Cool News (Birmingham, Mobile, Huntsville: real estate market, retired, commuting)

[OldBankhead]

Originally Posted by MinivanDriver

Got a link to that?

https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...20-alldata.csv

Its a big ole nasty spreadsheet. Get ready to widen a couple of columns and delete/ignore a whole bunch more. And the numbers I got came from the column marked "2020 Estimate"

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by OldBankhead

https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...20-alldata.csv

Its a big ole nasty spreadsheet. Get ready to widen a couple of columns and delete/ignore a whole bunch more. And the numbers I got came from the column marked "2020 Estimate"

Oh, good grief. That thing defies easy analysis.

[TimCity2000]

Originally Posted by bfmx1

Also, that can't be the whole metro minus Walker county. That would be like losing 200k-ish people and I doubt that's the case.

not sure i follow. wasn't the metro area previously around 1.15 million? minus 60K would leave about 1.09 million which is what the estimate is. where are you getting 200K?

also, these are continuations of the previous estimates. not a reflection of the census count (which showed a statewide undercount of about 100K). so it's possible this goes up a tad.

[Surge0001]

I wouldn't bother looking at them, I feel that Birmingham (or atleast the metro) is one of the areas that were shorthanded among the 100k discrepancy

[RocketDawg]

[quote=bfmx1;60972372]A newly released estimate? I thought numbers weren't coming out for a few weeks.

Also, that can't be the whole metro minus Walker county. That would be like losing 200k-ish people and I doubt that's the case.[/QUOTE]

I think you must be thinking of the CSA, which is a couple hundred thousand more than the MSA.

Actually, if you care to go through all that, you can find the CSA numbers toward the end of one of the files. Check here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...cal-areas.html

There really isn't much of a format, so you'll probably get a good headache trying to decipher. They're in alphabetical order, so once you get the hang of it it's not quite so bad.

Remember that these are estimates with a July 2020 data date. They're not real census numbers and the real census numbers for the state were about 100K higher than the estimates released in December. No idea where those extra folks reside.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by bfmx1

A newly released estimate? I thought numbers weren't coming out for a few weeks.

Also, that can't be the whole metro minus Walker county. That would be like losing 200k-ish people and I doubt that's the case.

Metro, micro, and CSA estimates released today, May 4 along with individual counties that make up those areas. Data date is July 1 ,2020. Rural counties not included. City estimates will be released May 27. The real census data will be released this fall, which means that the numbers will be a year and a half old by the time we see them. No idea why it takes so long, other than they include a lot of data other than just population.

[bfmx1]

Originally Posted by MinivanDriver

Oh, good grief. That thing defies easy analysis.

Can't attach the spreadsheet but it's fun to play with. Here's a quick something I threw together to allocate the 100k to each metro based on size.

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by bfmx1

It was fun, but I like stuff like that.. Here's an ugly version.. Can't attach the excel file from work computer.

NAME CENSUS2010POP POPESTIMATE2020 DIFF
Anniston-Oxford, AL 118,572 113,469 (5,103)
Auburn-Opelika, AL 140,247 166,831 26,584
Birmingham-Hoover, AL 1,061,024 1,091,921 30,897
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL 182,265 229,287 47,022
Decatur, AL 153,829 152,740 (1,089)
Dothan, AL 145,639 150,214 4,575
Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL 147,137 148,779 1,642
Gadsden, AL 104,430 102,371 (2,059)
Huntsville, AL 417,593 481,681 64,088
Mobile, AL 430,573 428,692 (1,881)
Montgomery, AL 374,536 372,583 (1,953)
Tuscaloosa, AL 239,207 253,211 14,004

Thanks for that. Don't know why, given the billions we spend on the Census, that the product has to be that opaque.

Digesting this, it's no surprise that Huntsville has had a good decade of growth. Birmingham's growth is meh. But I would bet dollars to donuts that most of its momentum has been in the past three years. If so, the 2030 Census will prove markedly different.

Montgomery, no surprise, is in the doldrums.

Mobile's decline, however, is a surprise. They've had some wins lately.

Tuscaloosa seems to be benefiting from the aggressive expansion of UofA.

Auburn, to me, is the Wow here. An 18% pop. Their economic development program has really been successful.

Decatur is a bit of a headscratcher. I would have thought it would benefit from being close to Huntsville.

Anniston, Gadsden need a fix. And fast. Florence? I just don't know enough about them to have an opinion. They've always been this weird anomaly tucked away in the NW corner of the state.

To me, I think it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years. Just for fun, I'd like to peer into the crystal ball and make some WAGs.

I don't expect much from Montgomery. It will languish as the remedial reading class of Alabama's larger cities. Those guys should get down on their knees and sacrifice a goat to Hyundai for keeping that city alive with both the plant and its constellation of suppliers.

