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This is a general question on Edmunds TMV and a Subaru WRX that I am looking at. Specs are 2015 Subaru WRX with Keyless access and Navigation. Miles are 46,333 and asking is $23900. Supposedly has all service records and no accidents, clear title, looks good from pictures. Edmunds TMV says $24860k for Dealer retail so it's right about there. I was entertaining the idea of offering $23k for it and settling for a max of 23500 if I can get it at that price.
First question is, isn't 46k miles ridiculously high for a 2015? Is it worth paying almost $24k for a Subaru with that many miles on it? What are the reliability issues with this car? My concern is that cars like this are driven so hard that they start having issues...or am I wrong and these cars are designed to be driven this way?
So, the price quote I got on a brand new 2017 WRX in a similar config was $33,800, so the car is question is priced about $10k less which represents a depreciation of about 29.5% over probably 2 year period but with about 22,000 in excess mileage (at 12k miles a year)
Second question, I see models with half the mileage asking around 27-28k, is it worth it to pay the $3-4K more and get one with 25k miles instead of almost 50k miles?
Lots of subjectivity involved in these decisions. Mileage versus age is one that you need to decide and identify what the mileage is worth to you personally. If you drive at/near the national average of 15k a year, then buying a vehicle with 25,000 more miles is almost two years of use, so the vehicle should be priced comparably lower as a result.
I have been in the auto industry in one role or another for most of my adult life and find Edmunds to be far more accurate than KBB or NADA in most cases. Regional popularity comes into play, but Edmunds seems less inflated to me than others. My personal rule (tightwad that I am) is I do not pay more than 75% of average private party for a vehicle based on Edmunds. So far, I have managed to get some great deals on vehicles with slightly higher than average miles or cars that were not popular for color/option/or rental history reasons.
30% depreciation for two years on a desirable model would be pretty decent if it were not for the high mileage. Personally, I think I would be looking for private party value as a starting point. Absolutely be sure that a dealer did not overpay or a high mileage car.
TMV is just the mean or median price of all vehicles of that model sold. It really means nothing to you. The price you pay will be determined by supply and demand, time of month/quarter/year, the dealership or individual selling the vehicle, your credit score, your desperation or lack of, your negotiating skills, your trade in, your location and a host of other factors.
Can you list the vehicle configuration more specifically? Is it a CVT Limited or manual Premium? I don't remember if nav was available with premium offhand. Mileage isn't unreasonable for a 2 year old car, although it's on the higher side. Like any used car, the condition of two identical make/model with the same miles can vary greatly.
As far as the price... Probably fair asking price for the age and miles. I'd offer less than 23k (IMO), but again, without knowing the specifics of the vehicle, it's hard to say. Does the clutch slip? How is it cosmetically? Is the interior nice and clean? Does it have newer tires? What are the brakes like? Any indication as to who owned it? If you are looking at the car in person, snoop through the bluetooth contacts and navigation destinations, which most people never delete. You can learn a lot about the previous owner and their travel habits with those systems.
The only real concern I would have with a WRX or like vehicle is that it was modified, thrashed, then un-modded and traded in. The powertrain warranty still gives you almost another 14k miles to determine whether or not you want to hang on to the car for longer. So you do have a while to evaluate whether you want to hang on to it. The WRX is a well built vehicle designed for spirited driving, and stands up to a lot as long as it wasn't abused or neglected. I don't know much about the CVT in the WRX.
I'll skip over the pricing part of the question. I buy new and own cars until they've lost most of their value so I've never bought or sold a 2 year old car.
I've had lots of years where I racked up 30,000+ miles per year. A 40 mile each way commute is 20,000 miles. Tons of people have that much commute. 46,333 miles on a car bought two years ago isn't a big deal. The good thing about a late model high mileage car is it's very likely most of those miles were highway commuting miles. Those are "good" miles that don't cause much wear & tear on the car. It doesn't mean the previous owner didn't beat on the car when they weren't highway commuting. It's a WRX. It's the demographic. It's very likely to have been driven harder than some suburban grocery getter.
I have a 2015 6-cylinder Outback with the same CVT if the WRX came with a CVT. It's the first time Subaru put a CVT in a 250+ hp car so there isn't a heck of a lot of long term reliability data on that particular transmission. Subaru has probably only shipped 50,000 of those transmissions.
I'd figure any WRX on a used car lot would come with the Millennial Antitheft Device (manual transmission).
Unfortunately, K374, all reporting sources are merely guidelines. Have you researched other reporting sources?
The hefty mileage would scare me, especially on a foreign car. I would be curious as to why the original owner drove the vehicle about 1,000 miles a week and then "tossed" it like a used paper towel.
I'm actually in Southern California and would have to drive out to Las Vegas if interested. Unfortunately there are no WRX Limited models in my area that are even remotely priced at a reasonable level, for instance there is one 2015 that has 25k miles and asking $31k when a brand new 2017 is $33k WTF? And the dealers here refuse to budge.
Perhaps I should offer 22k. I am a cash buyer and not desperate, looking for a great deal to have to go to Las Vegas to get it.
OP, you will have all kinds of theories on what's accurate or not. The thing that is accurate is buyer desire to pay X amount of $$ for a vehicle sold and seller consent to sell it for that amount. Period, end of sentence. I bought cars for way below KBB or any other "value". I sold cars for way above any of them either. My son just sold a Land Rover for almost double of its KBB value.
So who gives.
Car prices vary by location. Also, the kind of car that is popular varies by location. Example: Subarus are more popular in snowy locations than in the south, where many cities don't even have Subaru dealerships. You wouldn't get much for a used Subaru in those cities.
Some vehicles will have more mileage. Example: A used Prius is likely to have a lot of mileage, 'cause people buy those cars because they drive a lot of miles. Cars used by dudes with AWD to go on excursions will likely have more miles than a Lexus sedan, which are mainly owned by mature people.
The way you know how much it's worth is to look at lots and lots of ads, and get a general idea of the going prices for those models. You might even start a spreadsheet, listing each car with options and mileage and color and asking price.
The color matters. An orange car will sell for less than a white or black car.
The popularity of a car matters. If a car is popular, it will sell for more than its blue book value. Supply and demand.
I read a short book on car buying. One thing he stressed was that buying used cars is more difficult than buying new because every used car is unique. There is no other car exactly like it. Whereas, new cars are alike, if it's the same model and such. You also get better deals in certain months, and on certain days within a month, because of sales quotas that have to be met or the need to get rid of inventory.
So it's not a science. If you set a price you want to pay, you might very well get that, if you stick to your guns and are willing to look a lot and wait. And maybe even travel to a neighboring town.
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