Frontrunner GA Lt. Gov. Cagle raises nearly $7 million in gubernatorial bid (2015, subsidized)

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by atltechdude

Cagle may indeed be a Deal 2.0 in that he may campaign in a rather ultra conservative manner (Deal certainly did with his disgusting attacks on gays etc), but then govern in a more pragmatic and business friendly way as Deal pivoted to.

Cagle may have to campaign in a somewhat more conservative manner in the GOP primary to get to the right of such deeply-conservative figures as Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (who is running a Trump-inspired campaign that is focused almost solely on rural voters) and Georgia state Senator Michael Williams of Cumming.

(...Williams, who has stated his intent to run a Trump-style insurgent campaign focused on a coalition of deeply-conservative outer-suburban, exurban and rural voters, seems to be the deeply-conservative candidate that the Republican establishment is most afraid of because of his perceived unpredictability and his stated threat to run as an outsider.)

But Cagle does not really have the history of campaigning (and/or governing) as an ultraconservative.

Cagle actually beat a very deeply-conservative faction of the political spectrum when he beat national Christian conservative darling Ralph Reed by 12 points in the GOP primary on his way to winning his first Lt. governor's race back in 2006.

Reed, who is a leading figure in the national conservative evangelical religious movement, was expected to win the 2006 GOP primary in route to winning the 2006 Lt. governor's race and launching his national political career. But Reed got caught in the middle of the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal in late 2005 and early 2006 and ended up losing to Cagle in the 2006 GOP primary in the Lt. governor's race.

The loss was costly for both Reed and the national Christian conservative movement because it ended up derailing both of their rising national political ambitions.

Because Cagle beat a darling of the national Christian conservative movement in Ralph Reed on his way to winning the 2006 Lt. governor's race and likewise advancing his own long-term political ambitions, many religious conservatives have never really forgotten that loss for Reed and never have really felt that Cagle was truly deeply-conservative. Many religious conservatives remain somewhat unhappy with Cagle that he did not exit the 2006 Lt. governor's race early and clear the way for the deeply-conservative Ralph Reed to win the race and advance the national Christian conservative movement by running unopposed.

Because he beat Reed in 2006, Cagle has sometimes been viewed with a bit of suspicion by many of Georgia's hard-right social and religious conservatives as evidenced by the legislative mutiny by Tea Party-aligned senators during the 2011 and 2012 sessions of the Georgia General Assembly where deeply conservative senators pulled a legislative coup on Cagle by taking away much of his power as President of the Georgia state Senate after he reportedly pressured them into voting for a tax increase to fund a series of statewide trauma centers.

And even if Cagle does run a little harder to the right in the GOP primary, he likely would attempt to pivot back towards the center or even center-left after the primary because of a potentially tough match-up against one of the two Democratic female gubernatorial candidates (Stacey Abrams or Stacey Evans) in the general election in a year that appears like it could be really challenging for Republicans.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Atlwarrior

This will be one of the most interesting Governor races on the National level. I expect millions to come to both of the final candidates in the end.

I agree with that assessment.

Progressive left-of-center Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams seems to be generating much financial interest from national progressive groups because of her stated electoral strategy of turning out lots of Democratic base voters in the general election.

National progressive groups think that Georgia is moving to the left demographically and are looking to invest heavily in moving Georgia to the left politically as a means of taking the reliably red state out of the electoral column for Republicans and putting it the electoral column as a reliably blue state for Democrats in presidential elections.

Center-left Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Georgia state Senator Stacey Evans also could present a strong challenge in a general election scenario because her stated intent to appeal to moderate suburban, exurban and rural voters.

Both of the Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidates potentially could be strong challengers to Republican Georgia Lt. Governor Casey Cagle because of the major problems that the GOP is potentially expected to have with college-educated moderate female suburban voters during the 2018 cycle.

Though, even with the challenges that the national GOP is expected to have with college-educated moderate female suburban voters and with Donald Trump's increasing baggage, a candidate like Casey Cagle probably is still likely to win the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race because of the overwhelming backing that he will have from the state's domineering business community.

With how so intimately close Cagle is with them, Georgia's business community at this point is likely to do whatever it needs to pull Cagle (whom Georgia's Republican leadership and business leadership has been cultivating to become governor since he took office in 2007) over the finish line, even in national conditions that are beginning to look like they potentially could be increasingly tough for Republicans by the time that the November general election rolls around.

[tikigod311]

As always, thanks for the great analysis B2R

This is going to be a real interesting political year, locally and nationally. I'm actually excited for all the inevitable drama coming our way.

Here's hoping a more accurate representation of citizens is motivated to come out to vote.

[Forhall]

I will probably switch parties to vote in the Republican primary. Cagle is the only one who will not destroy the states economy, film industry, and future just to shove his own beliefs down everyone's throats.

I love that Atlanta is now such a force that the Republican primary must he moderate to win this deep South state. Won't be long until Atlanta has enough pull that even a democrat can win statewide.

[fieldm]

Originally Posted by Forhall

I will probably switch parties to vote in the Republican primary. Cagle is the only one who will not destroy the states economy, film industry, and future just to shove his own beliefs down everyone's throats.

I love that Atlanta is now such a force that the Republican primary must he moderate to win this deep South state. Won't be long until Atlanta has enough pull that even a democrat can win statewide.

Same here

[AnsleyPark]

Originally Posted by Forhall

I will probably switch parties to vote in the Republican primary. Cagle is the only one who will not destroy the states economy, film industry, and future just to shove his own beliefs down everyone's throats.

Didn't Mr. Cagle take the pledge to push forward on the Religious Liberty bill????

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

Didn't Mr. Cagle take the pledge to push forward on the Religious Liberty bill????

They all did, but he's the most likely to back down later. Have to appease the psychos during the primary before governing like an adult once you win.

[tikigod311]

How much power do these religious liberty folks have? It seems like they dictate the primaries, but how does that translate to the general election?

It would be nice to have a more representative turnout for primary elections

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by Forhall

I will probably switch parties to vote in the Republican primary. Cagle is the only one who will not destroy the states economy, film industry, and future just to shove his own beliefs down everyone's throats.

I love that Atlanta is now such a force that the Republican primary must he moderate to win this deep South state. Won't be long until Atlanta has enough pull that even a democrat can win statewide.

And that democrat will destroy the state's economy, film industry and future. GA does NOT want to become a state like NY or CA.

[primaltech]

Originally Posted by Forhall

I will probably switch parties to vote in the Republican primary. Cagle is the only one who will not destroy the states economy, film industry, and future just to shove his own beliefs down everyone's throats.

I love that Atlanta is now such a force that the Republican primary must he moderate to win this deep South state. Won't be long until Atlanta has enough pull that even a democrat can win statewide.

Yeah, same exact thinking here.

As admirably as Stacey Abrams is doing in her campaign, I hate to say this- but black people just don't vote enough. She may not even win the Dem primary, and anyway I'd put either Stacey's chances in the general election at slim to none. Abrams might even do worse in the general, because of her race. Stupid but true.