Best RE investment opportunities in Austin? (Houston, Dallas: fit in, mortgage, loan)

[Melissa78703]

Originally Posted by inthecut

no, those days are still here....not quite in the same way, or as much, but money can still be made in real estate...now you need a longer investment horizon, and a focus on foreclosures, and properties that have bottomed out in extremis, and be willing to hold onto them for a longer time, perhaps renting them out and fixing them up till appreciation kicks in, at an albeit slower pace...

I would agree. If I were a real investment daredevil, I'd purchase property directly east of I-35, around the downtown area. I suspect that in the coming decades, that neighborhood will be extremely gentrified, much like the area directly west of downtown (Clarksville). I foresee certain areas of Austin going up in value as real estate in towns/burbs like Round Rock, Cedar Park, Steiner Ranch, Circle C, etc. depreciating precipitously.

My ex-H was a complete a&&, but he is an exemplary financial analyst; one thing that he told me -- and always insisted on for us -- is purchasing property as close to the downtown core as possible, if not in downtown. Suburbia will eventually become history, IMHO. Perhaps in my lifetime, perhaps not, but I wouldn't care to wager.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by Melissa78703

I would agree. If I were a real investment daredevil, I'd purchase property directly east of I-35, around the downtown area. I suspect that in the coming decades, that neighborhood will be extremely gentrified, much like the area directly west of downtown (Clarksville). I foresee certain areas of Austin going up in value as real estate in towns/burbs like Round Rock, Cedar Park, Steiner Ranch, Circle C, etc. depreciating precipitously.

My ex-H was a complete a&&, but he is an exemplary financial analyst; one thing that he told me -- and always insisted on for us -- is purchasing property as close to the downtown core as possible, if not in downtown. Suburbia will eventually become history, IMHO. Perhaps in my lifetime, perhaps not, but I wouldn't care to wager.

I think the ex is right on both counts...just a matter of time...and sprawl, along with the maga mansion/commute, definitely is on the way out...those that can swim right behind that wave should make out well. Those that bet on future sprawl growth, and mega-mansions/builders, prob not so much so.

Not sure that RE in the suburbs will depreciate, but I certainly think they will grow very slowly in appreciation.....all depends on a few variables...how Austin's economy fares next 5 years, how much infrastructure is able to be maintained ala roads, how energy prices hold...if we DO have a huge energy price shoot up, as China seems to be cornering the world market in the same, AND our local economy slows/flatlines, AND we can no longer maintain long tendrils of road networks, you prob WILL see the outlying suburbs depreciate and stop growing....some of the overbuilt inner suburbs may see slight depreciation and extremely slow growth rates as well....all ultimately comes down to Austin's economy in next 5 years....if IT tanks, RE tanks all over, especially farther out...if it can maintain, then RE prices flatline or grow slowly, and you will see a lot of people moving to gentrify that area east of DT

[oldtoiletsmkgdflrpots]

All that theory is nice but the bottom line is people purchase what they can afford and many times that is in the outlying areas like Hutto, RR, Georgetown, Pflugerville. I would also argue some people prefer living in the suburbs vs the city.

Suburbia will never go away. If anything the world population is growing and growing.

What employers should start doing in the tech industry is allowing more of their employees to work from home. There really isn't any reason someone working with a computer all day should go in to work if they can do the same job from home.

[jobert]

I would purchase along the Colorado east of Longhorn Dam - anywhere all the way to Bastrop.. if I was looking at a decade long investment. I don't think there are quick flips in this market, unless we're talking about a few overpriced suburbs during the 2004-2007 period.. but that was an anomaly.

[austin-steve]

First, unless you know you'll remain in the home for at least 3 years, preferably 5, just go ahead and rent. The exception would be if you want to acquire sweat-equity through a "slow flip", which means buying a junker and fixing it up yourself while living there such that you have instant equity. But even that is risky.

Second, don't overthink the purchase. People who overthink the home buying process, and succumb to analysis paralysis, make worse decisions than those who stick to the basics.

I personally believe east side investing is still speculative and subject to variables I don't like. If I was 23 and single, I'd buy a cheap small house there maybe, but other than the lifestyle demographic reasons, I'm not a fan of east Austin real estate.

For those with a 3+ year time horizon, you buy based on what you need, whether it's proximity to your employer, good schools, price range, etc. But nothing has changed with regard to Price, Location and Condition being the three main factors. Stick to the average or median price range in whatever neighborhood you select. Avoid "misfit attributes" in whatever home you select (steep driveways, backing to parking lots, odd layouts, etc), and avoid homes with condition issues you're not willing to cure or accept.

