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In no universe is Gonzalez having as good a season as Bautista. Well, in one universe he probably is. The universe where the MVP voters reside.
In some circumstances, I'd be ok with Gonzalez getting the nod over Bautista. Except they play in the same division and play the same teams. If anything, Bautista has to face Boston pitching whereas Gonzalez does not.
But, that statistical difference is very minor simply because both team's pitching is sub-par anyway.
The AL Cy Young race appears to have been reduced to a contest between Weaver and Verlander, with the latter moving ahead in recent weeks. Halladay and Kershaw are still neck and neck for the NL award.
In the NL MVP race, Ryan Braun has risen from also in the competition to strong contender. He tops the NL in OPS at the moment. Kemp and Holiday have slipped a bit. Berkman and Fielder remain strong, with the latter having the advantage of playing for a division leading team.
Defending NL MVP Joey Votto is making some late season noise, but in that the Reds aren't winning this year, he would need to really explode to get sufficient support. And Albert Pujols has also resurected himself as a candidate, but at the moment he still would probably finish third if the vote was just for the Cardinals MVP.
Adrian Gonzalez has slid down a bit with his run for the AL MVP, and Curtis Granderson has inserted himself into the picture. Jose Bautista is still the outstanding player, but if not being on a contender counts, the odds currently favor Miguel Cabrera. And Cabrera is now receiving some competition from teammate Jhonny Peralta who jhas come on strong and fills that "up the middle player on contender" model which some voters have often favored.
Granderson should be a serious MVP candidate. As of today, he is first in runs, triples, total bases, XBH's and RBI's, second in HR's and SLG, eighth in walks, ninth in SB's, twelfth in OBP, nineteenth in hits and thirtieth in BA.
I'm a baseball fan whose knowledge of stats is limited to the standard ones. Let me get WAR straight.
The Yankees with Granderson have 4.8 Wins Above what they'd have with a Replacement player they could pick up off waivers or bring up from AAA ? Having CC means having 4.9 Wins Above Replacement player ?
If I have this right, I wonder what Girardi thinks of WAR.
I'm a baseball fan whose knowledge of stats is limited to the standard ones. Let me get WAR straight.
The Yankees with Granderson have 4.8 Wins Above what they'd have with a Replacement player they could pick up off waivers or bring up from AAA ? Having CC means having 4.9 Wins Above Replacement player ?
If I have this right, I wonder what Girardi thinks of WAR.
That's about the size of it, although I'm unfamiliar with Giradi's specific thoughts on the subject.
Here is an explanation of what constitutes a replacement player and why employing replacement level is more utilitarian than simply using league averages as the comparative starting point.
While advanced metrics radiate an aura of precision, we may keep in mind that at bottom, they are actually value philosophy. Is the greatest weight lifter in the world the one who can lift the heaviest weight, or is it the one who can lift the most relative to his own weight? Which is more impressive, the 250 pound guy who lifts 500 pounds, or the 150 pound guy who can lift 425 pounds? That question does not have a precise answer, merely points of view.
And that is what we are dealing with with concepts like WAR, the introduction of relativity to our comparative process.
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