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Wolden, your equity is safer out in Deerfield Township.
Seriously, in Cincinnati's urban core and inner ring suburbs, I doubt if you can find a nice, safe, middle-class or upper-class neighborhood that isn't somewhat near one that's crime-ridden.
This topic is of interest to me because I live in a subdivision that's been essentially crime-free for the 10 years I've been here. Look at the crime statistics within a mile radius, and they'd be certain to scare you off.
So you can either go way out in the 'burbs, or you can look at an individual property and use common sense when you think about whether you--or whoever's going to purchase the house from you someday--is likely to become a crime target. Thinking about my own area, it's no accident that criminals avoid it. It has physical barriers and other attributes that cause even the most stupid among them to think a bunch of other nearby places are preferable targets.
Wilson and I have tangled so frequently on this board that I think it prompted someone to ask once if we were sure we weren't married But a few months ago he posted something I thought was one of the most sensible and articulate things I'd ever read about foot traffic patterns and crime. As I recall, he was talking about OTR, but the principles apply anywhere. Maybe if he's reading, he could locate it better than I could. It bears repeating.
Sarah,
I agree with you. You can find streets where this is no crime recorded for ten years. Of course as they always say in investing, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance". You have to somehow see the direction of a whole neighborhood. Blight spreads.
My own area of Hyde Park is certainly not immune; a little over a year ago there was a rash of burglaries. But they caught the perpetrators. Also recently in Mt Lookout and Hyde Park they caught a woman who was walking into houses stealing jewelry. Of course the woman was stealing $70,000 worth of jewelry. One tends to believe this catches the attention of the police.
In my opinion within the 275 circle, you can find areas with very minimal crime in Indian Hill, some streets in Hyde Park, many streets of Mt Lookout, some areas of Anderson, Terrace Park. I am talking about areas with only 1-3 incidents on average per year. Clifton fails this test as do vast swaths of the entire west side.
Of course, turns out the areas with very little crime have very high cost housing. The market is pretty smart. This is also, IMO, the reason why you can but a lot of houses in Mariemont for somewhat less than in TP. The Market knows best.
Wolden I see that TP has a big crime wave . . . in barking dogs and blocked driveways. I think both would be good places to live from a crime standpoint.
"In my opinion within the 275 circle, you can find areas with very minimal crime in Indian Hill, some streets in Hyde Park, many streets of Mt Lookout, some areas of Anderson, Terrace Park. I am talking about areas with only 1-3 incidents on average per year. Clifton fails this test as do vast swaths of the entire west side."
I think maybe our difference in perspectives is that you're looking at larger areas than I would, with little consideration of natural or perceived psychological boundaries. My point really was that in practicing the very inexact science of trying to determine whether a given property will become a crime scene, you have to look at the situation in a deeper way than reading statistics on the internet. My crack about Deerfield Township actually addressed that very issue. In a less diverse type of suburban development, those maps are a lot more useful than they are in someplace like Clifton.
As an aside, once when I was looking through those same crime statistics, I noticed an unusual number of reports from one household in my neighborhood. I was pretty sure that house hadn't been broken into multiple times. Turns out the homeowner owns several rental properties and was phoning in reports of breakins at her rentals from her home phone. They showed up on those maps as happening at her home. I mention this just as a point of interest, not because I think it accounts for a very high percentage overall of the crime reports.
Sarah... Yes I believe crime statistics have to be viewed very carefully, and their validity challenged.
As they say barking dogs and blocked driveways may not be real high on the list of subversive crimes. I believe your own eyes may be a far better indicator of the condition of a neighborhood than the statistics on the internet. If you see a predominance of boarded up businesses, houses with failing roofs, paint peeling down to the bare boards, driveways reduced to rubble, yards grown up in saplings or bare ground, you are probably not looking at a vibrant neighborhood.
In addition to crime, there is simply the cost of everyday living and satisfication.
I have read with interest the past several months the recommendations given to inquirers as to living in the City, there seems to be the same continual drone - Hyde Park, Oakley, Pleasant Ridge, Columbia-Tusculum, Wyoming & Mariemont (not actually in the City), plus votes for Northside & Westwood. And for some reason Clifton Gaslight. Now this one amazes me, a rundown neighborhood near the University of Ccincinnati which only exists due to the economic influence of the University. Why would anyone other than faculty and students want to live there?
