Recession hitting Austin full-force this year - American Statesman (Cleveland: real estate, apartment)

[inthecut]

Just saw this on-line article....

According to the same, Austin will feel "extra-pain" as well........

Recession hitting Texas full force this year (http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/other/03/17/0317texecon.html - broken link)

Question.....why is the parade of out-of-state relocatees running away from THEIR job markets PICKING up steam, if anything? Has the cultural meme that Texas is the place to go for jobs that much strength? It's actually laughable that folks still get the impression that Texas has a hot job market.......

And think of the situation now....Texas itself is finally feeling the recession, and now they have to deal with thousands of downsized relocatees from across the country.......

Cultural memes evidentally take a very long time to dissipate!


Put another way....if you are thinking of relocating to Austin, and don't have a job lined up there, you might want to take a good luck at this article...

[future_itisnow]

Seriously? People can make their own assessments of what they are leaving behind and what they are moving into.

I have seen your posts, over and over and over on these boards. Spewing the same tired crap. Give it a rest. We get it.... You...Austin homer...do not want competition. Deal with it. Stop acting like you are doing folks a favor with these posts, you clearly have a self-serving agenda.

The question is directed at you...who do you represent? What are you selling?

Face it...relocation may slow down, but it is not going away my friend.

I have mentioned this before in another one of your scare tactic posts...IF YOU LIVED IN A MISERABLE LOCATION, THAT HAD A REAL UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM, and YOU LOVED ALL THAT AUSTIN HAD TO OFFER, YOU WOULD MOVE TO AUSTIN IN A HEARTBEAT.

Regardless of whether or not Austin has a 'hot' job market, Austin offers a far better quality of life and lower unemployment rate than many many other places.

You must realize this or else you wouldn't be in Austin enjoying yourself in the first place.

[centralaustinite]

Things are still much worse in other places. Plus, you do not seem to realize that growth (new people) has an economic momentum of its own. It is hard to stay in business in a place where the population is declining . . . but where it is growing . . . even the newspapers are staying in business. As are more realtors and apartment locators, apartment and building maintenance men, movers are doing better here than elsewhere, grocery stores stay busy and keep local farmers growing. More students mean more teachers, more restaurants can stay open and keep their cooks, busboys, and dishwashers employed. More people, particularly more educated more skilled workers, means employers can expand here, move here etc. More people also means more ideas, more entrepreneurs = more new businesses= more jobs. Right now, Austin is a fantastic place to start a new business (you can get cheap/free design work, people will trade and barter their editing skills, marketing skills, you can find highly skilled people willing to take a chance on a start-up AND Austin is one of only SIX cities that receive 2/3 of all venture capital funds in the US (the others are New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Silicon Valley and San Diego. So if you have a great idea, this is a great place to be.

Population growth can be managed, population decline is what decimates places! Get it straight. Go talk to the mayor of Cleveland, Detroit, or Buffalo . . .

Texas has always been a boom and bust state . . . we can handle a little population boom even in an economic bust, in fact it almost ensures that we will bust less, and for a shorter period of time than other places in the world.

[nomore07]

Could have fooled me. There are a few threads on this site from folks whose employers are transferring them from out of state.

[texastrigirl]

Austin is one of only SIX cities that receive 2/3 of all venture capital funds in the US (the others are New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Silicon Valley and San Diego.

centralaustinite...Where did you get that information?

The reason I ask is that the New Economy Index ranks it in order 1) San Fran 2) Seattle 3) Austin 4) Boston 5) Raleigh-Durham 6) Denver with 7) San Diego and La is 13th and New York is 16th. I am associated with the VC Community in Seattle and start ups are starting to tick again here. Just curious what metrics you are using. Regardless, Austin is a good place to be if you want to work with a start up though you need to have a certain stomach for the uncertainty of it all.

[centralaustinite]

Originally Posted by texastrigirl

centralaustinite...Where did you get that information?

The reason I ask is that the New Economy Index ranks it in order 1) San Fran 2) Seattle 3) Austin 4) Boston 5) Raleigh-Durham 6) Denver with 7) San Diego and La is 13th and New York is 16th. I am associated with the VC Community in Seattle and start ups are starting to tick again here. Just curious what metrics you are using. Regardless, Austin is a good place to be if you want to work with a start up though you need to have a certain stomach for the uncertainty of it all.

My source is the current issue of The Economist (March 14-19th) in the special report on entrepreneurship. They don't detail how they came up with that ranking (they might somewhere in the fine print but I have an impatient four year old pulling on my leg!) gotta go!