With regard to expected appreciation, we are at present in the midst of a building lot shortage in Austin that hasn't fully revealed itself to the casual observer, so I definitely see prices rising near term once the current economic hangover ends, the political/regulatory uncertainty is resolved, and American consumer return to their irresponsible spending habits. All of these things will happen sooner than we now realize, though the velocity of some aspects may be more of a slow roll, but rolling forward nonetheless.

Steve

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by oldtoiletsmkgdflrpots

All that theory is nice but the bottom line is people purchase what they can afford and many times that is in the outlying areas like Hutto, RR, Georgetown, Pflugerville. I would also argue some people prefer living in the suburbs vs the city.

Suburbia will never go away. If anything the world population is growing and growing.

What employers should start doing in the tech industry is allowing more of their employees to work from home. There really isn't any reason someone working with a computer all day should go in to work if they can do the same job from home.

No, suburbs aren't going away by any means, but they are not going to sprawl and grow like they once did, and for many reasons....boomers with the mega-mansions are all retiring/downsizing in next 5-10 years, very few young homebuyers period coming up behind them to purchase, let alone any able to swing now hard-to-get mortgages, energy prices prob shooting up again more than ever sometime in next 3-4 years, but, most of all, the sources of funds to build out the roads that facilitate sprawl, along with the infrastructure for new burbs/expanding burbs, is FAR harder to obtain...the builders themselves have no means to build the same, and essentially were subsidized by our own taxes, RE and otherwise, for building out that infrastructure....that money won't be there anymore, along with the funding for new retail and new construction....it will be difficult just to maintain what we have...

Secondly, per green initiatives, convenience, and quality of life issues, along with affordability that goes with denser infrastructure, central city living will be the growth factor..it will not boom like crazy, but it will be the only source of growth that will be large enough to interest investors and excite...

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by rubberneck

Any and all opinions are welcome. It's a gamble no matter what, but I'm interested in what your rationales are.

lake property has been hit pretty hard. Buyers are bargaining extremely hard as the market for lake property has really tanked.

I would also say any acreage inside 130 or just outside as over time you can turn it into a subdivision. Put goats on it and get the taxes lowered as well via an ag exemption

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by inthecut

I think the ex is right on both counts...just a matter of time...and sprawl, along with the maga mansion/commute, definitely is on the way out...those that can swim right behind that wave should make out well. Those that bet on future sprawl growth, and mega-mansions/builders, prob not so much so.

Not sure that RE in the suburbs will depreciate, but I certainly think they will grow very slowly in appreciation.....all depends on a few variables...how Austin's economy fares next 5 years, how much infrastructure is able to be maintained ala roads, how energy prices hold...if we DO have a huge energy price shoot up, as China seems to be cornering the world market in the same, AND our local economy slows/flatlines, AND we can no longer maintain long tendrils of road networks, you prob WILL see the outlying suburbs depreciate and stop growing....some of the overbuilt inner suburbs may see slight depreciation and extremely slow growth rates as well....all ultimately comes down to Austin's economy in next 5 years....if IT tanks, RE tanks all over, especially farther out...if it can maintain, then RE prices flatline or grow slowly, and you will see a lot of people moving to gentrify that area east of DT

I think the ex is totally wrong. There is a fundamental need for many people to want to have a space of their own where they can do what they want. There is a need for many people to not be crowded in with others. You only have to look at the human race historically to see that there is always a mix of urban and suburban/rural. The car has allowed more people to have the best of both worlds. Living in a less crowded, noisy, dirty, busy area, but having access to the jobs and amenities that a city provides.

The rich have always had estates away from the core while the poor were forced to live where they worked.

[jobert]

Originally Posted by Austin97

lake property has been hit pretty hard. Buyers are bargaining extremely hard as the market for lake property has really tanked.

But has it tanked to the point of being reasonably priced yet? I think any property that is valued well in comparison to it's utility will do well. Paying for scarcity (real or perceived) is a luxury that people won't pay for anymore. This false sense of scarcity is what drove the real estate mania over the last 10 years, and people are wiser to it now.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by jobert

But has it tanked to the point of being reasonably priced yet? I think any property that is valued well in comparison to it's utility will do well. Paying for scarcity (real or perceived) is a luxury that people won't pay for anymore. This false sense of scarcity is what drove the real estate mania over the last 10 years, and people are wiser to it now.

Jobert, the scarcity is now in access to capital/financing..and that applies to builders of commercial/residential as well....and that will be true for many years to come....