in the state. Also about 1,000-1,500 kids in Fayette go to private schools so those kids would be included in the census data.

This issue of illegal kids attending Fayette County schools started bubbling up a few years back when Clayton almost lost accreditation. As that happened, people started seeing a lot more Clayton tags at Fayette schools which were probably new people moving in, but I'm sure there were a few isolated cases of people using a grandparent or relative's address. There are also several hundred kids attending Fayette County schools from surrounding counties because their parents work for the school system.
Right because growth was stunted to nearly nothing around 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. However since then trends have been slowly reversing back towards pre-recession ways, which means more kids... not less. Pre-recession they had a growing number of kids and they anticipated additional growth, which is why they had to close a couple schools.

The idea that there is an additional 246 kids in the county since that period that families couldn't afford Fayette isn't that far-fetched, especially given the newer neighborhoods being built further north of Peacthree City

We aren't talking about very much here, especially with new homes back in development again.


Also my data, as already mentioned, differentiates school type. It was only a total of kids reporting back going to Public schools... not private.

I can give you those numbers separately.


I'm not saying there aren't isolated cases. I'm just saying the numbers mostly are in-line given the population census and survey estimates.
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Old 09-15-2016, 10:05 PM
 
Location: Savannah GA
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If memory serves, enrollment this fall (which is not official mind you until the designated October "school census date" that the state designates for every district) was unchanged from last year, and maybe even a few students more. This is a big change from the past 6-7 years as there has been a steady decline as older families "aged out" and were not being replaced by new families with younger kids. Fayette is the only system in Metro Atlanta (and maybe the whole state) where the high schools have more kids than the elementary kids, because the price of homes makes it difficult for young "first time" homebuyers to live there. Traditionally it's been a place where families moved after their kids were already aging toward middle school.

Also, as PTC Dad mentioned, there is a large and fast growing seniors / retirement demo in Fayette. I believe the avarage age of Fayette is highest in Metro Atlanta as well.

And there are also a TON of home-school families in Fayette.

At any rate, whenever the BOE has gone after "illegals" in the past, there's never been more than a few dozen uncovered and kicked out. The most was during the Clayton County accreditation crisis.

I'm still curious if anybody knows of similar situations around Metro Atlanta? Do DeKalb families sneak their kids into Gwinnett, for example? Or Paulding into Cobb? Or Rockdale into Henry?

Last edited by Newsboy; 09-15-2016 at 11:05 PM..
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Old 09-16-2016, 01:01 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
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Short answer is yes.

The way it usually happens is when someone has a relative that does live in the district and they register the child as living at that address, but in reality the parent lives out of district and they drive to the school or their relatives house to pick up the child each day.

The other situation, which is probably more common, is the family moves out of the district... very common with people from key apartment complexes in the area. They stay in the apartment just long enough to enroll for the next year before moving out to a cheaper place and they might try to register the following year. The latter is caught every year at registration, the prior is caught whenever there is a behavioral problem and the phone number goes unresponsive and/or they don't reply to written communications regarding the situation sent to the address. Cell phones are changing this a bit.

The issue with the Parkview district is it is right next door to Dekalb close to Memorial Drive where there are a ton of fairly cheap apartments. The apartment complexes in the Parkview district are fewer, but they charge more. It actually isn't that more expensive, but it is still about $200-250 more than some of the cheaper 3 bedroom apartments you can find along Memorial Drive.

...And there are similar spotty issues that happen between districts within the county.



For reasons that are private and don't want to get into in a public forum, my sister (now 41) is unable to completely support herself and probably won't be going into the future. She still lives with my parents and she has a daughter, now 17. She has mostly been raised by my other sister who moved back and with the occasional from myself.

The caveat is she never changed their last name after a divorce when my niece was still 1 years old, so that name is different from my parents. So every year we have to fill out extra documentation and provide extra materials that show my sister and niece is a resident at the house. The house, tax records, and utility bills are all in my parents name. So both my sister has to claim she lives there and my sister has to provide a variety of evidence to shoe shes established at that address. I forget exactly what it is, but its a process they have to go through every year, but they can't provide the one or two basic documents most can so they jump through a few hoops.
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Old 09-21-2016, 05:04 PM
 
Location: Savannah GA
13,709 posts, read 21,962,158 times
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The number has been reduced to 2,653 (and probably less than that since this story was written). According to a distinct assistant superintendent, only "1 or 2" students have been withdrawn since the verification process began.

Still 2,653 students unverified as residents | TheCitizen.com
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Old 12-16-2016, 10:06 PM
 
Location: Savannah GA
13,709 posts, read 21,962,158 times
Reputation: 10228
REMEMBER THIS STORY FROM A FEW MONTHS BACK? Of the original 4,500-plus "unverified" students, the number was whittled down to about 100 -- which the Fayette County BOE voted this week to EXPEL!

Of course, in the opinion of most of the (usual) rabid (anonymous) posters to The Citizen website, this miscarriage of justice qualifies as one of the most HEINOUS CRIMES in all history, and should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law!

BoE votes 3-1-1 to kick out 100 unverified kids | TheCitizen.com
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Old 12-17-2016, 11:15 AM
 
32,035 posts, read 36,857,518 times
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Thanks for the update, Newsboy.
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Old 12-17-2016, 03:25 PM
 
Location: Georgia
4,209 posts, read 4,757,037 times
Reputation: 3626
Is anyone protesting this?
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Old 12-17-2016, 03:55 PM
 
Location: Savannah GA
13,709 posts, read 21,962,158 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demonta4 View Post
Is anyone protesting this?
What can they protest? If the kids were enrolled illegal (or based on falsified proof of residency) that's a crime in the state of Georgia. The school board could press charges and have the parents arrested if they wanted
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