Population growth vs. Employment growth (Atlanta, Dallas: job market, bankruptcy, quality of life)

[FromGA]

Please see stats below. Atlanta's population has grown at a rate faster than Dallas and Houston. But its private sector employment growth has been closer to that of northeastern cities. This disparity between Atlanta's population growth and employment growth is enormous (this seems to be the case throughout the 2000s, not just after the recent job losses).

One thought I have is that -- Policy makers probably need to work very hard to solve quality of life issues (especially transportation) in Atlanta, to make it an attractive option for employers. In the sunbelt, TX perhaps has a natural advantage (with or without Quality of Life issues being addressed).

Looking to hear analysis/opinion from others.

---
Atlanta
10 year population increase: +28.89%
10 year private sector employment % change: -4.2%

Houston
10 year population increase: +24.43%
10 year private sector employment % change: 10.7%

Dallas
10 year population increase: +24.92%
10 year private sector employment % change: 1.1%

Philadelphia
10 year population increase: +4.94%
10 year private sector employment % change: -3.3%

Boston:
10 year population increase: +4.49%
10 year private sector employment % change: -6.5%

Employment stats from:
Business First of Buffalo: At least Buffalo is not Detroit
(same organization as Atlanta Business Chronicle)

Population stats from:
Table of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Craziaskowboi]

I think a lot of Atlanta's population growth since 2000 has been fueled by both natural disasters and housing crises in nearby states. After the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, many people from Florida and Louisiana moved to Atlanta to get away from them. The housing crisis in Florida also benefited Atlanta to a degree. Conversely, Delta Airlines has shed lots of jobs since declaring bankruptcy in 2001, and many large banks in Atlanta were taken over by other banks.

Basically, Atlanta is sort of becoming a victim of its own success. It has an enviable brand equity, which is why lots of people move there. Unfortunately, the business reality in Atlanta hasn't lived up to the brand equity since 2000, and if this continues, then I expect growth to slow down this coming decade. It won't come to a screeching halt like it has in cities like Phoenix, but if job growth doesn't improve, then the population trends will eventually have to reflect this more closely. It's possible that natural increase and international immigration might be the only components of population growth in Atlanta this decade if job growth continues to lag.

[tonygeorgia]

Atlanta has up to 52 Headquarters and thousands of jobs coming here

[FromGA]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

Basically, Atlanta is sort of becoming a victim of its own success. It has an enviable brand equity, which is why lots of people move there. Unfortunately, the business reality in Atlanta hasn't lived up to the brand equity since 2000, and if this continues, then I expect growth to slow down this coming decade. It won't come to a screeching halt like it has in cities like Phoenix, but if job growth doesn't improve, then the population trends will eventually have to reflect this more closely. It's possible that natural increase and international immigration might be the only components of population growth in Atlanta this decade if job growth continues to lag.

Phoenix's stat is interesting. There was an actual gain in private sector employment, but the population swelled by a third in the past decade!
10 year population increase: +34.20%
10 year private sector employment % change: 6.4%

I think Atlanta's future success will depend on its "Quality of growth" (business increase), and not so much on the quantity of growth (population increase).

[netdragon]

Is this Atlanta or metro Atlanta? If the city of Atlanta, then this is all moot because most of the employment is in the core suburbs.

Keep in mind that children don't work. Many stay-at-home parents don't work or are self-employed.

Much of the new development was residential. On the other hand, most of the commercial buildings in Atlanta were built in the 90s or earlier. Aside from a few exceptions, more high-density residences are what's new (along with some associated coffee shops, gardners etc, which don't employ many people).

Anyway, labor is a market. What happened could be a sign that the labor pool was too small in the past and had to grow to accommodate new businesses.

[FromGA]

Originally Posted by netdragon

Is this Atlanta or metro Atlanta? If the city of Atlanta, then this is all moot because most of the employment is in the core suburbs.

This must be for the metro, as the number of pvt sector jobs is in the 2 million range.

Originally Posted by netdragon

Anyway, labor is a market. What happened could be a sign that the labor pool was too small in the past and had to grow to accommodate new businesses.

You make a very valid point, and it made me think of this a bit differently. I looked at the data, and what I get is that --

10 yrs back Atlanta had 2.13 people per pvt sector job (4,247,981 people, 1,998,500 jobs). This is probably indicative of a red hot job market. Anyone with a pulse gets a job.

Today Atlanta has 2.86 people per pvt sector job (5,475,213 people, 1,913,700 jobs). This is probably indicative of a more mature job market. I suppose there is no cause for alarm. But when I checked against a few other cities, Atlanta's ratio was slightly on the higher side.

[FlyiMetro]

Originally Posted by tonygeorgia

Atlanta has up to 52 Headquarters and thousands of jobs coming here

stop putting on

[FromGA]

Originally Posted by FlyiMetro

stop putting on

I think his 52 headquarter statement is based on:

"The state Department of Economic Development confirmed that it has 52 headquarters projects in its pipeline of economic development deals. The headquarters represent the potential for 20,518 new jobs for the state and $216 billion in investment, according to the department."
Atlanta̢۪s in the sweet spot for corporate locations - Atlanta Business Chronicle:

However I am not sure that the above blurb translates to :
Atlanta has up to 52 Headquarters and thousands of jobs coming here