Long-term growth patterns... (Atlanta, Moreland: mortgages, house, neighborhood)

[TheseGoTo11]

Nashville's growing at a slower rate than Atlanta in spite of being less than half its size, and Huntsville barely grew faster than Atlanta 2.4% vs. 2.2% for metro Atlanta, and its metro is still less than 1/10th Atlanta's size.

Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are growing faster than Atlanta percentage-wise, and are competing well for northern transplants. They're also eastern time zone unlike Alabama and mid-Tenn, and closer to the NE than Atlanta. I can get from DC to Chapel Hill in 4-4.5 hours driving. Not surprising they call Cary, NC concentrated area of relocated yankees.

Neither will come close to Atlanta in our lifetimes, but last year the two metros combined growth of 110k nearly surpassed Atlanta's of 115k.

[PT 3000]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

I said slight increases and slight decrease!

Am I the only one who gets the impression that Bulldawg is disgruntled at Atlanta for being a prosperous city where people move to on their own and for some reason he thinks that we are stealing from other areas population wise as if we put a gun to anybody's head and said "move to Atlanta or else".

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by PT 3000

Am I the only one who gets the impression that Bulldawg is disgruntled at Atlanta for being a prosperous city where people move to on their own and for some reason he thinks that we are stealing from other areas population wise as if we put a gun to anybody's head and said "move to Atlanta or else".

"Impression"?

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by PT 3000

Am I the only one who gets the impression that Bulldawg is disgruntled at Atlanta for being a prosperous city where people move to on their own and for some reason he thinks that we are stealing from other areas population wise as if we put a gun to anybody's head and said "move to Atlanta or else".

Bingo. Like a piece of lint on your shoulder, just blow it off.

[equinox63]

Two questions:

1. In this day and age, do many Atlantans still get 30-year-mortgages with the intention of staying and raising a family and later possibly babysitting grandkids in a single home. For example, do many young couples in Atlanta buy their dream home at, say, 30. Then work to make it their own and have it paid off by the time they're 60. Then have the kids and grandkids come over in their old age, etc and possibly pass it on to their children? (Considering they do not outgrow the home and such...) Is this still a desire that many Atlantans share, or is it a constant search for the next big (or smaller, or newer) thing?

2. What areas of Atlanta are conducive to such lifestyles? I know areas like Ansley Park, Decatur City, Collier Heights, West Buckhead, and even College Park and SW Atlanta have many homes that are paid for in which the original residents still maintain the property and the adult children come by with their kids, etc. I also know many people abandoned certain areas due to white flight, followed by black flight to the suburbs and declining safety and amenities in certain parts of the city. However, with gentrification and Atlanta's rapidly changing landscape, what areas are good for that 30+ year investment?

Considering all that you know about future plans such as the beltline and the midtown mile, plus the social and economic gentrification taking place all around the city, what areas are the best bets for long-term stability?What intown areas do you see declining in 2040?


For example, will the young couple who just moved to Grant Park or Kirkwood with their 2-year-old daughter live in the same house to see that daughter graduate from the community high school, visit the same Grant Park or Kirkwood home when on breaks from college, have to sit at the dinner table of that Grant Park or Kirkwood home with her parents and her fiancé, and ultimately have her own school-aged children spend the night in the room that she once slept in as a child?

On the other hand, is it more likely for that young couple to move when their daughter is middle school-aged to the suburbs or some other area and sell the house to the next young couple? Will these areas always be young and trendy or will they mature as the residents mature… Or will these areas be always known as areas for young families prior to moving on the bigger and better things?

Since I sort of feel white flight was a one-time phenomenon that came on the heals of a Jim Crow society, what do you think that areas like Grant Park and Kirkwood, for example, will be like 30+ years from now. I'm guessing Druid Hills, Candler Park, Lake Claire, VA Highlands, Ansley Park, and Buckhead are here to stay as permanent mainstays in terms Atlanta desirability, but where do you see the West End, the Westside, Dunwoody, Doraville, Brookhaven, and even the Briarcliff area 30+ years from now. On the decline? Even better? Maintaining as they are now? Especially, what about the currently gentrifying areas of Atlanta? What are the chances of cultural trends (or other factors) having them falling back into disrepair by 2040. After all, 30 years is a long time...

