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Considering all the possible projects in and around atlanta (such as the midtown mile, mega mart, town brookhaven and the beltline) that may take 20 years or so to complete, how do you thing the city's demographic will change by then?
For example, will areas now populated with young couples and families be areas with maturing families or will those families move elsewhere in 20 to 30 years. If so, what will become of those areas? Will residents in the northern suburbs remain static, have incentive to move closer in, or be compelled to move further out? Will there be new enclaves for the extremely affluent? What areas will become the city's eyesores or trouble spots? Where will all the single young professionals go when they settle down, and who will replace them... (I guess more single young professionals)?
Your predictions?
Lastly, in 20 to 30 years, where do YOU plan to be?
I think that people are going to start moving closer in because people will figure out that living too far away from their jobs (like living in Buford, Griffin, Douglasville) they will enounter bad traffic. So in order to relieve them from traffic, people will start to move closer to their jobs (mainly downtown). As a result, you will probably see a decrease in growth for metro Atlanta. Inside the perimeter areas will start to greater growth but steady growth due to the availability of land. Atlanta's metro can only go so far. So I think that Atlanta's metro won't grow so fast as it did back in 2007-2008 due to this issue.
Lastly, in 20 to 30 years, where do YOU plan to be?
20 or 30 years from now? Wow...I could tell you 2 or 3 years but 20 or 30?
I think the Atlanta metro area may not grow at the same rate it has in the past 20 years, and that would be a good thing, but unless the world economy just falls off a cliff (which no serious observers believe) then you will see economic growth, and the Atlanta metro area is an engine of that growth.
I look back at what this area looked like in 1982 when I first moved here to go to school. My sister moved here in 1979, and I watched her first house get built in Norcross near Ingram Rd and the country club (don't remember the name). That was the BOONIES in 1983. Gwinnett Place Mall was being built. Alpharetta was country.
So in 20 - 30 years from now, I would guess the changes that have taken place in south Gwinnett and south Cobb may move further north. Cherokee County may look more like Cobb does today with Forsyth looking more like Gwinnett and north Fulton look today. Clayton was a sleepy, slightly redneck-ish county back in the 80's, and today it's completely changed. If it continues on it's current path, things will spillover to Henry and Fayette, and in 20 to 30 years those counties may have much larger crime problems and be much less desirable.
People will start to make living decisions that enhance the quality of their lives. When you're iffy about money, you return to what's comfortable and meaningful. People just can't bank on continuing to earn more money every year, so we'll see fewer people buying houses they really can't afford (with adjustable mortgages) and more people opting for quality and sensibility over quantity and flashiness. My bet would be that most cities will start to see LOTS of gentrification in neighborhoods that would have been overlooked a few years ago, both in the cities and their suburbs.
People will start to make living decisions that enhance the quality of their lives. When you're iffy about money, you return to what's comfortable and meaningful. People just can't bank on continuing to earn more money every year, so we'll see fewer people buying houses they really can't afford (with adjustable mortgages) and more people opting for quality and sensibility over quantity and flashiness. My bet would be that most cities will start to see LOTS of gentrification in neighborhoods that would have been overlooked a few years ago, both in the cities and their suburbs.
When people overextend themselves, it's a bad thing. Whether that overextension is on a condo in Buckhead or a large house in Cumming doesn't matter. I reject what appears to be your assumption that "quality" equals the condo in Buckhead, while "quantity" equals the large house in Cumming. Different people have different lifestyles, and as long as you live within your means and don't try and live beyond them, whether you do that in a small gentrified home or condo intown or a huge mansion in the suburbs, then it's fine.
As for your income increasing every year....could we ever "bank on" it? That's the problem...younger people expected that homes would always appreciate and wages would always increase. Not having lived through a serious recession in the last 25 years has sheltered many people from reality. Nothing is fundamentally different today.
I wasn't making any assumptions about what people might call quality in a home... it definitely means different things to different people. I just expect that people will start to be a little more reasonable with their decisions and not extending themselves as much. We're doing the same thing ourselves.
I think that people are going to start moving closer in because people will figure out that living too far away from their jobs (like living in Buford, Griffin, Douglasville) they will enounter bad traffic. So in order to relieve them from traffic, people will start to move closer to their jobs (mainly downtown). As a result, you will probably see a decrease in growth for metro Atlanta. Inside the perimeter areas will start to greater growth but steady growth due to the availability of land. Atlanta's metro can only go so far. So I think that Atlanta's metro won't grow so fast as it did back in 2007-2008 due to this issue.
I see another trend that somewhat counters your thinking. As more and more people move to the burbs, work centers will emerge outside of the perimeter, so people won't have to schlep downtown to go to work. The ARC's Livable Centers Initiative is really starting to push that, and companies are already starting to work in the direction.
A perfect example is NCR- when they decided to move over 1,000 jobs to the Atlanta metro, they selected Duluth, rather than locating in downtown or midtown. Why? Could be because they don't need the "status address" of locating in a high-rise, and the associated higher rent for the space. Unless you're a company that has to be in downtown (high $$ lawyers, designers that work with downtown clients, Fortune 500-type firms), there's really no reason to locate there, and that's the case in many metro areas.
