"November Surprise" - Clinton wins Cobb by 6,800 votes in loss of Georgia (Atlanta: crimes, home)

[bogans]

Originally Posted by TheTravelinMan

Thats all very nice for high school civics class however here in the real world any vote that doesn't go into Clintons column is in effect a vote for Trump

You seem to indicate that third party spoilers only hurt Democrats. Ross Perot would indicate otherwise. Johnson could have been stealing votes away from Trump too.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by bogans

You seem to indicate that third party spoilers only hurt Democrats. Ross Perot would indicate otherwise. Johnson could have been stealing votes away from Trump too.

Thank you. A vote is a vote, no matter who gets it. Last I checked, I know some Republicans who turned Libertarian this time around.

[BR Valentine]

Originally Posted by bogans

Maybe I'm missing something:

Obama 2012
Penn - 2,990,274
Wisconsin - 1,620,985
Michigan - 2,564,569
New Hampshire - 369,561
Ohio - 2,827,710
Arizona - 1,025,232
Iowa - 822,544

Trump - 2016
Penn - 2,912,941
Wisconsin - 1,409,467
Michigan - 2,279,210
New Hampshire - 245,464
Ohio - 2,771,984
Arizona - 972,900
Iowa - 798,923

How can you say Trump would have won the electoral college over Obama in 2012? The only state Trump could have taken from Obama in 2012 was Florida. I checked every state Obama won in 2012 against Trump's totals. These are the swing states and midwest states above. Obama wins them all. Losing Florida's 29 he actually wins Arizona's 11. Obama 2012 beats Trump 2016 314 - 224 in electoral votes. He also gets 6M more total votes. Go back to 2008 and he had even more votes. Arjay is right. If Democrats mobilize their base like they did under Obama, they win easily.

You are correct. I went back and looked at the article and the author has issued a "'Mea culpa" for making an error while compiling the data. Of course, I didn't expect I'd need to double check the author's work.

[TheTravelinMan]

Originally Posted by bogans

You seem to indicate that third party spoilers only hurt Democrats. Ross Perot would indicate otherwise. Johnson could have been stealing votes away from Trump too.

My point is that if he did not want Trump to be president then his only real option would have been to vote Clinton. Since he chose not to do that then I assume he was fine with the outcome.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by TheTravelinMan

My point is that if he did not want Trump to be president then his only real option would have been to vote Clinton. Since he chose not to do that then I assume he was fine with the outcome.

Well, he won despite all of the votes for Clinton, so you could say the same for those Clinton voters.

[TheTravelinMan]

Originally Posted by green_mariner

Well, he won despite all of the votes for Clinton, so you could say the same for those Clinton voters.

If you had added your vote to the Clinton total then perhaps he might not have won.

[fourthwarden]

Originally Posted by TheTravelinMan

If you had added your vote to the Clinton total then perhaps he might not have won.

Can you show that, definitively, though? Can you prove that, had each state's 3rd-party voters all gone to Clinton (a HUGE assumption), she would have won the election?

Until you prove that, you're just pointing fingers and making excuses.

[TheTravelinMan]

Originally Posted by fourthwarden

Can you show that, definitively, though? Can you prove that, had each state's 3rd-party voters all gone to Clinton (a HUGE assumption), she would have won the election?

Until you prove that, you're just pointing fingers and making excuses.

I said 'perhaps'. My point is that any vote not for Clinton is de-facto a vote for Trump - that's just reality.

[bogans]

Originally Posted by TheTravelinMan

I said 'perhaps'. My point is that any vote not for Clinton is de-facto a vote for Trump - that's just reality.

So by the same reasoning, any vote not for Trump is a vote for Clinton?

So someone voting for Johnson has technically voted for and against both Trump and Clinton?

[TheTravelinMan]

Originally Posted by bogans

So by the same reasoning, any vote not for Trump is a vote for Clinton?

So someone voting for Johnson has technically voted for and against both Trump and Clinton?

Since Johnson had no shot in any universe of winning then someone who voted for Johnson was obviously comfortable with either Trump or Clinton winning.