Yet Another Warm, Dry Winter Forecast for Southern California (Los Angeles: cost of, agriculture)

[Exitus Acta Probat]

LOS ANGELES, CA - Odds favor below normal rainfall in Southern California this winter, according to a National Weather Service forecast released today.

Yet Another Warm, Dry Winter Forecast for Southern California - Brentwood, CA Patch

Not again. Argh...

[Mr5150]

But the climate for SoCal is always warm and dry!

Why is that an issue now?

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Mr5150

But the climate for SoCal is always warm and dry!

Why is that an issue now?

Water

[saibot]

If I recall correctly, last winter was forecast to be "extremely wet." Hmmm. Maybe they are not so good at this long-range forecasting.

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by Mr5150

But the climate for SoCal is always warm and dry!

Why is that an issue now?

Socal has a rainy season contrary to stereotypes.

[DCMann2]

Originally Posted by saibot

If I recall correctly, last winter was forecast to be "extremely wet." Hmmm. Maybe they are not so good at this long-range forecasting.

No, this is a misconception. Due to strong El Niño conditions there was a higher probability of elevated precipitation levels last winter, but higher probability =/= "forecast to be 'extremely wet.'" A single storm can be forecast to be extremely wet, but long range models deal in probabilities based on historical data and physics to output what's more or less likely to happen.

Climate prediction is notoriously difficult due to feedbacks and other factors, and last year's data will be helpful in future modeling because last winter didn't pan out the way we thought it would.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

I don't know about warm. Dry, yes.

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by DCMann2

No, this is a misconception. Due to strong El Niño conditions there was a higher probability of elevated precipitation levels last winter, but higher probability =/= "forecast to be 'extremely wet.'" A single storm can be forecast to be extremely wet, but long range models deal in probabilities based on historical data and physics to output what's more or less likely to happen.

Climate prediction is notoriously difficult due to feedbacks and other factors, and last year's data will be helpful in future modeling because last winter didn't pan out the way we thought it would.

^^^This. Excellent post. I usually ignore long range forecast myself. Even meteorologist warn people about putting too much faith in them but most people just hear the key words like "wetter than normal" and ignore the rest of the info.

[Proffer]

I have followed news coverage of California drought over the past few years, and find it so interesting. The media took an armageddon approach in its reporting, yet here we are and there is still enough water, and all doom and gloom reports have subsided. It seems that even if it never rained again there then maybe some of the agriculture industry would need to relocate, but there would still be enough water for other commerce and enough to support the human population. Have any of the specialists said that people would have to relocate? No, I don't think so. So what's the big deal?

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Proffer

I have followed news coverage of California drought over the past few years, and find it so interesting. The media took an armageddon approach in its reporting, yet here we are and there is still enough water, and all doom and gloom reports have subsided. It seems that even if it never rained again there then maybe some of the agriculture industry would need to relocate, but there would still be enough water for other commerce and enough to support the human population. Have any of the specialists said that people would have to relocate? No, I don't think so. So what's the big deal?

Cost of water if it gets worse