How did Boston's Population Plateau According to the Census? (Cambridge: sales, real estate)

[masssachoicetts]

So I am browsing through some articles and some recent BDPA meetings. I notice that in 2020, the BPDA approved over 10,100 units of residence, up from 4,900 in 2019. Both very high. SO far in 2021 (Only 3 BPDA meetings as of yet...) and there have been over 5,000 units of residence approved including Charlestown project and the Edison Plant being the big two. There were 4,600 residents approved for construction in 2018, but lets keep that out. That was also up from 3,700 approved in 2017, but down from a little over 4,000 in 2016.

If we consider the average unit in the City of Boston has 2.1 residents/unit, we can predict that with the units approved from 2018-2021* (So far) there will be an additional 49,770 residents through three years of approvals (23,700*2.1). Lets be conservative and say 1.8 residents per unit, since the trend is smaller. That still brings us up by 42,000 people over the course of three years of approvals coming online. If we take that same equation and apply it to all units approved from 2015-2021 (So far),we would get close to 70,000 residents moving into the city of Boston. (1.8 residents * 38,000 units approved).

However, Im seeing a trend. With the number of units propsed/approved/constructed, it seems that the population is not increasing to the beat of construction/approvals. Even with adding about 4,000 units per year, the Boston population should be increasing by a healthy 7,500-9,000 per year. With the City of Boston adding this huge wave of housing by 2025, will we continue to see our population plateau as depicted below? Something is missing. With the amount of housing we have been adding+will be adding, it seems like the city population is being severely uundercounted. Is the recent downward trend/crawl in population due to a correction?

What is your take on this. Because its not adding up. With the amount of approvals we have seen from 2018-2021*, we should be at about 750,000 people by 2025 when most of these units are set to be finished (Bar a few in Charlestown). How are we going to get there? Is there some mass exodus in a part of Boston im unaware of because im showing neighborhoods like Mattapan, Dorchester and Roxbury are flat/slightly growing.


Population Growth 2010-2019*
2010: 621,048
2011: 630,505
2012: 642,955
2013: 653,002
2014: 662,855
2015: 670,491
2016: 679,848
2017: 687,788
2018: 691,147
2019: 692,600
*2020: 694,325 (Unofficial Estimate)
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets...and-towns.html

Source
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/n...dPQUdLN2c9PSJ9
https://www.globest.com/2020/01/06/b...20210024215054

[Boston Shudra]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

Lets be conservative and say 1.8 residents per unit, since the trend is smaller.

I don't even know if that's a conservative estimate considering how most of those new units tend to be luxury ones. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot were empty.

[Lampert]

People that upgrade to new units may vacate older units that remain empty because they are crumbling? Maybe?
There are a LOT of units in Boston that are really bad.

[masssachoicetts]

Originally Posted by Boston Shudra

I don't even know if that's a conservative estimate considering how most of those new units tend to be luxury ones. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot were empty.

It's actually 2.1, I was a little shocked myself since a lot of units are only 1 bedroom.

And units in Boston are going 95%+ filled, even now. We had a dip in March-November but swinging back to pre Pandemic levels fast.

[masssachoicetts]

Originally Posted by Lampert

People that upgrade to new units may vacate older units that remain empty because they are crumbling? Maybe?
There are a LOT of units in Boston that are really bad.

Fair point. But units are still 95%+ filled and usually it's a cycle when one leaves another moves in. They were having trouble over the summer filling some of the units, but I can see some of the 8-10 unit homes/'complexes' that are totally unlivable be vacated waiting for redevelopment.

[Boston Shudra]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

It's actually 2.1, I was a little shocked myself since a lot of units are only 1 bedroom.

And units in Boston are going 95%+ filled, even now. We had a dip in March-November but swinging back to pre Pandemic levels fast.

Source? If so, then it really might've been just census overspeculation in the middle of the decade.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

So I am browsing through some articles and some recent BDPA meetings. I notice that in 2020, the BPDA approved over 10,100 units of residence, up from 4,900 in 2019. Both very high. SO far in 2021 (Only 3 BPDA meetings as of yet...) and there have been over 5,000 units of residence approved including Charlestown project and the Edison Plant being the big two. There were 4,600 residents approved for construction in 2018, but lets keep that out. That was also up from 3,700 approved in 2017, but down from a little over 4,000 in 2016.

