Another Californian Possibly Moving In... (Austin, Orange: real estate, home, buying)

[BobPhipps]

Originally Posted by Austin97

If elections are 52-48 conservative to liberal, then an influx could shift the ratio and change which politicians get elected.

I'm not sure how this discussion switched to politics. It really has nothing to do with anything I was talking about. I thought the conversation was about Austin. I assure you, no one from California is having any impact on that front on the city of Austin. I'm pretty damn sure they're already there. And no, that's not the voting demographic for Austin (or Travis County).

[BobPhipps]

And forgot to mention, that 8% of Austin's population amounts to .26% on a statewide basis so it's even more absurd to think it's had some significant role in any statewide or national election.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by BobPhipps

I'm not sure how this discussion switched to politics. It really has nothing to do with anything I was talking about. I thought the conversation was about Austin. I assure you, no one from California is having any impact on that front on the city of Austin. I'm pretty damn sure they're already there. And no, that's not the voting demographic for Austin (or Travis County).

I think he’s speaking in terms of influence if say the votes were already fairly close (52 / 48) that a insignificant number of Californians could help in regards to tipping the bucket so to speak and the reason he brought up politics is that although the numbers of Californians relocating may be minute, the ramifications of political change would have a pretty big impact, on the trajectory of the city (or state) although, Californians solely are largely ‘not’ responsible for that change and Austin and its metro would have been well on its way in that direction regardless.

Dallas is getting more Californians than Austin is by large but I still wonder why Hays and Williamson flipped blue this election. It could have largely been backlash against Trump but it would be worth seeing if or how out of state migrations affected the political stance of Austin metro.

[BobPhipps]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

I think he’s speaking in terms of influence if say the votes were already fairly close (52 / 48) that a insignificant number of Californians could help in regards to tipping the bucket so to speak and although the numbers of Californians relocating may be minute, the ramifications of political change would have a pretty big impact, although, Californians solely are largely ‘not’ responsible for that change and Austin and its metro would have been well on its way in that direction regardless

Dallas is getting more Californians than Austin is by large but I still wonder why Hays and Williamson flipped blue this election. It could have largely been backlash against Trump but it would be worth seeing if or how out of state migrations affected the political stance of Austin metro.

I already replied to that Camaro (we were probably posting at the same time). It's .26% on a statewide basis and insignificant (and clearly it has no impact on a citywide basis... it's not like Austin/Travis wasn't already blue). He should really just drop it as he doesn't have the numbers to back up his claims. Not to mention, I think it's somewhat derailing the thread so I will make it my last comment on this portion of the conversation.

I believe Williamson went blue because of the pandemic and what was perceived as a lack of concern nationally. Been to Sun City lately? They're hiding in their homes. Older demographics are terrified of this virus and don't think much of anyone taking it lightly.

[Need4Camaro]

Fair points.

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by BobPhipps

I'm not sure how this discussion switched to politics. It really has nothing to do with anything I was talking about. I thought the conversation was about Austin. I assure you, no one from California is having any impact on that front on the city of Austin. I'm pretty damn sure they're already there. And no, that's not the voting demographic for Austin (or Travis County).

you literally are the one that started the conversation about politics when you said

Define flocking.

The notion that Californians have had such an influence on Austin when using your figure (8%) or the KVUE figure at 6% is a misnomer. Clearly the 53.2% moving from different parts of Texas would have the biggest impact.

It's just another example of something that wasn't true that got bandied about on the internet so often that people started believing it.

I was just posting an article with stats on the actual recent numbers of californians.

You then said that californians would have no influence on austin when the number is 8%. And I posted exactly how they could have an outsized influence if they were enough to flip the dem/rep balance.

[ScoPro]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

Kind of offended by that hypothesis. I got my master's degree and relocated to Austin after graduating for some new scenery. I actually have met quite a few well-educated people who have moved to Austin post-grad school just for some change. Of most of the construction workers that I've met, they're mostly first generation immigrants or local Austinites who are just following along their family path of lower-income jobs. The service workers who have shared where they're from are from all over the place, not just Texas.

As I said, I’m just guessing... not trying to offend anyone.

But it is interesting to note the complaints about how the culture of the city has changed - from “sleepy” college/government town prior to the mid-1960s, to the “slacker” & hippie lifestyle of the 1970s & early 80s along with the rising music scene, then on to the Tech boom of the 1990s to the present.
The politics have morphed as time went on.

[ScoPro]

Originally Posted by Austin97

you literally are the one that started the conversation about politics when you said



I was just posting an article with stats on the actual recent numbers of californians.

You then said that californians would have no influence on austin when the number is 8%. And I posted exactly how they could have an outsized influence if they were enough to flip the dem/rep balance.

That is what I am contending too.

[BobPhipps]

Originally Posted by Austin97

you literally are the one that started the conversation about politics when you said



I was just posting an article with stats on the actual recent numbers of californians.

You then said that californians would have no influence on austin when the number is 8%. And I posted exactly how they could have an outsized influence if they were enough to flip the dem/rep balance.

Actually I didn't say anything about politics prior to you bringing it up (nor did the OP). In fact, I don't think I've ever heard anyone in Austin make a comment like "if we don't stop these Californians from coming into Austin, it's going to turn blue". It would be laughable though if I did ever hear something like that. It does sound like that is the main thing on your mind. I was also focusing on the Austin/Travis County area, as that is what the topic (and subforum) is about (not the state). And any influence in relation to politics has already happened (Austin has been blue for quite some time).

The main complaints I've heard from people in Austin in regards to outsiders coming in are related to the cost of living (specifically housing) and an increase in traffic.

And as stated, the numbers don't support any of the claims you have made regarding politics. The Austin/Travis County area is not a 52/48 split, and a .26% representation of state voting (8% of Austin's population vs the 29 million in the state) will not have a significant influence on any state or national elections in the state of Texas. I'm into actuals numbers, not conjecture (ie "if").

And Dub, sorry your thread got sidetracked a little, but actually it's a good thing for you to be aware of the actual numbers as at some point, you may hear a comment or two. That happened with a few of my clients and they backtracked quickly when I showed them the KVUE report.

[ScoPro]

I would guess the main complaining about newbs driving up the housing costs is based on the substantial numbers of out of state buyers coming in with cash offers and generating bidding wars for properties.

Texans like to focus the blame on Californians, but seem to forget that foreign buyers make up the largest portion of that demographic, or so I read not long ago.