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by future_itisnow

Seriously? People can make their own assessments of what they are leaving behind and what they are moving into.

I have seen your posts, over and over and over on these boards. Spewing the same tired crap. Give it a rest. We get it.... You...Austin homer...do not want competition. Deal with it. Stop acting like you are doing folks a favor with these posts, you clearly have a self-serving agenda.

The question is directed at you...who do you represent? What are you selling?

Face it...relocation may slow down, but it is not going away my friend.

I have mentioned this before in another one of your scare tactic posts...IF YOU LIVED IN A MISERABLE LOCATION, THAT HAD A REAL UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM, and YOU LOVED ALL THAT AUSTIN HAD TO OFFER, YOU WOULD MOVE TO AUSTIN IN A HEARTBEAT.

Regardless of whether or not Austin has a 'hot' job market, Austin offers a far better quality of life and lower unemployment rate than many many other places.

You must realize this or else you wouldn't be in Austin enjoying yourself in the first place.

Did anyone actually read that article?....Its saying that Austin may soon experience
its biggest downturn EVER....not like the turn of the millenium, or even the 80's energy crunch recession......it's saying the downturn could be historic.......as we speak, the entire nation, from sea to shining sea, is experiencing a hard recession and financial implosion, with levels of debt, business and personal, not seen since the 30's.......and now that storm is blowing into Austin....and that frankly scares the bejesus out of many people, who don't care to think about it......

I'm not waxing hyberbolic here........and the large numbers of new Austin arrivals will easily jack the rate over the historic 6.7% mentioned in the article if it continues.....currently it's only 3 ticks away, at 6.4%........

Again, read that article in full, look at the numbers and forecasts in the same, and THEN tell us what you think.......without being personal....just address the issues and facts, as I am.........

[future_itisnow]

Originally Posted by inthecut

I knew that when the recession finally hit Austin no one would want to believe it...
notice how no one is addressing the issue itself? The facts are in that article......
which actually says that Austin may experience its highest ER in history if it goes beyond 6.7.....currently it is 6.4.........just too scary for most people to think about, especially people who are planning to move there...

Sacry???? Haha...6.7???? You can't be serious with that.

I can't speak for others on here, so I will tell you what I think about a recession in Austin. It's tough. But, it is light-weight stuff compared to many other markets in the US. As you know most cities in the mid-west would be happy to have a number like 6.7.

It would be great if Austin weren't going through a bit of a downturn, but it is. It does not make me change my mind one bit about relocating my family. Why would it? I guess you would have to be from present day Detroit, Cleveland, etc to truly understand.

Like I said before, Austin is an extremely desirable place to relocate to. It always has been for me. I have been working my butt off for years for this, and a local recession will not deter me in the least. ...and please before you lump me in with the others that are moving to the suburbs of ATX, I have visited many times, will be living centrally and both my wife and I work in the environmental field. Austin is a natural fit. I am counting down the days until our arrival. Regardless of a dip in the economy.

[thedude72]

Well,It really shouldn't surprise anyone in the least that an an Austinite would rather blame the person commenting,then actually address the issue.

[centralaustinite]

The issue? I am more than willing to address the issue of a deep L-shaped global depression with unprecedented collapse of demand, leading to painfully high unemployment, the collapse of a global currency, deflation in certain assets (real estate among them) and ultimately inflation in other assets. The trainwreck has already happened. It has been in motion for more than a year . . . I just usually don't come to city-data to talk about that . . . you'll find me obsessing over the Baltic Dry index, railroad traffic volume, the number of aircraft parked in the desert for storage, the drop in residential investment not to mention the zombie banks of Citi, BoA, etc on other blogs, just not here.

All said though, I am a grateful to be riding out this horrible economic hurricane in Austin and I do not begrudge anyone who wants to join us. Y'all never know, that newcomer might just be the one who plants the seeds of the next Google, the next Heliovolt, the next who-knows? The next thing that might just employ us all.

Keep the nurses, teachers, police officers, engineers, quality managers, logistics experts, lawyers, researchers, writers, coming!! (auto mechanics, plumbers, electricians, and yes busboys too) Bring 'em in! Smart people + tough times = innovation

People wanting to move to your area is not a problem in a global depression! We'll figure it out. Being stuck in an area that is emptying out . . . that is a problem.

But I would not minimize for a second the fact that things are going to get ugly, it is cold comfort to know that things will be much worse in other places.