Large number of home appreciation threads (Austin, Round Rock: cul-de-sac, transplants, for sale)

[TXEX06]

There seems to be a large number of home appreciation threads with people looking at short term appreciation. Do you think many new transplants are looking to jump ship in a few years to the next hip city, or long term investor's? It seems every area of the city and the surrounding burbs are having or have had great appreciation.

[sunshineandflipflops]

What do you consider short term versus long term? I'm considering a new home that will last me 10-12 years minimum and I view that as long term.

[TXEX06]

Short term as in around five years. Five year seems to be pretty common among these appreciation threads. And for long term I agree with you, 10 years plus.

[centralaustinite]

I don't worry too much about owner-occupied homes chasing appreciation because they are also getting the value of a space to live in, what does make me sad and a bit worried are out of state investors buying homes strictly as an investment based on appreciation. If they are rented out long-term, then the local housing gains a unit but if they are STR or even weirder -- and there is one on my block, kept empty -- then the area has lost a unit of housing!

[iamwayne]

Expect 51% appreciation or if you want to call it, dollar devaluation. Start with your 2012 home price: ie $350k and in 5 years in 2017, it should be valued around $528k.

The revaluation started back around then, 2012 is my estimated timeline

Kyle Bass, the fiduciary for the UT investment fund that purchased $1billion in physical gold that the State of Texas is building a billion depository for said in a interview, "they are going to kill the dollar."

[verybadgnome]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

I don't worry too much about owner-occupied homes chasing appreciation because they are also getting the value of a space to live in, what does make me sad and a bit worried are out of state investors buying homes strictly as an investment based on appreciation. If they are rented out long-term, then the local housing gains a unit but if they are STR or even weirder -- and there is one on my block, kept empty -- then the area has lost a unit of housing!

Worries me too as my property taxes creep up. Lots of investors on this forum asking about zip codes I have bought in, but I never offer my opinion. I would rather give free advice to those with "skin in the game" who would consider Austin a community rather than a commodity.

[gpurcell]

Got a house down the block from me in North University that has been completely empty for at least three years. Oddest thing.

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by iamwayne

Expect 51% appreciation or if you want to call it, dollar devaluation. Start with your 2012 home price: ie $350k and in 5 years in 2017, it should be valued around $528k.

The revaluation started back around then, 2012 is my estimated timeline

Kyle Bass, the fiduciary for the UT investment fund that purchased $1billion in physical gold that the State of Texas is building a billion depository for said in a interview, "they are going to kill the dollar."

Well gold was 1400-1500 an ounce then, now under 1100 so it might not have been the best call at the end of the day

[scm53]

Originally Posted by iamwayne

Kyle Bass, the fiduciary for the UT investment fund that purchased $1billion in physical gold that the State of Texas is building a billion depository for said in a interview, "they are going to kill the dollar."

That $1B is about 5% of the fund's assets. Doesn't sound too "all in" to me. Sounds like prudent asset diversification, and nothing more.

[eileenkeeney]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

I don't worry too much about owner-occupied homes chasing appreciation because they are also getting the value of a space to live in, what does make me sad and a bit worried are out of state investors buying homes strictly as an investment based on appreciation. If they are rented out long-term, then the local housing gains a unit but if they are STR or even weirder -- and there is one on my block, kept empty -- then the area has lost a unit of housing!

Maybe this explains the increase in homes for lease, vs homes for sale, in my cul-de-sac.
Homes sell fast if priced well, and then become rentals.
But I don't see them renting out quickly.
Rent is as high as a house payment, and with a house payment there is equity involved.

Prices may be peaking. The few houses I have been watching, are actually dropping in price. The drop is slight, but it is still a drop.
This is in far North Austin, as far North as one can go without crossing into Round Rock.