How Long Will Gasoline Be King?

[StealthRabbit]

Originally Posted by jm31828

As we wait for alternatives to become truly an option, one thing to keep in mind is that as gas gets more expensive, though we'll mostly be "stuck" with gas powered cars technology will almost certainly allow us to get better fuel economy easing the pain. I can't see us NOT being able to get cars that get 70-80 MPG in the near future, and that would ease the pain if gas does get up to something like $7 or $8 per gallon. That to me will be our transition for affordable driving until real alternatives are out there.

As you probably know, Europe already has $7 or $8 per gallon. & cars that get 70-80 MPG

I'm not sure a transition for affordable driving is in the interest of those that run the USA automotive / fuel industry. BUT the USA is REALLY consumer driven, SO anything is possible if the CONSUMER gets their act together and DEMANDS and BUYS products leading to affordable driving. This is ENTIRELY possible. My employer had Plug-in parking lots, and encouraged engineering employees to build electric cars in the 1970's. We converted about 20 versions of employee's cars at a small site in Colorado.

BTW: I have a friend making a 70 mpg car. He has been stuck at 65 mpg for a few months, with total investment of $1000. MkII Scirocco with diesel conversion, Volkswagen Scirocco - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I am convinced a full belly pan, LRR tires, and switching back to a 4spd tranny will get him to consistent 70+ HWY (I have been wrong b 4...). Add 'engine off @ idle technology (ez in a diesel)'
and 'Free Wheeling' @ coast (or preferably a HHV technology for regen braking and using carbon fiber accumulators, and 70 MPG CITY is possible)

This is all with 1980's technology. Remember the Saab Sonnet 'Free Wheeling' technology... It got 50mpg + Imagine the potential only 40 yrs later!

If you want an 'OFF_THE_SHELF' 70 mpg 2 seater... The Honda INSIGHT gen I is capable of 70 mpg at 55 mph.

[Cleveland_Collector]

Originally Posted by cdcdguy

I know hybrid and electric cars continue to slowly come on board, but how many years do you think it will be before most gas cars are off the road? I am thinking most will still be driving full gas powered cars for at least another 15-20 years.

Originally Posted by Red Wolf

I would say longer than that

I would concur. People have to realize that electricity generation in mostly conventional (i.e., alternator/turbine -> copper grid). And, while the energy conversion is more efficient (an electric motor is 3-4x as efficient as an IC engine), it is still a huge task and will require a huge investment to push the energy contained in what is now a liquid fuel based distribution to the power grid. Doing a simple energy conversion, you'll find that gasoline produces about 33 kW-hr per gallon. Assuming that the US consumes about 375 million gallons per day (currently) and that an electric vehicle would increase that efficiency by a factor of 2, we would have to improve our current power infrastructure by over 50% to handle the load (2.3/4.4 TWh). Of course, this doesn't include planes, trains, trucks, and other heavy equipment.

The shift will be gradual. Petroleum based fuels will no doubt be a major part of what we use for at least the next 50 years and probably the next 150 unless there is a technological breakthrough in cold fusion, solar cell power density, fuel cells, or another technology which would result in the ability to easily localize power distribution. Then, there is the question of local infrastructure and storage. We've spent the past 125 years fostering a petroleum based economy and distribution infrastructure. Unless something completely enlightening or catastrophic occurs, don't expect that to change overnight.

[zoomzoom3]

As slow as things are coming along, 100 years minimum. By then I would think we'd see some sort of solar powered car that technically never needs charging.


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[richb]

Not anytime soon.

We really don't have to either. The technology for getting oil out of the ground is advancing far faster then battery tech.

[DELL37]

Gas based cars will be around at least another 50 yrs. most likely longer.

Hybrids are coming on strong but they won't replace gas in my lifetime.

If states start applying fees to hybrids its going to kill them off entirely and gas will be here even longer.

[texdav]

Lst estimate is at elast 50 more eyars. No alternative can even suplly 1% of energy needs mucvh less the 13K other essentail products we have to replace comng from crude oil.

[RayinAK]

Originally Posted by rational1

Gasoline (and diesel) have higher energy density than batteries so they will be favored for long-distance travel until gas becomes non-economic.

As to when that will happen- hard to say. Peak oil people say soon, but I'm not sure I believe it.

Agree with you. Also, in cold environments automobile grease and heavy lubricants put a huge drag on the motor when they are cold. A battery when cold loses a lot of its capacity, too.

[The Continental]

Electric cars came out over 100 years ago, and today we were suppose to be in flying cars. Gas will be around for years to come.

[Scottay]

My guess is about 50 years then they'll slowly get phased out just like to 2-Stroke motorcycles did. IMO most people will be taking public transit in about 100 years for their daily commuting and households will typically only have one car that only gets used here and there for longer trips outside of the city.