Sorry for some reason I never saw this topic before
. As a Nats fan, here's my two cents:
The Nats will definitely give Harper the qualifying offer, no doubt about that. Whether he accepts it or not comes down to a couple of things:
1) How he finishes the year. If his batting average is still around .230 but he's cooled down on his HR & walk totals he'll take the QO, in hopes of a bounce back next year. If his batting average is still hovering below .250 at seasons end, but he leads the majors in walks and has 40+ home runs he'll get a lot more than $18 million which will be around what the QO offer will be.
2) How the team does the rest of the way. Do they miss the playoffs and finish under .500?? Gone!
Do they miss the playoffs but have a good finish after being left for dead?? Debatable whether he stays or not.
Do they make the playoffs and lose in the first round again?? Gone for sure!
Do they make the playoffs, make it out the NLDS?? I could see him staying since the 2019 core will still be pretty good (Stasburg, Scherzer, full seasons of Robles, Soto, Turner, Rendon for 1 last year) and hoping a better year from him offensively gets them the next step and him a better contract.
Right now I'd put the odds on him going vs. staying 90% to 10%, with the only scenario I could see him realistically staying is the last one (make the playoffs & win a round or 2), everything else he's likely gone. Plus, with Rendon a free agent after 2019 this team is either resigning Harper or Rendon, definitely not both, and I'd much rather have them sign Rendon, not only because he plays a more premium position, but because he will cost less too.
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