Prop 1a: Fastrack to Financial Hell (Orange: how much, tax, cost)

[robertpolyglot]

Originally Posted by krudmonk

Prop 1A should suck money from freeway widenings and suburban street repavings. It should not come from schools.

On this I agree. I'm glad some people are looking at the population growth.

[robertpolyglot]

Originally Posted by sav858

It's connecting LA, Fresno, Bakersfield, the Bay Area, Sacramento, and San Diego, all of the major population centers of CA.

The combined population of those metro areas with the most recent estimates is about 32,229,000 out of a state with about 36,553,000. That is 88% of the states population. The Central Valley, which is where most of the route is located, is currently and is predicted to be the fastest growing region in the state for a while.

While I am concerned about the cost overruns, mismanagement, hurdles and general bungling, the route is a major spine with some bends to get around, or under, some passes (the Pacheco Pass up north and the Tehachapi Mts. down south). The cities/areas on this spine will, in fact, account for 90% of the state's population for a long time to come.

[bhcompy]

Originally Posted by robertpolyglot

While I am concerned about the cost overruns, mismanagement, hurdles and general bungling, the route is a major spine with some bends to get around, or under, some passes (the Pacheco Pass up north and the Tehachapi Mts. down south). The cities/areas on this spine will, in fact, account for 90% of the state's population for a long time to come.

but how many of those people actually travel up and down the spine on a consistent basis? enough to warrant another rail line when the surfliner already exists? say what you want about the time of the commute, but the new rail line will have to stop to pick up people just like the amtrak and there is no lack of affordable airfare already while the small regional airports you can fly to and from in many of these areas are literally 5 minute wait from dropoff out front to sitting down in your seat

[sav858]

Originally Posted by bhcompy

but how many of those people actually travel up and down the spine on a consistent basis? enough to warrant another rail line when the surfliner already exists? say what you want about the time of the commute, but the new rail line will have to stop to pick up people just like the amtrak and there is no lack of affordable airfare already while the small regional airports you can fly to and from in many of these areas are literally 5 minute wait from dropoff out front to sitting down in your seat

A lot of people travel up and down that spine, LAX to SFO i s one of the busiest air routes in the nation in addition to the tens of thousands of cars that drive between NorCal, SoCal, and the Central Valley. Demand is there and will only increase with population increases.

The Pacific Surfliner doesn't run between Northern and Southern CA. It goes along the coast from SD to SLO, which makes it pretty much useless for anyone in the Central Valley or the Bay Area.

Flying in and out of small airports in more expensive than larger ones, I've searched for tickets to and from smaller airports like Carlsbad and Santa Rosa and they are not cheap.

[robertpolyglot]

Originally Posted by sav858

A lot of people travel up and down that spine, LAX to SFO i s one of the busiest air routes in the nation in addition to the tens of thousands of cars that drive between NorCal, SoCal, and the Central Valley. Demand is there and will only increase with population increases.

The Pacific Surfliner doesn't run between Northern and Southern CA. It goes along the coast from SD to SLO, which makes it pretty much useless for anyone in the Central Valley or the Bay Area.

Flying in and out of small airports in more expensive than larger ones, I've searched for tickets to and from smaller airports like Carlsbad and Santa Rosa and they are not cheap.

True on both counts.

The Surfliner is a milk-train and SLO to LA alone takes 4 hours...so add another 4 for San Francisco.

The secondary airports are expensive origins/desinations...Chico, Fresno, etc. Not pretty.

[robertpolyglot]

Well, unbelievable, but Prop 1 passed. Can anyone spell "penciling it out?"

I was expecting it to lose. I see its merits, especially with population growth. But the timing couldn't be worse. The cost overruns will be a force to be reckoned with. I don't see how laying two parallel tracks and a bunch of overhead cables past a bunch of cows and rows of crops in the middle of the state can get so costly, but could understand such problems to some degree in large urban areas where they have to chisel for the right-of-way.

Large projects tend to characterized by too many fingers in the pie, so I wouldn't expect it to be smooth sailing. Think "The Big Dig" in Boston.

[FinkieMcGee]

Originally Posted by robertpolyglot

Large projects tend to characterized by too many fingers in the pie, so I wouldn't expect it to be smooth sailing. Think "The Big Dig" in Boston.

As someone who lived through the Big Dig I figure I can comment.

First off, Boston is different politically than California. In CA there is a little bit less corruption/old boys network and more straight incompetant politics. the problems with the big dig really lie upon people giving their friends contracts even though they had no right to them. Thus it took way longer and cost way more than was anticipated.

Secondly the Big Dig was a massive undetaking and I don't think they accounted for that. They built a tunnel underneath the city.

Thirdly, the Big Dig, while rife with corruption DID start a lot of jobs. Something which CA desperately needs. It is also a boon for general transportation in this state (which this state desperately needs as well).

Regarding the economics I would disagree. The only reason airlines are "cheaper" is due to heavy subsidization. After 9/11 the air industry should have been gonezo but it survived, it is STILL heavily subsidized due to high oil prices and a tumbling economy. Europe and Japan seem to do well with HSR, as does the Northeast.

And yeah I agree that local rail should expand as well, I have a feeling that it's in the works as well.

[NativeOrange]

Originally Posted by robertpolyglot

Well, unbelievable, but Prop 1 passed. Can anyone spell "penciling it out?"

I was expecting it to lose. I see its merits, especially with population growth. But the timing couldn't be worse. The cost overruns will be a force to be reckoned with. I don't see how laying two parallel tracks and a bunch of overhead cables past a bunch of cows and rows of crops in the middle of the state can get so costly, but could understand such problems to some degree in large urban areas where they have to chisel for the right-of-way.

Large projects tend to characterized by too many fingers in the pie, so I wouldn't expect it to be smooth sailing. Think "The Big Dig" in Boston.

But what many people don't understand is that if this didn't pass now, that would mean that it would be much more expensive in the future and also the growing population would trigger a highway expansion which would be around 80 billion instead of the 40 billion for the HSR.

[EscapeCalifornia]

Originally Posted by pittsteelers247

But what many people don't understand is that if this didn't pass now, that would mean that it would be much more expensive in the future and also the growing population would trigger a highway expansion which would be around 80 billion instead of the 40 billion for the HSR.

If you believe this project is going to cost anything close to what they say it will, I've got a once in a lifetime deal on some swamp land in Florida for you.

[NativeOrange]

Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia

If you believe this project is going to cost anything close to what they say it will, I've got a once in a lifetime deal on some swamp land in Florida for you.

Still, even if it beats the projected highway expansion costs, it will still be far less polluting, there will still be a lot less traffic, demand for density along the route will increase, and it will create 460,000 permanent jobs as well as 150,000 construction jobs. Jobs are a good thing right??