Boston (the city) Has Lost Its Allure for Me (Worcester: neighborhood, buying)

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by bricka

fair point. i guess "rural" in this analogy is a catch-all for "where the poor people live that can't afford to live in the main economic powerhouse city but need to live close because they work a service job there."

it will be sub-cities like lawrence and fall river that are: 1) close enough to the main city for people with low wage services jobs to commute in, but 2) far enough away so that the residents of the main city don't have to see the poverty.

"rural" in the more traditional sense (lots of land and trees) will probably only be accessible to the wealthy folks who live in the main city because there's no way to make a living in these areas.

on a related point, it's not clear to me how much commuter rail access for sub-cities like worcester, framingham, lowell, lawrence, and haverhill will actually help gentrify them. it seems like commuter rail access has a positive impact on locations that have SFH neighborhoods, but not high density areas.

thoughts?

Providence has been gentrifying before my eyes due to Seaport salaried people moving here in volume to the new apartment complexes built near the commuter rail. It's a huge gripe among my friends being cultured and priced out.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by bricka

the future urban/rural economic relationship in the US will be the one portrayed in The Hunger Games.

The huge issue with this notion is political power. Rural areas have a massive power advantage due to the electoral college.

[bricka]

Originally Posted by CaseyB

Worcester and Framingham have had commuter rail since the very beginning. I assume Lowell and Lawrence have, too. I don't understand your point.

It's cities like New Bedford that commuter rail will be expanded to.

if you re-read my post, you'll see that i never commented on when those cities got commuter rail access. in fact i'm not even remotely interested in it.

i said: "it's not clear to me how much commuter rail access for sub-cities like worcester, framingham, lowell, lawrence, and haverhill will actually help gentrify them."


for the purposes of my example let's create two different caricatures:


1) Yuppie - a fresh new middle/upper class grad gets their first white collar job and plans to extend their college experience into their twenties in the city. they are not making a decision to save money, they want to be around culture and restaurants and all the buzz. they want to get as close to the center of it all as possible.

2) service job guy - they do not have a college degree, they are making much less money per hour than yuppie. they are all ages. they do not have the luxury of "extending their college experience" into their twenties because they need to make money and they didn't go to college. i'm not talking about dignified work like an electrician or a carpenter. i'm talking about cleaning toilets.


in my experience, the yuppie (i was one of them) will choose to live in one of the following areas because it's where all their friends live and it's where all the things happen or it's very CLOSE to where all the things happen: 1) somerville 2) boston 3) cambridge, 4) medford, 5) watertown, 6) brookline.

the yuppie is NOT going to move to: 1) lowell, 2) lawrence, 3) framingham, 4) worcester, 5) haverhill

when the yuppie reaches 30-35 they will have a big decision to make, continue living in the city (unlikely) or start a family. when they start their family they are going to move to a suburb with access to boston and space for their kid that is affordable and has good schools.

the yuppie will once again NOT move to 1) lowell, 2) lawrence, 3) framingham, 4) worcester, 5) haverhill

you know who is going to move to lowell/lawrence/framingham/worcester? service job guy, because his job is to do services for the yuppies but he can't afford to live near the yuppie so he moves as far away as he possibly can while still retaining daily access.

this entire system revolves around boston/cambridge as the center of the universe.

if any of the service job cities i mentioned above were to ever be "gentried" enough so that yuppies were moving to them to "extend their college experience", the ecosystem would have to be soooooo large, that we would have service job cities servicing lowell/lawrence/framingham/worcester/haverhill. i'm not even sure where those cities would be? i mean at some point you go far enough out and you've entered the gravitational pull of a totally different city like portland ME and trust me the yuppies would rather live in portland ME than haverhill.


btw if you ever want to see service job guy commute in, get on the red line or commuter rail at a very odd hour (like 4am)

[bostongymjunkie]

Or, alternatively, the "service job guys" are tradesmen who make much more than the average yuppie, have no student debt, and move to those areas to get away from living in what amounts to a densley packed overpriced suburb where they buy a nice duplex and earn money renting out the other unit. All-the-while, the bulk of the over-rated newly graduated yuppies are living in $1500 rooms in Dorchester with 6 other people and their dogs, or their own parent-subsidized studios. But yeah, the average migrant low/no skilled waiter or cleaner isn't able to live in the city they serve.

