Austin housing bubble (insurance, homes, neighborhood)

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by rangergrit

But you do need to be a cloud to precipitate.

If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the precipitate....

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the precipitate....

As they say in the water business, the solution to pollution is dilution.

[ericsami]

Originally Posted by atxcio

First property I bought in Austin was a 5/1 ARM. In 1996. It was the only way I could qualify for the payment on such an "expensive" 180K house back then And yes I did end up refinancing before the 5 years was up.

you cannot compare the power of the U.S dollar in the 1990s when the U.S had come out the cold war victorious.

It is very likely that treasury rates will continue to affordable (because the entire world's fincial system is based on u.s treasury issuing so much debt). but there is no guarantee behind it.

For example to ramp up the tension with China over Taiwan and man-made islands the treasury rates could very well go up.

so yes 5 year arm will likely be refinanciable.

however, the scenarios is not as likely as the 1900s.

[Ice_Major]

Is anyone else noticing the shift in new construction. I'm seeing inventory come available when for years now prospective buyers had to go on a waiting list and bid for lots. Even seeing price cuts. I've read about the increasing rate of buyer cancellations due to rising interest rates. Granted a $15K price cut isn’t that much when the house went up 200K in 2 years.

[Need4Camaro]

Can’t speak for new construction in Austin but I have heard of some metro areas seeing slowdown in new construction because more existing housing inventory has become available. Higher interest rates may have reduced competition for existing homes. They may be canceling out on waiting periods for construction and purchasing existing homes if there is now less competition for them.

[riaelise]

Originally Posted by Ice_Major

Is anyone else noticing the shift in new construction. I'm seeing inventory come available when for years now prospective buyers had to go on a waiting list and bid for lots. Even seeing price cuts. I've read about the increasing rate of buyer cancellations due to rising interest rates. Granted a $15K price cut isn’t that much when the house went up 200K in 2 years.

Yeah, I've read that too. that "waiting list" crap was ridiculous and a blatant cash grab. I feel bad for those who paid that silly premium.

There's a definite market correction here. More homes are sitting and eventually having to do price reductions. Not just in the suburbs either.

[ashbeeigh]

That 689k FSBO is still for sale.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by riaelise

Yeah, I've read that too. that "waiting list" crap was ridiculous and a blatant cash grab. I feel bad for those who paid that silly premium.

There's a definite market correction here. More homes are sitting and eventually having to do price reductions. Not just in the suburbs either.

I wouldn’t necessarily say it was a blatant cash grab. Builders released only the lots they were capable of building within a reasonable period of time and even those took much longer than normal to complete. This was all due to material shortages baring the pandemic. Too many buyers on the market due to record low interest rates, relocations due to various reasons (remote work, political, job relocations, ect) and supply was too tight (no one selling, no foreclosures, new home builds taking twice as long or more) . If supply were able to be built out as quickly as housing was demanded then yeah I would agree it would be a cash grab but the wait lists definitely had legitimate causes. Not favorable for buyers, but not necessarily illegitimate either.

Now on the other side of the story, there have been plenty of questionable practices that happened while people were waiting for their homes such as contracts being terminated without warning in leu of higher material costs leaving the buyer on the hook for any expenses until that period. (Technically it’s contractual, and has been contractual even before the pandemic but never exploited in such a mass level until recently … but still sucks.) where the builder profits and gets to sell the lot at a higher value to another buyer while the original buyer gets nothing out of it

[blameyourself]

Sales may be declining, but prices are not.

https://www.kvue.com/article/money/e...b-435ef20f34fc

[CamThomas]

Originally Posted by blameyourself

Sales may be declining, but prices are not.

https://www.kvue.com/article/money/e...b-435ef20f34fc

Austin, Boise and Phoenix have been some of the hottest markets. Wow.