Chicago falling behind economically, now US #4 urban economy (Worth, San Jose: 2015, incomes)

[ZachF]

Chicago has been the US' #3 urban economy since the around 60s, when it was surpassed by LA. Demographia and many others consider Sand Francisco and San Jose one contiguous urban area but they are classified as separate in census metro areas. Add their metro economies together and you see that Chicagoland has now lost it's #3 spot. Furthermore, it looks like it's in danger of falling behind both Dallas and Houston within the next 5-10 years. Population is growing 2-2.5% per year in Houston/Dallas and 0% in Chicagoland. Chicago is rapidly losing it's economic prominence.

year-- Bay Area-- Chicago---- Dallas-FW-- Houston
2001- $370,126m $416,456m $256,467m $240,943m

2011- $521,626m $551,983m $402,824m $441,736m
2012- $557,104m $579,667m $430,109m $475,043m
2013- $585,096m $589,812m $461,320m $515,184m
2014- $625,788m $610,552m $504,358m $525,397m
2015e $668,309m $628,509m $520,117m $505,116m
2016e $712,824m $646,173m $551,323m $514,442m

*2015 data is estimate based on quarterly state data. 2016 is just rough extrapolation of current growth

[NOLA101]

Chicago is the #5 urban economy by CSA. DC and Bay Area passed Chicago around 10 years ago, and both are now far ahead.

But Chicago won't be surpassed by any other metro anytime soon, I don't think. Dallas and Houston are still a ways behind.

[ZachF]

Originally Posted by NOLA101

Chicago is the #5 urban economy by CSA. DC and Bay Area passed Chicago around 10 years ago, and both are now far ahead.

But Chicago won't be surpassed by any other metro anytime soon, I don't think. Dallas and Houston are still a ways behind.

Chicago MSA's economy is only ~17% larger than Dallas-Fort Worth. With DFW growing ~2.5% a year and Chicago standing still, if incomes stay the same relatively it will only take ~7 years for DFW to overtake Chicago, and Houston not too long after that... If oil recovers Houston could do it even sooner than that.

[Maintainschaos]

Originally Posted by ZachF

Chicago MSA's economy is only ~17% larger than Dallas-Fort Worth. With DFW growing ~2.5% a year and Chicago standing still, if incomes stay the same relatively it will only take ~7 years for DFW to overtake Chicago, and Houston not too long after that... If oil recovers Houston could do it even sooner than that.

You can clearly see from the data you posted that the Chicago economy is definitely growing at a healthy clip (anything but standing still) despite the tepid population growth.

[williepotatoes]

Originally Posted by Maintainschaos

You can clearly see from the data you posted that the Chicago economy is definitely growing at a healthy clip (anything but standing still) despite the tepid population growth.

Third largest economy in the U.S. by GDP, with 14% growth in the last five years.

[compactspace]

If the civic leaders in the SF vicinity do the right thing and plow the proceeds of their boom into infrastructure and amenities then its position should be cemented for a long time to come.

You couldn't pay me to live there, though.