So if/when Lake Travis dries up... (Austin, Center: buy, price)

[Tralfaz]

Originally Posted by Eastcoasting

If Lake Travis were to go completely dry it would also be lock step with a level of drought/disaster that would send everyone in TX, NM, NV, CA and a few other places packing up and moving East.

Detroit could be a boomtown!

Naah, just build water pipelines to the Great Lakes, and thorium LFTR reactors on the Gulf coast for power and desalinization. Much better than moving to Detroit.

[die Eichkatze]

Originally Posted by janejanejanejanejane

What happens to our house values? What else will change?

I guess technically it is possible for Lake Travis to dry up, but it is more likely that the lake will fill in with sedimentation to the point where it is no longer useful before the lake would go dry.

If your house was around the lake, then obviously you would see a big impact. The impact on the rest of the metro area could also be hurt if another source was not brought online before the lake went dry. The stench coming from a dried-up lake Travis would be horrible, and you wouldn't want to be anywhere close to it.

Where would we turn?
Most other central Texas lakes are already allocated to other entities. You may find a few 1,000 acre ft here and there but not enough to make a dent. The Edwards Aquifer is already being pumped at capacity, and if Lake Travis is dry, which means we haven't had any significant rain, then this source will also be severely hurt. Which also means our neighbor to the south and their +2 million residents will also be in search of water. The Trinity Aquifer is already over pumped and no precip would make that source unreliable. To the east we have the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer which holds some potential and would help, but it would need a lot more help. Further south and east is the Gulf Coast Aquifer, and again holds some potential, but wouldn't fulfill all our needs. What surface water that would remain under this senerio would be in east Texas, and Houston and Dallas have their claws dug in pretty deep there.
The most prolific aquifer in the state is the Ogallala in the Texas Panhandle. While there are some areas within this aquifer that still have a significant amount of water, most areas are on a severe decline and major irrigated agricultural production will cease to exist within 50 years, and the major cities in west Texas have already bought the rights to the water located in the areas with deep pools....good luck getting it from them, not to mention the cost of piping it all the way down here.

This basically leaves us with desalination and also reclamation. One involves taking poor quality water from brackish aquifers or the ocean and making it drinkable. There are several groundwater sources nearby that would probably be utilized first, before we attempt the much more expensive ocean desal. Reclamation involves taking our waste water and making it clean enough to reuse. Both of these options are already in use in Texas, and will most likely become more common in the decades to come.

Either way it would hit us hard in the pocketbook.

[die Eichkatze]

Originally Posted by buffettjr

The lake is only higher this year than last because the state stepped in and shut off sending water to people who actually want it. I'm talking about rice farmers, as well as the utility and our city instigating water restrictions on the rest of the customers. We already have demand that outstrips supply and need government to come in and ration our water. I think the author posts a pretty legitimate concern and I don't see what is so amazing to you.

The actual state government didn't step in, unless you count the LCRA as a state government agency(more like quasi gov agency). Senior water right holders can "call in" their rights during low flow, and TCEQ can suspend junior water right holders, but this didn't happen on the lower portion of the Colorado River. It did happen on several rivers throughout the state last year, including several in east Texas.
Being that LCRA bought the most senior water rights from the rice farmers a few years ago, and therefore control most of the rights, they pretty much control the Colorado River.

[die Eichkatze]

Originally Posted by OpenD

Maybe not. Last year was the hottest summer on record. The country is in the worst drought in 56 years. Drastic changes in weather patterns have been occurring all over the globe. Even bird and butterfly migration patterns have shifted dramatically.

It is possible that the historic patterns will not return and that the type of recovery many currently expect from looking at historical records will not reappear. It is possible that the weather will spiral into a hotter and dryer pattern overall than we've ever seen before. There is definitely a credible possibility of permanent change which must be seriously considered.

In the words of the poet, "this ain't no disco, this ain't no CBGB, this ain't no foolin' around..."

