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The graphs are hard to read because three of the five colors being used, the black and the two shades of dark blue, are indistinguishable from one another, at least they are to me.
The odds they have posted are happily readable and they strongly suggest that everything is pretty much over.
Among teams not leading a division or currently having a wild card lead, the best chance being given is for the Angels and that is only a 22.8 % shot. Tampa Bay is at 16.1 %, the Twins are at 14 %.
In the NL it is worse, Washington is given a 12 % shot at the division, just a 0.9 % shot at the wild card, and the Giants are at 2.1% for the wild card.
Call me a homer but I still see a Nats run. Their the only team that is more than 5 games back in the Wildcard/division that I'd give more than a 20% chance of making the playoffs.
I expect their winning % to pick up, but most likely just keep pace the rest of the way with NYM. Both have easy schedules, with Nats Cards series offset by NYM-NYY series. Mets have 17 left against last place teams.
I expect their winning % to pick up, but most likely just keep pace the rest of the way with NYM. Both have easy schedules, with Nats Cards series offset by NYM-NYY series. Mets have 17 left against last place teams.
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What I forgot to say in that last message is the late run is probably like 2013 where they won enough games the first half of the month (remember 2013 was another atrocious year in the NL Least), and wildcard contenders (since the Braves were like 20 games up in the East at that point. It's the complete opposite of this year; 2013 WC was the only way in; 2015 division is the only way in) like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh lost just enough to pique my interest for the last 10 games or say, then they lost 2 of 4 on their last home stand to the Marlins who finished with like 105 losses that season then went to St. Louis and got swept which ended their season. Their playing in St. Louis a little earlier this year but that series could very well be the proverbial nail-in-the-coffin for the Nats 2015 season and Williams tenure as manager.
Nats have 37 games left I say they have to go AT MINIMUM 29-8 with at least 2 wins vs. St. Louis and at least 5 vs. the Mets. IF the Nats do end up 29-8 in the last 37, that'll leave the Nats at 92-70. In order for the Mets to hit that water mark they only have to go 22-14. Not looking too good. As it is they can't afford any more then 1 more loss in these last 4 home games and if they get swept in St. Louis next week you can stick a fork in 'em because they'll be done.
Given Mets schedule, I suspect road rec will approach .500, as they are now 28-35. (.5 ahead of Nats road rec now). This has been an amazing 4 weeks! The bounceback impresses me; when leading and opponents score, Mets are scoring next inning regularly. D' Arnaud hit 8th last night! What other team would bat him 8th in the NL?
There are eleven teams in contention for ten post season slots. There are actually only two questions to be settled. 1) Will Toronto or NY be the division winner or wild card? 2) Among the Astros, Rangers and Twins, which one won't be there in October?
Looking at the Giants remaining schedule I note that SF does not play any of the five teams mentioned above, thus none of their remaining 23 games will be relevant to any pennant race.
The A's on the other hand will be trying to complete a sweep of the Astros tonight, after which they go to Arlington for three with the Rangers. They have three more with Houston September 18-20, and follow that by hosting Texas for three, 22nd-24th. Thus ten of their remaining 23 games are very much relevant.
For some reason, the schedule has the A's playing the Giants in Oakland for the next to last series of the year. Those two have never played this late in a season before. And now it will be a who cares yawner.
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