The southern suburbs in the next 10-20 years. (Chicago, Joliet: middle-class, transplants)

[Suburban-Mess]

How do you think the southern suburbs from say Orland Park/New Lenox to the Indiana state line will be 10, 20 years from now. Do you think the area will stay the same? Improve? Decline? How about the shopping options such as Orland, Chicago Ridge, Lincoln, Homewood, and River Oaks will be? The schools? Etc. Please share your opinions.

[chet everett]

Long term the shifts in employment are what drive home values / school quality / shopping and a whole lot more. Since there are really very few reasons to believe there will be any amazing boom in manufacturing or even logistics in the region (as their has been a shift to the outer suburbs for much of that) odds are things will remain much as they are for the closer in areas -- decent option for those in say technical / medical fields, some blue collar stuff and a mix of folks in the trades / owning small businesses. Biggest threat to stability is the continued shrinking reliance on "humans" in the kinds of financial / business services areas that once were a great path to affluence for folks without stellar academics -- as computerized trading / automated auditing replaces things that used to require back office staff the importance of having connectiions increases...

This is not particularly unique to the south / southwest burbs. Same things have happened in the older western burbs the once had solid manufacturing options near by (think radios / TV manufacturing ,though honestly that shifted to Asia three + decades ago) as well as logistics around O'Hare (still big but not as labor intensive as it once was, and nothing like the stuff the FedEx/UPS/Amazon has in places like Kentucky...) . Heck once upon a time the north suburbs had a solid lock on things like pharmaceuticals and food -- while there are lots of white collar jobs in those fields still in / near Lake Co the mass manufacuring has shifted to places with far lower land / labor costs...

[pvande55]

30 years ago everyone was writing off the area. Lately with investment in Steel and Oil facilities it has had a lot of job assignments. One wild card is the South Suburban Airport. It lost one of its biggest boosters with the resignation of Rep Jesse Jackson Jr. But if it takes off the area will boom.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by pvande55

30 years ago everyone was writing off the area. Lately with investment in Steel and Oil facilities it has had a lot of job assignments. One wild card is the South Suburban Airport. It lost one of its biggest boosters with the resignation of Rep Jesse Jackson Jr. But if it takes off the area will boom.

Way back when the genuises that planned the third airport they were predicting growth in air freight, of course that was way way before Amazon became the powerhouse it is. Back then the biggest users of overnight delivery were probably law firms, didn't really make sense to some folks that there would be that much need for a separate airport.

Of course now that FedEx & UPS do have massive package hubs in places like Lexington there is not much need for another "middle of the country" type facility, third airport is probably out of the picture...

I am not aware of any massive expansion of the refineries / steel mills in NW Indiana or out past Joliet. Most folks still do not like any expansion of traditional pollution generating industries, though the salaries at those places are often higher than the befign freight type warehouses...

[pvande55]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Way back when the genuises that planned the third airport they were predicting growth in air freight, of course that was way way before Amazon became the powerhouse it is. Back then the biggest users of overnight delivery were probably law firms, didn't really make sense to some folks that there would be that much need for a separate airport.

Of course now that FedEx & UPS do have massive package hubs in places like Lexington there is not much need for another "middle of the country" type facility, third airport is probably out of the picture...

I am not aware of any massive expansion of the refineries / steel mills in NW Indiana or out past Joliet. Most folks still do not like any expansion of traditional pollution generating industries, though the salaries at those places are often higher than the befign freight type warehouses...

A lot at stake for BP in Whiting expansion
Project boosting East Chicago steel mill’s energy efficiency - DailyHerald.com

Here are two.

[JamieLannister]

Another factor to consider is where the so-called millennial generation will put down roots. This is a generation burdened with debt and so-so employment prospects. I do believe that this cycle will eventually turn around and the economy will improve, but that may still take a number of years.

In the meantime, we have a generation that may help shape the future of Chicago's neighborhoods and its transit-oriented suburbs, depending on where they settle. While I agree that the "return to the city" movement is certainly real, the unfortunately reality is that city-living is still quite tough for middle-class families seeking good schools.

Thus, for those with jobs in or around the Loop, this leads many with families back out to the "walkable, transit-oriented" suburbs, where, despite the real estate downturn, home prices in many of these suburbs remain quite high relative to average income. This is a generation that will have a tough time affording the $300-$500K "starter" homes in those communities.

This is where towns like Homewood and Flossmoor could flourish in the future. Home prices there are quite inexpensive when compared to the western and northern suburbs (although their property taxes do balance things out some). IF young people were to return to H-F (young people of ALL races) and become active in the communities and schools, and IF H-F leaders took some decisive actions towards attracting younger residents (again, of all races) and upscale retail development, then I can see H-F prospering into the future.