The two big wild cards that throw a wrench into us becoming a complete desert is:
1) The Gulf of Mexico: A really large body of water that sits right next to us, and will still influence our weather. Moisture at some point would flow in and produce rain, and tropical systems will still be here no matter what happens.
2) El Niño/La Nina: Global ocean currents play a HUGE role in our weather here in Texas. How much these currents would change due to climate change is anybody's guess. Maybe the ENSO favors a warmer trend with rising ocean temps, which would mean El Nino, which typically leads to more rain for Texas...

[EzPeterson]

Originally Posted by buffettjr

The lake is only higher this year than last because the state stepped in and shut off sending water to people who actually want it. I'm talking about rice farmers, as well as the utility and our city instigating water restrictions on the rest of the customers. We already have demand that outstrips supply and need government to come in and ration our water. I think the author posts a pretty legitimate concern and I don't see what is so amazing to you.

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphoto...7_747681_n.jpg

http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphoto...94052991_n.jpg

If you don't think that affects property values, you must be a pretty terrible investor.

IF, I had sunk money into a lakefront investment, on the lake used as a "shock absorber" for the LCRA, THEN planted 9,000 square feet of sod around that home, THEN expected a consistent return on this investment, regardless of lake level - THEN thought to question usage affecting my investment value... that would indeed make me a ****-poor investor. The OP's "concern" about lake levels affecting property values only apply to lakeside homes. Maybe 0.05% of the property in the greater Austin area.

The rice farmers planted rice in a desert, and pay water rates that regular customers haven't seen since the 40's - I have no sympathy for them.

What I find amazing is this consistent thread in people's thinking that Lake Travis is totally unusable. Do you realize how many local businesses you affect with this myopic thinking? That every time you propagate this kind of misinformation you probably take one day's pay away from a job that is dependent on lake visitors? Heck, the best time to be on LT is when the public ramps are closed. I've spent many an afternoon out there with my family, enjoying a lake that isn't so crazy packed!

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by die Eichkatze

...

This basically leaves us with desalination and also reclamation.

...

Or severe change of habits. Anyone who has ever done back woods camping knows that a tiny bit of water can go a very long way when used in a frugal way. You can bath with 1 cup of water.

We just don't think that way today, but may have to someday. Long daily showers, leaving the water running when brushing teeth, lush yards, etc. may all have to become habits of the past.

Steve

[buffettjr]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

Approximately 1/2 of the water 'used' from Lake Travis is evaporation. The next biggest chunk is rice farming, which is a very small industry that happens to use a lot of water.

Evaporation that may get worse if every summer brings with it a high pressure dome that parks over the city and brings 40-50 100+ days and blocks any rain from reaching the recharge zones.

The reality is none of us know whether this is a one-off aberration like 1923-1925 or a trend. My point is that it is a legitimate concern and someone asking about it should not "amaze" anyone *as if to suggest an abundance of ignorance). Ask the people who's homes are in that picture whether their property values are currently impacted.

[Trainwreck20]

Well, they are impacted if you live on the lake. If you are not on the lake, then no, they have not (and will not be impacted in the immediate future). For long-term housing values to be impacted that are not on the lake, it is not the level of the lake that is important, but the supply of water. If alternate supplies are available (or the lake maintains enough for municipal usage), then the housing prices will not be affected.

Honestly, we are kind of toying with the idea of buying a small 'weekend' house on lake Buchanan - the home prices are down along with the water (and interest rate), but we are pretty confident that they will be back in the relatively near future.

[die Eichkatze]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Or severe change of habits. Anyone who has ever done back woods camping knows that a tiny bit of water can go a very long way when used in a frugal way. You can bath with 1 cup of water.

We just don't think that way today, but may have to someday. Long daily showers, leaving the water running when brushing teeth, lush yards, etc. may all have to become habits of the past.

Steve

Very true, I sizable portion of the state's long term water plan is water conservation strategies.

[OpenD]

As I just posted elsewhere, Austin is going back to Stage 2 water restrictions next week. The drought goes on.