Austin's growth has slowed considerably (Houston, San Antonio: 2015, movers, how much)

[cBach]

If you look at the city census results which came out at midnight last night, you'll see that Austin's growth has slowed tremendously whereas San Antonio's has picked up.

A lot of people had been thinking back in 2014 that by now we would've exceeded 1 million people, but we haven't. We are hanging in there at 950k and it looks like people are choosing either our suburbs (Pfugerville in particular grew a lot, as did Cedar Park) or straight down to San Antonio, which had the largest numeric increase of all cities.

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentra...elands_po.html

Also, Houston has really slowed down in growth and this is pre-Harvey.

I know this is a Cleveland article but if you scroll down they have a nifty app where you can select a city and state and get the city results.

Thoughts?


Austin city, Texas
April 2010 (census) 790,390
July 2010 806,463
July 2011 828,700
July 2012 854,350
July 2013 874,910
July 2014 900,621
July 2015 919,974
July 2016 938,200
July 2017 950,715
Change from census 160,325
Percent change 20.3%

San Antonio city, Texas
April 2010 (census) 1,327,407
July 2010 1,333,413
July 2011 1,357,900
July 2012 1,383,505
July 2013 1,408,910
July 2014 1,435,554
July 2015 1,464,147
July 2016 1,487,738
July 2017 1,511,946
Change from census 184,539
Percent change 13.9%

Houston city, Texas
April 2010 (census) 2,099,451
July 2010 2,099,256
July 2011 2,125,450
July 2012 2,159,824
July 2013 2,198,244
July 2014 2,238,795
July 2015 2,282,235
July 2016 2,304,482
July 2017 2,312,717
Change from census 213,266
Percent change 10.2%

My thoughts are:
* Really, only 8,000 for Houston?
* Austin declined from +26k to +12k with decreases in net increase each year, is this a trend. Assuming same rate of decrease we will maybe only get +5k next year? Thoughts?
* San Antonio increased from +23k to +24k, they are getting the increases we used to get.

[Ivory Lee Spurlock]

I wonder how much of an effect the Hurricane Harvey flooding had on Houston's population.

I wonder if Austin is beginning to price itself out to potential newcomers. An average home price of nearly $300,000 and property taxes around 5 to $6,000 a year might be pretty intimidating to a young couple just starting out.

I wonder how much of San Antonio's gain is due to annexation rather than newcomers moving there. I remember a news report in the last year or two that city leaders of San Antonio had plans to annex enough land that would push it's city population past Phoenix and San Antonio would becomes the nation 5th (or 6th) largest city.

If Texas is slowing down in growth, it's only a matter of time until it takes off again. Everything is only tempirary.

[rynetwo]

Originally Posted by Ivory Lee Spurlock

I wonder how much of an effect the Hurricane Harvey flooding had on Houston's population.

I wonder if Austin is beginning to price itself out to potential newcomers. An average home price of nearly $300,000 and property taxes around 5 to $6,000 a year might be pretty intimidating to a young couple just starting out.

I wonder how much of San Antonio's gain is due to annexation rather than newcomers moving there. I remember a news report in the last year or two that city leaders of San Antonio had plans to annex enough land that would push it's city population past Phoenix and San Antonio would becomes the nation 5th (or 6th) largest city.

If Texas is slowing down in growth, it's only a matter of time until it takes off again. Everything is only tempirary.

San Antonio did not annex any land during this time period.

[cBach]

Originally Posted by Ivory Lee Spurlock

I wonder how much of an effect the Hurricane Harvey flooding had on Houston's population.

I wonder if Austin is beginning to price itself out to potential newcomers. An average home price of nearly $300,000 and property taxes around 5 to $6,000 a year might be pretty intimidating to a young couple just starting out.

I wonder how much of San Antonio's gain is due to annexation rather than newcomers moving there. I remember a news report in the last year or two that city leaders of San Antonio had plans to annex enough land that would push it's city population past Phoenix and San Antonio would becomes the nation 5th (or 6th) largest city.

If Texas is slowing down in growth, it's only a matter of time until it takes off again. Everything is only tempirary.

Yeah in the Texas forum people were stating that San Antonio didn't annex any land. Also, look at New Braunfels, it has one of the highest percentage gains in the country.

SA's economy is based on the military, tourism, O&G, and healthcare. O&G was declining last year and the military has been stagnant for a long time, so the healthcare industry must be going gangbusters. There are also a lot of call centers.

To be honest I don't understand SA's growth except that maybe it's attracting people priced out of Austin.

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by cBach

To be honest I don't understand SA's growth except that maybe it's attracting people priced out of Austin.

Less expensive than Austin, similar climate, and the manufacturing sector is doing really well currently.

[centralaustinite]

Some of it is just the bias that comes from looking at the city level, Austin is getting built out and certainly price-prohibitive for many, counties tell a different story, Travis county is level but Williamson and especially HAYS are seeing incredible growth! So if you look at the five county area: Hays, Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, and Caudwell County, you will see tremendous growth.



Looking at growth by counties around SA tells a story of even more growth too!

[ashbeeigh]

USAA and rack space may have an influence in the population growth. UTSA’s reputation is getting better and I wouldn’t doubt if some students are staying in SA in the same way students in Austin do.

[Ivory Lee Spurlock]

Here's a link to an article, from the SA Express in November of 2014 concerning SA annex plans.


https://m.mysanantonio.com/news/loca...st-5889098.php

[scot892]

Looks like the trend is going down to about one percent.

It continues down but the housing cost surely seems like a reverse correlation to it. Maybe, at some point due to declining of influx of people, supply of housing will increase which will eventually bring the housing cost down. That would be great for everyone since you pay less property tax and cheaper to buy for new owners.

But, seems like most people are moving here for jobs, so, as long as job movers are coming, there will be continued growth in population but if those jobs and the wages for people who have jobs here does not keep up with cost of living, I can see the continued slow in growth.

[Antny12]

any way to see what the growth is for cities under 50,000 people on last census since those aren’t considered?