If we consider the average unit in the City of Boston has 2.1 residents/unit, we can predict that with the units approved from 2018-2021* (So far) there will be an additional 49,770 residents through three years of approvals (23,700*2.1). Lets be conservative and say 1.8 residents per unit, since the trend is smaller. That still brings us up by 42,000 people over the course of three years of approvals coming online. If we take that same equation and apply it to all units approved from 2015-2021 (So far),we would get close to 70,000 residents moving into the city of Boston. (1.8 residents * 38,000 units approved).

However, Im seeing a trend. With the number of units propsed/approved/constructed, it seems that the population is not increasing to the beat of construction/approvals. Even with adding about 4,000 units per year, the Boston population should be increasing by a healthy 7,500-9,000 per year. With the City of Boston adding this huge wave of housing by 2025, will we continue to see our population plateau as depicted below? Something is missing. With the amount of housing we have been adding+will be adding, it seems like the city population is being severely uundercounted. Is the recent downward trend/crawl in population due to a correction?

What is your take on this. Because its not adding up. With the amount of approvals we have seen from 2018-2021*, we should be at about 750,000 people by 2025 when most of these units are set to be finished (Bar a few in Charlestown). How are we going to get there? Is there some mass exodus in a part of Boston im unaware of because im showing neighborhoods like Mattapan, Dorchester and Roxbury are flat/slightly growing.


Population Growth 2010-2019*
2010: 621,048
2011: 630,505
2012: 642,955
2013: 653,002
2014: 662,855
2015: 670,491
2016: 679,848
2017: 687,788
2018: 691,147
2019: 692,600
*2020: 694,325 (Unofficial Estimate)
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets...and-towns.html

Source
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/n...dPQUdLN2c9PSJ9
https://www.globest.com/2020/01/06/b...20210024215054

I have Boston official 2019 Census estimate at 694,295 http://censusreporter.org/profiles/1...000-boston-ma/

Which means it gained 230 people in all of 2019. And I believe it.

You know exactly why it’s plateaued. It’s too expensive full stop. I don’t think this is a nuanced issue, the population growth was slowing and Massachusetts has only gained 6000 people the last 2+ years.

This isn’t unforeseen and it’s exactly what 95% of planners predicated. The city is building new units and people aren’t moving to Boston so no surprise... rents had plateaued before COVID and now they’re dropping.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

It's actually 2.1, I was a little shocked myself since a lot of units are only 1 bedroom.

And units in Boston are going 95%+ filled, even now. We had a dip in March-November but swinging back to pre Pandemic levels fast.

I don’t know that that’s true, where your source? I see rents lower than ever and lots of rent specials. Also most 1BRs in assuming are going to couples.

Massachusetts s es a huge net outflow of people in sure no shortage of them come from Boston. With immigration lower and rents higher id have to imagine there are many vacant buildings around the city.

I don’t see the to dispute Census numbers that fall in line with an established multi year trend when they’re are logical explanations right there.

But alas, this is what the Boston aura does it convinces folks that Boston is above reproach and immune to logical trends. We’ll see what the 2020 Census says.

Lot of these project that are being built were pre leased and/or theyve come to far to halt construction or hire a new team. If they built in 2020 it is because they were many years into the process. Almost all the proposals I see now are for Lab space.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Boston Shudra

Source? If so, then it really might've been just census overspeculation in the middle of the decade.

Doubtful because this is reflected statewide too. +50k a year in the early and mid 2010s then a big slow after 2016, and then population decline in 2019-2020. This coincides with a rise in the number of domestic departures. After 2016 immigration was scaled back some and that also could have slowed population growth. Several factors here that make sense. Two years ago in here I predicted this stagnation.

[Lampert]

Nearly 7.2 percent of apartments in Boston were sitting vacant on Nov. 22, according to Boston Pads, a real estate technology platform that tracks local sales and rental data. That’s more than a five-fold increase over a year ago, when the vacancy rate sat at 1.32 percent.

here is what I found in term of apartment vacancies.

Also, on renting

Indeed, while the median September rent in Boston dropped 8 percent year over year, according to Apartment List data, and Cambridge saw a 10 percent drop, median rents in Quincy, Framingham, and Waltham were more or less unchanged — and rents in Weymouth actually rose 4 percent.

With 'hundreds of vacancies,' renters sitting in driver's seat