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At age 36 the wheels could fall off anytime from here on out (he will have a batting average less than his career average this year, but still above .300 of course), but man he's an awesome player. Had he started his career in the Major Leagues instead of playing in Japan, Pete Rose would soon no longer be the Hit King.
He's 772 hits shy of 3000 right now which means 4 more years averaging 193 hit per season, a very good possibility for this guy even as he approaches 40.
Had he been in the major leagues the whole time and then also played for the Yankees, he would be thought of as perhaps one of the best ever to play.
At age 36 the wheels could fall off anytime from here on out (he will have a batting average less than his career average this year, but still above .300 of course), but man he's an awesome player. Had he started his career in the Major Leagues instead of playing in Japan, Pete Rose would soon no longer be the Hit King.
He's 772 hits shy of 3000 right now which means 4 more years averaging 193 hit per season, a very good possibility for this guy even as he approaches 40.
Had he been in the major leagues the whole time and then also played for the Yankees, he would be thought of as perhaps one of the best ever to play.
Ichiro has been remarkably consistent. As these graphs will show.
Not a lot of variation in those green lines. There does seem to be a slight trending up in his strikeout rate the last three years, which could be worrisome, but, that trend is exaggerated by his low strikeout rate in 08. Strikeout rate is critical for batting average because batting average is dependent on balls in play. A strikeout is an out with no ball in play. Note the similarity between Ichiro's batting average and his BABIP graphs.
A graph of Ichiro's batted ball profile
Ground Balls, fly balls, line drives.
Ichiro hits an insanely high amount of Ground balls, and an insanely low amount of fly balls compared to most hitters.
As I've mentioned in other threads the BABIP for the the three types of batted balls are roughly:
Ground balls = .240, Fly Balls = .140, Line Drives = .750
Since ground balls have a higher BABIP than flyballs, Ichiro helps his batting average by avoiding fly balls in favor of ground balls.
Ichiro, also has an extremely high BABIP on groundballs-.311 for his career. This is because he is extremely fast and gets an insane amount of infield hits by slapping the ball to the left side and outrunning the throw to first.
Notice 2004 in all of the above graphs. 2004 is the year that Ichiro hit .372 and broke the major league hits record by recording 262 hits.
Ichiro's K rate was slightly lower than his norm, meaning he put more balls in play.
Ichiro's BABIP was the highest of his career. Ichiro put more balls in play, and more of them fell in for hits.
Ichiro's groundball rate spiked to over 60% and his flyball rate dipped to under 20%. Almost unheard of numbers.
Everything was perfect for Ichiro to get a ton of hits. Low strike outs, lots of ground balls and few fly balls.
Is Ichiro starting to decline? It's hard to see it. A slight uptick in strikeouts. Line drives have been trending down since 2005 but nothing too apparent. As long as Ichiro is fast he'll keep getting hits. He'll have to slow down (literally) eventually, but I'll be rooting for him to get to 3000.
still one of the most underrated players in the MLB because he plays in Seattle
No one who has attracted as much attention as Ichiro! may be properly viewed as underrated.
Ichiro! has a career OPS of .806. Other players with an 806 career OPS include:
Lyle Overbay
Andre Dawson
Robin Ventura
Dick Stuart
Bill White
Players within a point either way include:
Matt Williams
Homerun Baker
Mike Lowell
Hal McRae
Greg Vaughn
Smokey Burgess
Bill Madlock
On the adjusted OPS+ list, Ichiro! is tied for 445th place all time with players such as:
Ron Fairly
Del Ennis
Carlton Fisk
Howard Johnson
Wally Joyner
Gary Mathews
Gary Roenicke
Ted Simmons
Dick Stuart
and active players:
Dan Uggla
Robinson Cano
On the list of the best career adjusted batting runs, Ichiro! has the 319th slot all to himself with 167. Among those who had between 165 and 170 career adjusted batting runs, you'll find:
Oscar Gamble
Willie Horton
Mickie Tettleton
Ken Boyer
Jason Thompson
Steve Garvey
Richie Hebner
and active players:
Chase Utley
Troy Glaus
Jason Bay
Utley and Bay are both 31 years old and will continue to compile. Ichiro! is 36.
In career win probability added, Ichiro's 18.17 zooms him up to the 196th spot all time.
#195 is Cliff Johnson
#197 is Kevin McReynolds
#193 is Jason Thompson
#194 is Tim Salmon
#198 is Pat Burrell
# 155 is Gene Tenace
# 127 is Amos Otis
# 119 is Toby Harah
Those guys, they are Ichiro's! peers. Are they underrated?
*BABIP rates to be fluctuate, but both Gwynn and Ichiro have .350ish BABIPS. Well above league average
According to Baseball-Reference Tony Gwynn:
hit ground balls 49.6% of the time with a.260 BABIP
hit line drives 23.5% of the time with a .735 BABIP
hit fly balls 26.5% of the time with a .183 BABIP
The same numbers for Ichiro
ground balls: 55.4% .305 BABIP
line drives: 21.3% .708 BABIP
fly balls: 21.7% .162 BABIP
Career batting average/BABIP
Ichiro: .331/.357
Gwynn: .338/.341
Gwynn and Ichiro went about posting their high batting averages and high number of hits in similar, but not exactly the same way.
Both hitters limited strikeouts. You can't have a high batting average with a lot of strike outs. If you never strike out your potential batting average is 1.000. If you always strike out your potential batting average is .000. Easy enough to understand.
I've tried a few different ways to explain this, but I think an example will work best. Let's consider 600 at bats for each player.
First, deduct the amount of outs made on strike outs.
Ichiro K%=10.1 10.1% * 600 = 60.6 outs made by striking out. 539.4 at bats remain
Gwynn K%=4.7 4.7 * 600 = 28.2 outs made by striking out. 571.8 at bats remain
First, deduct the amount of outs made on strike outs.
Ichiro K%=10.1 10.1% * 600 = 60.6 outs made by striking out. 539.4 at bats remain
Gwynn K%=4.7 4.7 * 600 = 28.2 outs made by striking out. 571.8 at bats remain
Gwynn got hits by never striking out
Ichiro gets hits by rarely striking out, hitting a lot of ground balls, and being very fast
Really interesting comparison, thanks. When determining overall value, wouldn't a line drive hit be slightly more valueable than a ground ball hit, as I assume the chances for extra bases is greater with a line drive? With that said, their total hits over 600 at bats is only 4.3 total hits, but the value of those hits have to favor Gwynn, I'd assume?
I thought Ichiro didn't strike out that much, Gwynns K/per AB ratio is unreal.
Really interesting comparison, thanks. When determining overall value, wouldn't a line drive hit be slightly more valueable than a ground ball hit, as I assume the chances for extra bases is greater with a line drive? With that said, their total hits over 600 at bats is only 4.3 total hits, but the value of those hits have to favor Gwynn, I'd assume?
You're exactly right.
Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) determines the relative values of each type of hit (and walks, hit by pitch, and reached on errors) using the formula
(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA
*note that 2Bs, 3Bs, and HR's have higher multipliers than singles
Gwynn's is a tick higher for exactly the reasons you mention. Ichiro gets more singles and infield hits. Gwynn, hitting more line drives and fly balls, gets more extra base hits.
EDIT: Ichiro's wOBA on:
ground balls: .284
fly balls: .258
line drives: .693
Quote:
I thought Ichiro didn't strike out that much, Gwynns K/per AB ratio is unreal.
Indeed!
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