I grew up in central NJ, and there were hundreds of business parks with 3-6 story buildings, all loaded with firms that didn't have the need to pay Manhattan rents, and the areas around the business parks were where the folks who worked in the parks lived. Sure, some people still commuted into NYC, just like people commute to downtown/midtown here, but it's not the only option.
I do agree that growth will slow, and the metro area will see more infill development, even in the areas that are currently less dense. Rather than growing outward from Cherokee County out to Bartow or Pickens County, we'll likely see Cherokee County and the other current "outer ring" areas get developed more.
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Originally Posted by equinox63
Considering all the possible projects in and around atlanta (such as the midtown mile, mega mart, town brookhaven and the beltline) that may take 20 years or so to complete, how do you thing the city's demographic will change by then?
For example, will areas now populated with young couples and families be areas with maturing families or will those families move elsewhere in 20 to 30 years. If so, what will become of those areas? Will residents in the northern suburbs remain static, have incentive to move closer in, or be compelled to move further out? Will there be new enclaves for the extremely affluent? What areas will become the city's eyesores or trouble spots? Where will all the single young professionals go when they settle down, and who will replace them... (I guess more single young professionals)?
Your predictions?
Lastly, in 20 to 30 years, where do YOU plan to be?
I think it's all cyclical...I've watched the pattern in NW DeKalb County as it evolved from the new bedroom community for Atlanta in the 50's and 60's with a growing school system; from there the neighborhoods matured, the residents became empty nesters, and school enrollment declined (my alma mater was closed for this reason). Now young families are assuming ownership of the homes in this area and enrollment is again on the upswing. There's a reason that school systems don't automatically forfeit school plant in face of declining enrollment; they recognize this cycle as well.
I do agree with the assertion that the value of proximity to the city center is going to be a continuing trend long-term, and neighborhoods inside the perimeter will continue to gentrify. My guess is that neighborhoods that were built quickly, on the cheap, with little forethought, and with poor access to mass transportation will be the losers in the future.
Where do I plan to be in 20-30 years? Best case scenario is assisted living LOL.
I see another trend that somewhat counters your thinking. As more and more people move to the burbs, work centers will emerge outside of the perimeter, so people won't have to schlep downtown to go to work.
Bob, hasn't that been the trend for many years now in the Atlanta area? Norcross in the 1980s, Alpharetta and the Cumberland Mall area in the 1990s, Buford/Lawrencville in the 2000's?
I see another trend that somewhat counters your thinking. As more and more people move to the burbs, work centers will emerge outside of the perimeter, so people won't have to schlep downtown to go to work. The ARC's Livable Centers Initiative is really starting to push that, and companies are already starting to work in the direction.
A perfect example is NCR- when they decided to move over 1,000 jobs to the Atlanta metro, they selected Duluth, rather than locating in downtown or midtown. Why? Could be because they don't need the "status address" of locating in a high-rise, and the associated higher rent for the space. Unless you're a company that has to be in downtown (high $$ lawyers, designers that work with downtown clients, Fortune 500-type firms), there's really no reason to locate there, and that's the case in many metro areas.
I grew up in central NJ, and there were hundreds of business parks with 3-6 story buildings, all loaded with firms that didn't have the need to pay Manhattan rents, and the areas around the business parks were where the folks who worked in the parks lived. Sure, some people still commuted into NYC, just like people commute to downtown/midtown here, but it's not the only option.
I do agree that growth will slow, and the metro area will see more infill development, even in the areas that are currently less dense. Rather than growing outward from Cherokee County out to Bartow or Pickens County, we'll likely see Cherokee County and the other current "outer ring" areas get developed more.
NCR chose Duluth b/c they were coming from Dayton, OH...not exactly glamorous to begin with. They also had a ready built 200,000 sq ft facility they previously owned, sold to make their quarterly earnings, and leased back half of. NCR is a rapidly shrinking Fortune 500 w/o the money to pull off a beautiful status office. This company was on the Fortune 500 when it was conceived in the 1950's and will fall off the list in the next year or two. Perdue's 100M+ tax giveaway in that any payroll tax NCR collects they actually get to keep is the one and only thing helping their bottom line this year as retailers and banks cut back.
I worked there in '05-'06 and since then they've shed over 10,000 jobs (over 30% of their work force) in just over 3 years. The company's had financial troubles ever since their disastrous purchase by AT&T and subsequent spinoff. In 1990 they had over 60,000 employees and competed head to head w/ IBM on every front. Now they've ceded every tech front but kiosks, POS, and ATM's...all low margin and highly competitive.
BTW, if you want proof NCR would love nothing more than glamorous high dollar office, you need only see where the CEO is. Rather than move to Atlanta, he's remaining in 7 World Trade Center in the exec offices and flying the NCR exec jet down to ATL as needed.
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