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Old 07-19-2016, 12:49 PM
 
Location: central Austin
7,228 posts, read 16,105,799 times
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Interesting data here:

New Post on Civic Analytics

Five Texas counties ranked among the top twenty counties nationally in number of movers from other states in 2011-2014: Travis (#3), Harris (#5), Dallas (#10), Tarrant (#14), and Bexar (#16).

But of that group, out-of-state movers made up a clear majority (66%) of total domestic movers in only Travis County, i.e. 34% of people moving to Travis County from somewhere else in the US came from some other county in Texas. Bexar County (San Antonio) and Harris County (Houston) were about evenly split between in-state and out-of-state, but Dallas County (62% in-state) and Tarrant County (60% in-state) tipped strongly in the other direction. Same goes for Williamson, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, and most other large, fast-growing suburban counties around the state.

For a long LONG time, most people moving to Austin were coming from other parts of Texas, this data is showing us something new. (Although many will have "felt" the change in a variety of ways)
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Old 07-19-2016, 01:52 PM
 
2,602 posts, read 2,980,690 times
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Hmm, those are interesting numbers, and I'm trying to make sense of them.

The source seems to be
https://www.irs.gov/uac/soi-tax-stats-migration-data
and
https://www.irs.gov/uac/soi-tax-stat...data-2013-2014 et al

Those number seem to give a population growth way above what the census has been estimating.

For instance, I'm looking at
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1314tx.xls

The field "Travis County Total Migration-US and Foreign" for both the county inflow and county outflow pages.
It lists 208145 for the inflow and 86,894 for the outflow, in the "number of exemptions field"

If I'm understanding correctly, that would correspond to a net population increase of ~122k. For just 2014.
(ignoring those not filing returns, but their growth at worse would have to be flat, wouldn't it?).

Travis County didn't have 10% population growth in one year, did it? (Census estimated ~3% 2013-2014).

Same thing with the original link
"An estimated 265,000 people moved to Travis County from other states in 2011-2014"

That's like 25% of the county in just 3 years. (not including outflows or in-state inflows.)


These numbers seem off somehow.

Last edited by Novacek; 07-19-2016 at 02:16 PM..
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Old 07-19-2016, 01:56 PM
 
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In contrast, for Harris county it lists a smaller county inflow number, ~168k.
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Old 07-19-2016, 05:43 PM
 
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Interesting that. I have long guessed that certain federal agencies are undercounting/under reporting population statistics. There are any number of reasons to do so. At the same time, for whatever reason, the IRS may be correctly counting and reporting the REAL number of people moving to a given location. Fascinating. Presumably, this also doesn't count those living in the shadows, not filing tax returns.
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Old 07-19-2016, 06:07 PM
 
145 posts, read 173,649 times
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Further, "Data do not represent the full U.S. population because many individuals are not required to file an individual income tax return".

So, if anything, this data undercounts migration unless:
1) there are a lot of people with Travis County addresses on their returns who don't actually live here.
2) they've counted individual taxpayers in TC multiple times.
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Old 07-20-2016, 07:51 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nacho_Friend View Post
Interesting that. I have long guessed that certain federal agencies are undercounting/under reporting population statistics.
But only for Travis County? (Harris seems a lot more reasonable)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nacho_Friend View Post
There are any number of reasons to do so.
Which are?

And there are plenty of _other_ government agencies which have a massive vested interest in reporting correct population numbers. the ISDs, especially Austin, would be screaming to the state for more funding if population growth was 3 times the official numbers. The CoA demographer would be reporting different numbers too.


Either I'm misreading this numbers (always a possibility) or there's some sort of dynamic in play which makes Travis County tax returns particularly odd.
Any chance there's a bunch of state government jobs which get reported as Travis County income even while not travis-resident?
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Old 07-20-2016, 08:35 AM
 
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How long is one a newcomer?
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Old 07-20-2016, 09:38 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX via San Antonio, TX
9,851 posts, read 13,701,644 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nacho_Friend View Post
Further, "Data do not represent the full U.S. population because many individuals are not required to file an individual income tax return".
Or don't in general. This data may not (I did not click links or read in detail) include undocumented immigrants who call Austin home now.
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Old 07-20-2016, 05:08 PM
 
145 posts, read 173,649 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
But only for Travis County? (Harris seems a lot more reasonable)


Which are?

And there are plenty of _other_ government agencies which have a massive vested interest in reporting correct population numbers. the ISDs, especially Austin, would be screaming to the state for more funding if population growth was 3 times the official numbers. The CoA demographer would be reporting different numbers too.


Either I'm misreading this numbers (always a possibility) or there's some sort of dynamic in play which makes Travis County tax returns particularly odd.
Any chance there's a bunch of state government jobs which get reported as Travis County income even while not travis-resident?
I didn't check out other counties but will.

Many have accused the census bureau and other agencies of doing a less than adequate job of counting. On the Left, they blame it on racism.

http://thegrio.com/2012/05/24/2010-c...lacks-latinos/

That said, could it be UT that results in the massive influx of taxpayers? Students who come to town, get a job and have their 1099 delivered to their local address?
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Old 07-20-2016, 08:07 PM
 
313 posts, read 786,512 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nacho_Friend View Post
I didn't check out other counties but will.

Many have accused the census bureau and other agencies of doing a less than adequate job of counting. On the Left, they blame it on racism.

2010 Census undercount could spell disaster for blacks, Latinos | theGrio

That said, could it be UT that results in the massive influx of taxpayers? Students who come to town, get a job and have their 1099 delivered to their local address?
90% of freshmen at UT are Texas residents so they'd skew it the other way

https://admissions.utexas.edu/explore/freshman-profile
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