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Old 11-13-2007, 06:57 PM
 
1,177 posts, read 2,238,982 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlottean View Post
I give up trying to help, you guys win on everything. We dont know squat. We are worthless, lie, cheat, and steal grandmas money.
A confession!
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:37 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,718,482 times
Reputation: 3722
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlottean View Post
Jack,

If you read the thread you would see I pulled this direct from the MLS system. I ran a statistics report to obtain the info. I'm sure all of that info is incorrect and just a big fat lie to fool us agents into thinking we are actually selling houses.

I give up trying to help, you guys win on everything. We dont know squat. We are worthless, lie, cheat, and steal grandmas money.
Never said any of it was incorrect. I appreciate you running those numbers.

Just saying I would like to know inventory #'s and YOY trends to show a true picture of the market, that's all.
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Old 11-14-2007, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Union County
6,151 posts, read 10,022,564 times
Reputation: 5831
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
Never said any of it was incorrect. I appreciate you running those numbers.

Just saying I would like to know inventory #'s and YOY trends to show a true picture of the market, that's all.
I appreciate it as well... Thanks!

Like CJ, I think the "fudging" aside... you look at those numbers and see that 10% less homes sold over the last year while the inventory is reaching record highs. I'm willing to bet it will be even a worse story if you look at a specific price point like 400k(+-100k). The big mansion style places are still moving helping the means. Plus, compound it with Builders trying to sell in communities.

That's staggering and a very key thing to point out to people who are looking to buy (or sell), at least IMO. As a consumer, we turn to the professionals... the ones who "know each market" as the Realtor ads very succinctly say. I met with many Realtors when deciding to put my house on the market and all except one tried to paint a positive side to a sale, let me drive the pricing strategy, and went over a cookie cutter "marketing strategy"... Obviously this is geared to try and land the listing without alienating me.

One Realtor came in with stacks of statistics comparing the last several years - # of houses on the market, # of closings, etc etc... He was very realistic about driving the pricing strategy and it was clear he knew what he was talking about. I went with him after having my previous listing agent do absolutely zero besides "lower the price" for 6 months.

CAVEAT: THIS IS LONG ISLAND, NY REALTORS I MENTION... All my experience with Realtors in the Charlotte area were top notch. But, they were on the rental side so I don't really have a fair comparison.

In the end, I go back to my original point that this doesn't appear to be a buyer OR seller market unless you can "steal" a house. Buying at "market value" right now could be a pretty big mistake. The numbers support the most simplest trend... as supply goes up, price comes down.
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Old 11-20-2007, 12:45 AM
 
9 posts, read 32,821 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlottean View Post
Jack,

If you read the thread you would see I pulled this direct from the MLS system. I ran a statistics report to obtain the info. I'm sure all of that info is incorrect and just a big fat lie to fool us agents into thinking we are actually selling houses.

I give up trying to help, you guys win on everything. We dont know squat. We are worthless, lie, cheat, and steal grandmas money.
Well said. I agree.
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Old 11-20-2007, 05:34 AM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,718,482 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dobbsj View Post
Well said. I agree.
Thanks for the input. That was helpful!


Did you get those #'s yet?
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Old 11-20-2007, 06:49 AM
 
1,908 posts, read 4,980,371 times
Reputation: 743
Quote:
Originally Posted by OCtoCLT View Post
Ya'll are killing me. I am so torn over what to do. I am not even sure that we can find a house we want now since I will not buy a house with the master down so my choices are slim. I think we are going to go out and look and see if there is anything that I have to have. I have a feeling that the market is a lot like out here...people are not willing to lower their prices and just let their homes sit and sit.

Have you looked at "Bridgehampton"? It is right up the road from Ballantyne Country Club. Oldest homes are abour 6 yrs newest ones 2 ish???..Prices from $650,000-$800,000........
Check it out.
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Old 11-20-2007, 05:17 PM
pdq
 
170 posts, read 527,219 times
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Does anyone know where I can find MLS inventory numbers? Sales numbers YOY? Charlotte seems to be doing fine, just curious as to whether inventory has peaked.
Thanks
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Old 11-20-2007, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,718,482 times
Reputation: 3722
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdq View Post
Does anyone know where I can find MLS inventory numbers? Sales numbers YOY? Charlotte seems to be doing fine, just curious as to whether inventory has peaked.
Thanks
Some areas are more difficult than others to find data. Here are two sites to start off. The more you dig, the more information you can find...gl

If you mean "fine" compared to the rest of the country, I'd agree with you. However, don't ask any builders in this area how they are doing because you will get a different story.

Charlotte North Carolina Real Estate Blog

http://www.ncrealtors.com/uploads/Sept07.pdf
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Old 11-21-2007, 06:33 AM
pdq
 
170 posts, read 527,219 times
Reputation: 33
CouponJack,

Looking at that data, things don't look as good as I thought. I heard that Charlotte had the best housing market in the country. Those numbers seem off. We will want to buy something but won't be moving for a while, maybe even two or three years. Will prices continue to rise? Will the inventory pull prices down? I don't mean median or average prices(skewed by fewer more expensive homes selling), but the price of any given house. Please weigh in and give us a feel of what's going to happen in the next few years. We want to be there. When to buy?
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Old 11-21-2007, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Union County
6,151 posts, read 10,022,564 times
Reputation: 5831
If I might jump in, as CJ and I have somewhat agreed in the past... All the signs point to a major issue in the housing market.

CNN Money names Charlotte as #16 market in "25 real estate markets poised to fall":
25 real estate markets poised to fall - Charlotte (16) - FORTUNE

The Real Estate Bubble wiki is a very interesting read:
Real estate bubble - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Nice little commentary from Mortgage Banker's Association:
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/58200.htm

I wish someone had access to their "National Delinquency Survey"... they charge for it.

Excerpt - keep in mind it's a WEEKLY update... If you read through other weeks you see that the trend is all over the map, but mostly down overall.

Things like "Major home builders continued to report high cancellation rates in the new home market." are likely to impact the Charlotte area heavier than the "non-sprawl" areas.

Quote:
Housing and Mortgage Indicators:
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Indexedged up to85.7 in September from 85.5 in August. Over the past year, the index has declined 20.4 percent. The indexis based on signed contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. It is a leading indicator of NAR existing home sales, which are based on closing, as the signed contract for the purchase of a home generally precedes its closing by one to two months. The link between the Pending Home Sales Index and home sales could weaken if market conditions lead to rising contract cancellations. Major home builders continued to report high cancellation rates in the new home market.
The Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Survey of Mortgage Applicationsfor the week ending November 9 showed that mortgage demand jumped, fueled by strong increases in both purchase and refi activity. The Market Index increased 5.5 percent to 707.3. The Purchase Index rose 4.8 percent while the Refi Index climbed 6.4 percent from the previous week.
Mortgage rates rose modestly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate up three basis points to 6.19 percent and the 1-year adjustable rate up four basis points to 5.98 percent. The ARM share of mortgage applications was 15.5 percent of the number and 29.0 percent of the dollar volume of new applications –- up by 1.3 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively, from the previous week.
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