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Old 02-16-2010, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Sacramento
14,044 posts, read 27,219,039 times
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http://www.baseballprojection.com/20...ndings2010.htm

For the four teams I'm most familiar with, I have some different perspectives.

They show the Indians at 81-81, I suspect they will likely be more like 65-97.

Phillies - 87-75, I think more like 95-67

Giants - 76-86, I think more like 90-72

A's - 81-81, seems about right to me
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Old 02-16-2010, 10:36 AM
 
2,500 posts, read 2,929,488 times
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Every year the Phillies get short-changed in these predictions. It's amazing that many people still don't think they're an elite team. They have their shortcomings like every team, but come on... Two straight pennants, one of which resulted in a world championship. The Phillies are the Rodney Dangerfield of Major League Baseball. No respect.
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Old 02-16-2010, 11:22 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,164 posts, read 15,144,066 times
Reputation: 2534
Quote:
Originally Posted by BringTheContent View Post
Every year the Phillies get short-changed in these predictions. It's amazing that many people still don't think they're an elite team. They have their shortcomings like every team, but come on... Two straight pennants, one of which resulted in a world championship. The Phillies are the Rodney Dangerfield of Major League Baseball. No respect.
Better then my team which is as much loved as hated.Phillies definitely don't get respect but are a quality team.As for any scientific predictions, no matter if my Yankees are first or last I still think there is no way with human beings that you can predict specific records;only hypothesis'.
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Old 02-16-2010, 11:35 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,304,138 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Better then my team which is as much loved as hated.Phillies definitely don't get respect but are a quality team.As for any scientific predictions, no matter if my Yankees are first or last I still think there is no way with human beings that you can predict specific records;only hypothesis'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Of Projections and Predictions | FanGraphs Baseball
Quote:
However, we need to make a distinction: projections are not predictions. Projections are information about what we think we currently know, while predictions are speculation about things that we probably cannot know.
This may sound like semantics, but there is an important difference here, and it’s often lost in the way projections are discussed. Too often, projections are treated as predictions of the future. You’ll see people say things like “CAIRO thinks the Blue Jays are going to only win 67 games this year,” for instance.
But that’s not really true. CAIRO thinks that the Blue Jays are on course to win 67 games, and if they don’t do something about it between now and the end of the season, that is their likely destination. But, like a map, the entire point of a projection is to inform the the user so that he can then alter the course if he so desires.
.
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Old 02-16-2010, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,211 posts, read 9,431,660 times
Reputation: 1895
Check out last year's projected standings....

Giants..77-85 finished 88-74

Dodgers..82-80 finished 95-67

Rockies..78-84 finished 92-70

2009 CHONE Projected Standings

That's a combined 38 games off just on those 3 NL West teams!!

Of course, it wouldn't be the first time that someone underestimated the NL West..
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Old 02-16-2010, 12:28 PM
 
2,500 posts, read 2,929,488 times
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Last year's projection for the AL Central...

Indians 90-72
Tigers 85-77
Twins 79-83
White Sox 73-89
Royals 72-90

Actual Standings for the AL Central...

Twins 87-76
Tigers 86-77
White Sox 79-83
Indians 65-97
Royals 65-97

If you're a Twins fan, of course you were much happier with the way the season played out than how it was projected here.

If you're an Indians fan, you can stare at the projection and try to pretend it was their actual record.

If you're a Royals fan, you deserve some credit just for sticking with them in recent years, and they were considerably better than projected.

They did pretty much nail down the Tigers' season only missing by one game and minus the game 163 that nobody would have predicted.

The moral of the story: These projections are always fun to look at and discuss, but there's a reason why these games are played on the field and not on someone's laptop.
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Old 02-16-2010, 12:38 PM
 
Location: Cook County
5,289 posts, read 7,488,861 times
Reputation: 3105
Quote:
Originally Posted by BringTheContent View Post
Every year the Phillies get short-changed in these predictions. It's amazing that many people still don't think they're an elite team. They have their shortcomings like every team, but come on... Two straight pennants, one of which resulted in a world championship. The Phillies are the Rodney Dangerfield of Major League Baseball. No respect.
Projections should lack the bias you are suggesting here--which is why some feel they have value. It may not be bias, but false methods to obtain their conclusions--and that would account for the discrepency.
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Old 02-16-2010, 03:26 PM
 
2,500 posts, read 2,929,488 times
Reputation: 902
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
Projections should lack the bias you are suggesting here--which is why some feel they have value. It may not be bias, but false methods to obtain their conclusions--and that would account for the discrepency.
I guess I was referencing the overall lack of respect the team seems to get, and the OP making reference to the projected finish vs. what he felt they would do in 2010. Maybe it wasn't the right thread for me to bring that up, but I rarely do see anything that can be considered pro-Phillies in terms of projections or opinions. And I'm not a Phillies fan. I just love the game, and I feel like at this point in time the Phillies are a dominating force in the National League. They just don't seem to get the respect that they deserve.
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