Huntsville Replaces Mobile as Second Largest Metro on Pace to Challenge Birmingham

[bosshawk]

Originally Posted by Tourian

AFAIK reverse commutes count too. It probably won't ever be part of the MSA, but I could see it joining the CSA by 2018 or 2020. Any kind of favorable patterns between it and Bibb, Walker or Jefferson is all it would take.




I think they would have to decommission Cullman's micropolitan area before that could happen, so probably unlikely too.

Here are the official rules: About Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas - People and Households - U.S. Census Bureau

Tuscaloosa is already part of the CSA, has been for a while.

It seems there is definitely precedent for a metropolitan area absorbing a micropolitan area as long as the micro area then meets the qualifications to be included in the metro area.

[Tourian]

Originally Posted by bosshawk

Here are the official rules: About Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas - People and Households - U.S. Census Bureau

Tuscaloosa is already part of the CSA, has been for a while.

It seems there is definitely precedent for a metropolitan area absorbing a micropolitan area as long as the micro area then meets the qualifications to be included in the metro area.

Wait...what? When did Tuscaloosa join Birmingham's CSA?


The last time I looked it up I found a link I posted in another thread where it explained how Baldwin Co. (Fairhope-Daphne-Foley) micropolitan is now part of MObile's CSA. And how Alexander City micro broke from Montgomery to join Birmingham's...but nothing about Tuscaloosa. Cool.


Yeah, here it is. I didn't think they would revise it again for another 2-3 years. Or maybe you meant Tallapoosa co?
http://www.census.gov/population/metro/data/omb.html

[Lumberjack Lisa]

I have to say this thread and others are hilarious. You seem to be intelligent people bantering like school girls. So I'll join in. Metro to T town or Cullman. Still laughing. And still laughing.

I've traveled the world and love Alabama. From north to south it is an incredible, diverse state. Huntsville is the rising star. Mobile is pure awesome. Birmingham is everything I expect Alabama to be (in a great way).

Let's get positive here folks. #RollTide

[bosshawk]

Originally Posted by Tourian

Wait...what? When did Tuscaloosa join Birmingham's CSA?


The last time I looked it up I found a link I posted in another thread where it explained how Baldwin Co. (Fairhope-Daphne-Foley) micropolitan is now part of MObile's CSA. And how Alexander City micro broke from Montgomery to join Birmingham's...but nothing about Tuscaloosa. Cool.


Yeah, here it is. I didn't think they would revise it again for another 2-3 years. Or maybe you meant Tallapoosa co?
Metropolitan and Micropolitan - Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Bulletins - People and Households - U.S. Census Bureau

I apologize, you are right. I went crazy for a second and confused CSA with market DMA.

[preguntas]

Originally Posted by bosshawk

Seems liek it will never happen. There is too much job growth in Tuscaloosa, and already many people who reverse commute to Mercedes and suppliers from Jeff Co. Coupled with very little job growth on the western side of town and little population in east Tuscaloosa county and it just makes it very unlikely.

I would see Cullman getting added to the MSA before Tuscaloosa. Per census data only about 1/3 more people commute from Tuscaloosa to Jefferson than vice versa.

It is measured in both directions as one figure( around 22% of total work force) The University System impacts this very much as well.. The jobs at Mercedes may be four miles over the county line, but the thousands of houses that most of the workers bought are in Jefferson. This mirrors what happened at the Honda plant. The census bureau predicted it would happen in 2020 or the next five year census. It is taking longer in Tuscaloosa because it is a much more populace county with a fairly large economy. But in the end it will be similar to Greenville / Spartanburg S.C. except that Greenville is not as strong a central county as Jefferson.


Cullman has almost an equal migration of jobs with Blount and Jefferson which is why it came in so soon. Talladega has a lot of out migration to St. Clair county, which points to the fact that the migration only has to occur with one of the seven counties that make up the metro area. It does not have to occur with Jefferson, although it obviously does impact the picture with some of the largest employers in the state.
Cullman has been part of the CMSA for quite a few years. To show how that works, when Talladega County was brought in during the last census it brought Coosa County in with it since they formed a micropolitan unit. I believe that Tuscaloosa would be bringing in an additional three counties.


By the way, as far as the Fed goes, MSA's are all but irrelevant. They use to study neighborhoods within cities, now they compare counties within CMSA's.