Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Does anyone else watch real estate on the North Shore? What are you seeing in terms of prices? Are they coming down? I have been told Highland Park and Deerfield people are having trouble selling their houses? What suburb do you live in and what are you seeing?
Does anyone else watch real estate on the North Shore? What are you seeing in terms of prices? Are they coming down? I have been told Highland Park and Deerfield people are having trouble selling their houses? What suburb do you live in and what are you seeing?
This is nothing new in DF or HP. Prices are flat and homes are taking longer to move. Lots of good choices in my part of NE DF though if you can stomach the taxes.
Time on market is higher than what some consider ideal, though July looks like it still came in a bit under the 90 day mark. There are no real signs of real "retrenchment" in either Highland Park or Deerfield median price, especially looking at price/sq ft, though that does not tell the whole story. I suspect that many folks whose homes are in nice but unexceptional locations throughout the region are rather disappointed that they've not seen the rate of appreciation that more unique properties have experienced. If one looks at recent sales it is also hard not to see that negative effect of changing tastes, even for homes that are not truly "outdated". Here is a good example of a property that certainly did not benefit from some of the "personalizations" that the seller left in place -- https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17612218
Of course for folks who NEED to sell and the comps are not as plentiful as they may have been in the past things can look very different than for folks who merely would LIKE to sell... You can use the "Market Trends" function that gives accurate data -- https://www.realtor.com/local/Highland-Park_IL
Does anyone else watch real estate on the North Shore? What are you seeing in terms of prices? Are they coming down? I have been told Highland Park and Deerfield people are having trouble selling their houses? What suburb do you live in and what are you seeing?
From your other thread- are you looking in the $1 million + range? Yeah, that sector is sitting longer than arguably more affordable homes priced well below that price band.
Does anyone else watch real estate on the North Shore? What are you seeing in terms of prices? Are they coming down? I have been told Highland Park and Deerfield people are having trouble selling their houses? What suburb do you live in and what are you seeing?
I watch very closely in part because of my occupation. I am an analyst for a family office, and my primary focus is on the residential housing market.
Home values are relatively stable across the North Shore, but they remain below their late 2000s peak. Evanston has experienced the best recovery but still remains below its 2007 peak (roughly 4% below). Lake Forest is the worst with prices approximately 16% below its peak, also in 2007. In general, the further you go away from Chicago the weaker the market.
Highland Park and Deerfield are relatively poor performers across the board (all price segments). DOM is very high in both communities. Prices are stable.
Evanston and Skokie are the only North Shore communities that could be described as having anything resembling a sellers' market. However, that also comes with an important caveat. The market for homes between $800,000 and $2,000,000 has slowed considerably this year, but well-priced and updated/new construction homes are still selling. Evanston and Wilmette's inventories have performed relatively well in this segment. The market for homes above $2,000,000 is abysmal. There is little movement in that top segment in any of the North Shore communities, including Evanston.
I am living in Lake Forest temporarily, but Evanston is my primary residence. Lake Forest is a disaster zone, but properties adjacent to downtown are selling more quickly than properties in other parts of the city. Estate properties remain extremely hard to move. Southeast Evanston, my neighborhood, has seen some important sales. In the past six months, 23 homes priced above $800,000 have sold. The sweet spot is $1 million to $1.5 million (15/23 sales). The top sale was for $4,550,000 for a lakefront property purchased by a Cubs pitcher. Eight single-family homes in Southeast Evanston are under contract or pending. They are priced between $799,000 and $2,350,000. A $1,800,000 home went into contingency after just 24 hours on the market. A $1,750,000 home that is currently pending has been on and off the market since last year.
I think that it could be a good time for some buyers to jump in. I would be cautious to make sure that I am paying below market value for anything. If you are paying at or above market value, you are selling yourself short. This advice is especially important for buyers of new construction. There is too much inventory to pay a premium. I would probably avoid fixer-uppers or building your own home. Construction costs are too high, and the depreciation is too steep. Make sure you are willing to spend more than seven years in the house. Many sellers are selling their homes for less than what they paid almost 20 years ago. What makes you think that you will be able to sell yours for more in 3 years? Be sure to make a substantial down payment, at least 20%, because you could be surprised at how underwater you could become if you need to sell. Remember, 5% for brokers and potentially more for transfer taxes and closing costs (more and more sellers are picking these up). If you can't satisfy these requirements, RENT.
Quite a bit to agree with, but also some questionable advice, maybe clarifications could be made??
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiruko
I watch very closely in part because of my occupation. I am an analyst for a family office, and my primary focus is on the residential housing market.
Home values are relatively stable across the North Shore, but they remain below their late 2000s peak. Evanston has experienced the best recovery but still remains below its 2007 peak (roughly 4% below). Lake Forest is the worst with prices approximately 16% below its peak, also in 2007. In general, the further you go away from Chicago the weaker the market.
Highland Park and Deerfield are relatively poor performers across the board (all price segments). DOM is very high in both communities. Prices are stable.