[bricka]

Originally Posted by bostongymjunkie

Or, alternatively, the "service job guys" are tradesmen who make much more than the average yuppie and move to those areas to get away from living in what amounts to a densley packed overpriced suburb where they buy a nice duplex and earn money renting out the other side while the bulk of the over-rated yuppies are living in $1500 rooms in Dorchester.

certainly there are people that fit this description, i don't think it's the majority.

as i said in bold: caricature

[bostongymjunkie]

Originally Posted by bricka

certainly there are people that fit this description, i don't think it's the majority.

as i said in bold: caricature

I think most "yuppies" who are living independently in Boston are those with at least a decade of professional experience. The exceptions may be biotech and certain medical.

[bricka]

Originally Posted by bostongymjunkie

I think most "yuppies" who are living independently in Boston are those with at least a decade of professional experience. The exceptions may be biotech and certain medical.

disagree i think the energy of somerville cambridge and boston comes from a constant inflow of recent graduates who are living with roommates. when they sign the lease it's a lot, but they make it work.

like i said, it's basically college but extended. age 22-26 the entire network of friends has entry level pay (10 years ago that was 50k-70k), but i'm sure it's more now, all living in the areas mentioned above, all with at least 2 roommates. everybody is drinking and partying every single weekend.

[bostongymjunkie]

Originally Posted by bricka

disagree i think the energy of somerville cambridge and boston comes from a constant inflow of recent graduates who are living with roommates. when they sign the lease it's a lot, but they make it work.

like i said, it's basically college but extended. age 22-26 the entire network of friends has entry level pay (10 years ago that was 50k-70k), but i'm sure it's more now, all living in the areas mentioned above, all with at least 2 roommates. everybody is drinking and partying every single weekend.

I agree with Casey as to not getting your point. I will say that transient "extended college" partiers does not a community of independently-living adults make. I don't even think I would refer to that demographic as yuppies, although by strict definition I suppose many of them are but then comes the conversation around what exactly is a professional.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by bricka

disagree i think the energy of somerville cambridge and boston comes from a constant inflow of recent graduates who are living with roommates. when they sign the lease it's a lot, but they make it work.

like i said, it's basically college but extended. age 22-26 the entire network of friends has entry level pay (10 years ago that was 50k-70k), but i'm sure it's more now, all living in the areas mentioned above, all with at least 2 roommates. everybody is drinking and partying every single weekend.

I don't view "living with roommates" and "living independently" as the same thing. I know there are some exceptions among single people who do it for social reasons, but most recent grads are living with roommates because they can't afford a place in the area on their own. That's not independent living.

My experience has been that 20-somethings (especially young to mid-20 somethings) living by themselves without roommates or additional subsidization are outliers. It seems like this trend is creeping into late 20s and even early 30s for some who aren't in committed relationships (and can't split a place with their partner) or in fields with high starting salaries and/or rapid growth. I think $50-70k is still pretty standard entry level pay in many fields in this area (apart from some finance and tech), but even someone making $100k with any remaining loan debt, a car payment, or other expenses isn't going to "easily" be able to afford rent in a decent place in a decent neighborhood in Boston/Cambridge/Somerville/Brookline. That's tough. And combined with hybrid opportunities (or fully remote), it makes people consider places like Worcester, Providence, Portland, etc. Each of those places have experienced a rush of in-migration from the metro Boston area. We'll see how it shakes out long term, but for many, those places offer the ability to actually live independently without completely being removed from what the city has to offer. Lots of yuppies, DINKS, etc. are opting to get more bang for their buck in outlying cities.

[bricka]

wow there seems to be some confusion

lowell/lawrence/framingham/worcester/haverhill simply will not gentrify in our lifetime (next 100 years).

poor working class people have to live somewhere.

i said what i said

providence and portland are different stories since they are standalone coastal cities with history and culture. gentrification is certainly taking place in those cities.