Mobile should see a modest uptick as their port and distribution chops continue to grow.

Huntsville should maintain strong growth. BUT I would worry if a) SpaceX, et al, really continue their inroads into space flight and b) if there is a downgrade of world tensions, thereby not requiring as robust a military (Don't think that will happen, but it's always a question).

Birmingham is sailing into the decade with a lot of momentum. Ten years ago, the city was absolutely ravaged by the banking meltdown. As the Covid Recession closes out, Birmingham actually has fared very well compared to other large metro areas in the country in just about every metric. A large part of that is that the past ten years have seen a continued diversification of the economy with distribution, transportation, and tech. Not to mention, Birmingham making huge strides in terms of the kind of quality of life that attracts the new economy kind of worker. To me, however, the big story that could happen over the next decade is the potential resurgence of manufacturing.

If geopolitical guys such as Zeihan and Friedman are indeed correct, we're about to see a large reshoring effort as corporations rethink 9,000-mile long supply chains. A lot will shift to Mexico, but a significant portion will return to the United States. Aside from our relationship with China falling off a cliff, the declining demographics of China are driving up labor costs, the only reason companies were manufacturing there in the first place. If Zeihan, et al, are correct, Birmingham's industrial roots make us one of the beneficiaries.

Of course, a lot has to go right. We have to made steady, consistent efforts to train our labor force to accommodate those opportunities. And we need the State of Alabama to not get in our way. But, compared to where we were in 2010, I'm pretty bullish on where Birmingham stands at at the moment.

[bfmx1]

Originally Posted by MinivanDriver

Thanks for that. Don't know why, given the billions we spend on the Census, that the product has to be that opaque.

Digesting this, it's no surprise that Huntsville has had a good decade of growth. Birmingham's growth is meh. But I would bet dollars to donuts that most of its momentum has been in the past three years. If so, the 2030 Census will prove markedly different.

Montgomery, no surprise, is in the doldrums.

Mobile's decline, however, is a surprise. They've had some wins lately.

Tuscaloosa seems to be benefiting from the aggressive expansion of UofA.

Auburn, to me, is the Wow here. An 18% pop. Their economic development program has really been successful.

Decatur is a bit of a headscratcher. I would have thought it would benefit from being close to Huntsville.

Anniston, Gadsden need a fix. And fast. Florence? I just don't know enough about them to have an opinion. They've always been this weird anomaly tucked away in the NW corner of the state.

To me, I think it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years. Just for fun, I'd like to peer into the crystal ball and make some WAGs.

I don't expect much from Montgomery. It will languish as the remedial reading class of Alabama's larger cities. Those guys should get down on their knees and sacrifice a goat to Hyundai for keeping that city alive with both the plant and its constellation of suppliers.

Mobile should see a modest uptick as their port and distribution chops continue to grow.

Huntsville should maintain strong growth. BUT I would worry if a) SpaceX, et al, really continue their inroads into space flight and b) if there is a downgrade of world tensions, thereby not requiring as robust a military (Don't think that will happen, but it's always a question).

Birmingham is sailing into the decade with a lot of momentum. Ten years ago, the city was absolutely ravaged by the banking meltdown. As the Covid Recession closes out, Birmingham actually has fared very well compared to other large metro areas in the country in just about every metric. A large part of that is that the past ten years have seen a continued diversification of the economy with distribution, transportation, and tech. Not to mention, Birmingham making huge strides in terms of the kind of quality of life that attracts the new economy kind of worker. To me, however, the big story that could happen over the next decade is the potential resurgence of manufacturing.

If geopolitical guys such as Zeihan and Friedman are indeed correct, we're about to see a large reshoring effort as corporations rethink 9,000-mile long supply chains. A lot will shift to Mexico, but a significant portion will return to the United States. Aside from our relationship with China falling off a cliff, the declining demographics of China are driving up labor costs, the only reason companies were manufacturing there in the first place. If Zeihan, et al, are correct, Birmingham's industrial roots make us one of the beneficiaries.

Of course, a lot has to go right. We have to made steady, consistent efforts to train our labor force to accommodate those opportunities. And we need the State of Alabama to not get in our way. But, compared to where we were in 2010, I'm pretty bullish on where Birmingham stands at at the moment.

Dont you think Mobile's woe's are because everyone's moving to Daphne and Fairhope across the bay? Their uptick is amazing given their size, so I have to think that Mobile is losing big time to their little brother next door.

[bhamblazer]

Originally Posted by bfmx1

Dont you think Mobile's woe's are because everyone's moving to Daphne and Fairhope across the bay? Their uptick is amazing given their size, so I have to think that Mobile is losing big time to their little brother next door.

Definitely. Baldwin County is exploding.