A pipe dream? Maybe. But the infrastructure is there and the communities are still pretty nice right now, so if I had to predict the best candidates to do well in the southland over the next 10-20 years, H-F would be mine.

Despite their success the last 20 years, I am less enthusiastic about the suburbs west of I-57. Much of their growth occurred during the boom and during times of cheaper oil. If oil and gas prices become unsustainably high, these communities could be hit hard. A lot of their growth was also fueled by "white flighters" from the southwest side and Cook County south suburbs. If demographics continue to become more mixed in those areas, then we could just as easily see the same sort of flight out of Will County that we saw out of Southern Cook County.

That being said, we're unlikely to have another real estate boom for another generation, so who knows if we'll see another mass migration like we did out of the south side/south suburbs.

Orland will continue to grow and become more diverse. It will probably continue to do well over that time due to its status as a regional retail center.

[urza216]

Originally Posted by JamieLannister

Another factor to consider is where the so-called millennial generation will put down roots. This is a generation burdened with debt and so-so employment prospects. I do believe that this cycle will eventually turn around and the economy will improve, but that may still take a number of years.

In the meantime, we have a generation that may help shape the future of Chicago's neighborhoods and its transit-oriented suburbs, depending on where they settle. While I agree that the "return to the city" movement is certainly real, the unfortunately reality is that city-living is still quite tough for middle-class families seeking good schools.

Thus, for those with jobs in or around the Loop, this leads many with families back out to the "walkable, transit-oriented" suburbs, where, despite the real estate downturn, home prices in many of these suburbs remain quite high relative to average income. This is a generation that will have a tough time affording the $300-$500K "starter" homes in those communities.

This is where towns like Homewood and Flossmoor could flourish in the future. Home prices there are quite inexpensive when compared to the western and northern suburbs (although their property taxes do balance things out some). IF young people were to return to H-F (young people of ALL races) and become active in the communities and schools, and IF H-F leaders took some decisive actions towards attracting younger residents (again, of all races) and upscale retail development, then I can see H-F prospering into the future.

A pipe dream? Maybe. But the infrastructure is there and the communities are still pretty nice right now, so if I had to predict the best candidates to do well in the southland over the next 10-20 years, H-F would be mine.

Despite their success the last 20 years, I am less enthusiastic about the suburbs west of I-57. Much of their growth occurred during the boom and during times of cheaper oil. If oil and gas prices become unsustainably high, these communities could be hit hard. A lot of their growth was also fueled by "white flighters" from the southwest side and Cook County south suburbs. If demographics continue to become more mixed in those areas, then we could just as easily see the same sort of flight out of Will County that we saw out of Southern Cook County.

That being said, we're unlikely to have another real estate boom for another generation, so who knows if we'll see another mass migration like we did out of the south side/south suburbs.

Orland will continue to grow and become more diverse. It will probably continue to do well over that time due to its status as a regional retail center.

Did young people ever leave? No, not very many. And many of us who did seem to have returned.

[JamieLannister]

Originally Posted by urza216

Did young people ever leave? No, not very many. And many of us who did seem to have returned.

I guess I should say that H-F should try to attract more young people from the city, other suburbs and out-of-staters relocating to Chicagoland. Transplants that aren't originally from H-F.

No doubt that people currently living in H-F or who grew up there already know about its charm. The problem, though, is the perception of people from outside the area (ranging from zero perception to "meh" to a negative perception based on some of the other south suburbs).

[urza216]

The southland has ALWAYS been under-served compared to the rest of the region. This is nothing new. I have hope for the future of the south suburbs - at least as far as THIS COUNTRY'S RECESSION is concerned. I don't see anything great happening in the north or west suburbs either in the midst of this recession. I hear about jobs being lost everywhere all across class lines (except for the richest of the rich) and across the region and the country - It just hits areas like this harder because we had less money to start. There's no reason to think the south suburbs won't prosper, relatively speaking. Chet and Pvande are rarely out this way and they don't really know what they're talking about.

[urza216]

Originally Posted by JamieLannister

I guess I should say that H-F should try to attract more young people from the city, other suburbs and out-of-staters relocating to Chicagoland. Transplants that aren't originally from H-F.

No doubt that people currently living in H-F or who grew up there already know about its charm. The problem, though, is the perception of people from outside the area (ranging from zero perception to "meh" to a negative perception based on some of the other south suburbs).

You old people seem to think everything's all fine and dandy for us young people - the way it was when you were our age. Young people are moving back in with mom and dad to raise kids of thier own. This is today's America - even in the oh-so-much-more prosperous areas like Dupage County and the North Shore.