Evanston and Skokie are the only North Shore communities that could be described as having anything resembling a sellers' market. However, that also comes with an important caveat. The market for homes between $800,000 and $2,000,000 has slowed considerably this year, but well-priced and updated/new construction homes are still selling. Evanston and Wilmette's inventories have performed relatively well in this segment. The market for homes above $2,000,000 is abysmal. There is little movement in that top segment in any of the North Shore communities, including Evanston.
I am living in Lake Forest temporarily, but Evanston is my primary residence. Lake Forest is a disaster zone, but properties adjacent to downtown are selling more quickly than properties in other parts of the city. Estate properties remain extremely hard to move. Southeast Evanston, my neighborhood, has seen some important sales. In the past six months, 23 homes priced above $800,000 have sold. The sweet spot is $1 million to $1.5 million (15/23 sales). The top sale was for $4,550,000 for a lakefront property purchased by a Cubs pitcher. Eight single-family homes in Southeast Evanston are under contract or pending. They are priced between $799,000 and $2,350,000. A $1,800,000 home went into contingency after just 24 hours on the market. A $1,750,000 home that is currently pending has been on and off the market since last year.
I think that it could be a good time for some buyers to jump in. I would be cautious to make sure that I am paying below market value for anything. If you are paying at or above market value, you are selling yourself short. This advice is especially important for buyers of new construction. There is too much inventory to pay a premium. I would probably avoid fixer-uppers or building your own home. Construction costs are too high, and the depreciation is too steep. Make sure you are willing to spend more than seven years in the house. Many sellers are selling their homes for less than what they paid almost 20 years ago. What makes you think that you will be able to sell yours for more in 3 years? Be sure to make a substantial down payment, at least 20%, because you could be surprised at how underwater you could become if you need to sell. Remember, 5% for brokers and potentially more for transfer taxes and closing costs (more and more sellers are picking these up). If you can't satisfy these requirements, RENT.
While I appreciate the input from the perspective of someone who probably has lots of motivations to track residential property values given their employment, I know of no easy way for the sorts of high net worth investor that is characteristic of a family office situation to really benefit from an extremely targeted real estate price analysis, so I'd caution that unless there is a new way to hedge submarkets the info really falls more into the category "casual observation" rather than "professional advice".
That said I too am in agreement that costs for new construction are quite high, and there is too much inventory of existing homes in many categories throughout the desirable suburbs. However, I do not fully agree with either a blanket statement of it being a good time to jump in NOR do I agree that everyone who cannot come up with 20% down payment is better off renting. It really requires a much more detailed analysis of each buyer's total financial picture, including the likelihood of them being able to benefit from long term homeownership vs alternatives. The fact is lower downpayment is really a way to get more leverage on a potential investment, and that is almost universally a good thing. I'd further point out that except in rare instances the real financial benefits of renting go not to the tenant but the landlord...
In a general sense I do think that the financial mess that Illinois is in does add a unique level of downside risk, especially given the promises of JB Pritzker to do everything he can to raise taxes which will further depress home values, but even factoring those things into the mix only highlights the degree to which tax policies ALWAYS create winners and losers. I see no real avenue for a renter who desires to live in a traditional suburb to come out ahead of homeowners except in the case of very short term transaction.
In general, high priced SFH is a contracting market. Not saying desirable suburbs won't stay desirable but I think that if you buy expecting an explosion in value, you'll be disappointed. Younger buyers just don't have the money to pull that off, at least in large numbers. And their "impress the Jones" factor is virtually non-existent compared to prior generations.
Millennials on the whole are focused on living in the city and, especially, multi-unit properties at value pricing. They've already driven up the vast majority of safe neighborhoods in the City, and they're starting to spillover into even unsafe areas like East Garfield Park and North Lawndale.
I don't think this is going to bode well in the long run for the North Shore, but I guess we will see.
While I appreciate the input from the perspective of someone who probably has lots of motivations to track residential property values given their employment, I know of no easy way for the sorts of high net worth investor that is characteristic of a family office situation to really benefit from an extremely targeted real estate price analysis, so I'd caution that unless there is a new way to hedge submarkets the info really falls more into the category "casual observation" rather than "professional advice".
The family office is my family's family office. We invest in both commercial (primarily medical) and high-end residential (single-family and multifamily) real estate throughout the United States. Direct investment partnerships with localized developers have provided us with better returns than REITs. We are not in the billions of dollars, and the origin of the family wealth is primarily from residential lending, development, and medical buildings. This strategy is in keeping with what we know best.
In general, high priced SFH is a contracting market...
...I don't think this is going to bode well in the long run for the North Shore, but I guess we will see.
In the city, high-end SFH is doing relatively well. I share your pessimism for most the North Shore. However, I think increasing relative affordability will eventually attract more buyers. Another element that has decreased the attractiveness of the North Shore among younger buyers is that our housing inventory is a lot older than what you typically find in the city and in Hinsdale, Western Springs, Elmhurst, etc.
Didn't see it mentioned, but I have to believe the new Federal tax law, which only allows up to a $10K deduction of property/income tax has to be hurting the high-end market in states like Illinois. I frequently see homes selling here for less than what the current owner paid. That has to be a bitter pill to swallow.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Quite a bit to agree with, but also some questionable advice, maybe clarifications could be made??