I know many will say, "That's too far away. No one could predict that"… but based on what you know and believe, take a guess…

[equinox63]

I know the above (^^^) is similar to the original post, but this time, I'm focusing more on intown areas (unless otherwise specified), and particular neighborhoods and communities...

thanks.

[DeaconJ]

The restoration of Grant Park began in the 70s (or maybe 60s?), so it's already been a popular in-town neighborhood for many years. I don't see it declining in my lifetime. Kirkwood is more recent, but I think it will improve with time. You're right in saying that it's difficult to predict how a neighborhood will look in 30 years - I don't think anyone can know. You just have to go with your gut feeling about it.

[BringBackCobain]

It is a common rule in real estate that neighborhoods go through cycles from good to bad to good again, but after they become good again a general rule is that they do not decline again. Even Bukchead apparently had a seedy/stale/dated feel in the 70s, but it was nothing compared to the decline that Inman Park or Kirkwood saw. Places like Kirkwood, Grant Park, Doraville will only get better, because they are inside the perimeter and everything inside the perimeter is only going to get better.

I would worry more about the suburbs, but not places like Dunwoody. Think more in terms of places like Powder Springs or Fayette County, or basically non-northern suburbs that are far out with a lot of apartments.

[SouthernBoy205]

Basically, the bulk of metro Atlanta's future jobs are coming inside of the perimeter, right? If this is correct, then there will be a surge in population growth in this area, especially around Vinings and Smyrna. Places like Marietta and Norcross will probably see a surge too due to their proximity to downtown. On the other hand, places like Buford, Douglasville, Newnan, Dacula, Conyers, Dallas, and other far suburbs and exurbs will see a steady growth, a slight growth, or a decline in growth due to migration to the "closer-in" suburbs. If this happens, the density of that area will increase, and there will be more urban development on the scale as Atlantic Station that will include more skyscrapers, townhomes, and street-level jobs. The era of suburban growth for the metro is winding down. The recession has taught a lot of us lessons, especially how to live within our means. "Metro Atlantans" will move closer in resulting in less gas usage, more mass transit usage, less road traffic, and shorter commutes. Finally, Atlanta will get to be more urban mor than suburban.

[ericsonga]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

Basically, the bulk of metro Atlanta's future jobs are coming inside of the perimeter, right? If this is correct, then there will be a surge in population growth in this area, especially around Vinings and Smyrna. Places like Marietta and Norcross will probably see a surge too due to their proximity to downtown. On the other hand, places like Buford, Douglasville, Newnan, Dacula, Conyers, Dallas, and other far suburbs and exurbs will see a steady growth, a slight growth, or a decline in growth due to migration to the "closer-in" suburbs. If this happens, the density of that area will increase, and there will be more urban development on the scale as Atlantic Station that will include more skyscrapers, townhomes, and street-level jobs. The era of suburban growth for the metro is winding down. The recession has taught a lot of us lessons, especially how to live within our means. "Metro Atlantans" will move closer in resulting in less gas usage, more mass transit usage, less road traffic, and shorter commutes. Finally, Atlanta will get to be more urban mor than suburban.

I actually agree with you on the second point. Well, I hope to agree. I would like to think that we as Atlanta have learned our lesson, and will become much less dependent on sprawl. However, I'm not really convinced.

However, on the first part, I'm not so sure. Definitely the downtown/midtown/Buckhead core is the biggest source of employment in the metro. However, quite a few businesses have either relocated, or settled into areas outside of downtown. Places like Marietta, Perimeter, Sandy Springs, and Duluth/Sugarloaf, have a high number of Fortune 500 companies and offices in general. Even places like McDonough have become a large target in the warehouse/distribution arena.

I always think downtown will be the area with most of the large companies, however, in some respect, I think that Atlanta is lucky to have so many employment nodes. There is always a variety here.