In some of the areas, the comments I take note of are related to good prices for the overall home, provided you can stick it out until the neighborhood recovery is complete. What I fail to see is a true evaluation of what it will take to bring these old properties up to current standards, whether that be electricial, plumbing, HVAC, or any of the other mechanicals. A nice brick house with beautiful woodwork is still a monkey around your neck if the everyday living component is not there. An example would be a Federal style home with box gutters. To reburbish and reline those box gutters could equal the cost of an entire roof on another house. They may be distinctive and architecturally appealing, but is this what you desire and are capable of spending your money on?
It is nice to talk about gentrification of portions of the City, but from what I can see it only works if the participants realize they will spend far more on restoration and improvements than the original purchase. If enough like minded people do this the results can be fine. But I do not see it as a venue the average home purchaser is prepared for or knowledgeable enough to undertake.
For what it's worth, if you'll drive the streets roughly bounded by Clifton Avenue and McAlpin, plus the couple of streets that run off Clifton to the east, I think you'll see what people consider so desirable. Rundown it is not, and its location within the greater metro area is superbly convenient in many respects. The property values, last time I checked, reflect all that.
Interesting note about foot traffic, etc.: when hubby and I were looking for a house 10 years ago, we (okay, mostly HE) were very attracted to one on Greendale. One reason I ended up nixing the idea (in addition to fears the house was a money pit) was the fact that Greendale itself directly connects with the crappy neighborhood down over the hill. Matter of fact, I spent a lot of time parked in front of the house and saw a lot of foot traffic I didn't like the looks of. This is the kind of micro-observation I'm saying I think is a lot more useful than looking at stats on the internet.
Sarah,
I agree with the importance of observation,we made the exact same observation about Greendale. We also observed foot traffic increasing through Clifton, increased thefts from cars, and we observed ever increasing "tagging" on public signs. Then we heard about armed robberies. Finally we were crime victims, and moved.
But observation can only tell you so much. Statistics represents pooled observation. True, there are always problems with pooled data.
But each "crime" report on Navigator distills a lot of hard facts. These are incidents that raised to the level of calling police, who go to the site and file a report. There is a real power in statistics.
In terms of barriers for your own peace of mind, that is well and good. Problem is, any such protection has to be obvious to the market when you sell your house. Otherwise, prices go down and you lose your equity. Prices have fallen dramatically in Clifton Gaslight, for example, even though many streets are still very nice.
My posts are strictly about how to preserve equity, which I think more people appreciate now that the housing bubble has crashed. Of course if you intend to live somewhere the rest of your days, that isn't an issue. Also not an issue if you are very rich.
Sarah,
I agree with the importance of observation,we made the exact same observation about Greendale. We also observed foot traffic increasing through Clifton, increased thefts from cars, and we observed ever increasing "tagging" on public signs. Then we heard about armed robberies. Finally we were crime victims, and moved.
But observation can only tell you so much. Statistics represents pooled observation. True, there are always problems with pooled data.
But each "crime" report on Navigator distills a lot of hard facts. These are incidents that raised to the level of calling police, who go to the site and file a report. There is a real power in statistics.
In terms of barriers for your own peace of mind, that is well and good. Problem is, any such protection has to be obvious to the market when you sell your house. Otherwise, prices go down and you lose your equity. Prices have fallen dramatically in Clifton Gaslight, for example, even though many streets are still very nice.
My posts are strictly about how to preserve equity, which I think more people appreciate now that the housing bubble has crashed. Of course if you intend to live somewhere the rest of your days, that isn't an issue. Also not an issue if you are very rich.
Actually, rents have risen in Gaslight Clifton. My good friends at City Center Properties have 100% occupancy after a series of rent increases. Check out their beautiful properties. I particularly recommend the Delmoor, exquisite Gaslight Clifton, and the Marburg. These are right around the corner from the Esquire Theater and the charming bars and restaurants of Clifton and Ludlow. Click on "Rent a Loft" Icon.
Sarah,
I agree with the importance of observation,we made the exact same observation about Greendale. We also observed foot traffic increasing through Clifton, increased thefts from cars, and we observed ever increasing "tagging" on public signs. Then we heard about armed robberies. Finally we were crime victims, and moved.
But observation can only tell you so much. Statistics represents pooled observation. True, there are always problems with pooled data.
But each "crime" report on Navigator distills a lot of hard facts. These are incidents that raised to the level of calling police, who go to the site and file a report. There is a real power in statistics.
In terms of barriers for your own peace of mind, that is well and good. Problem is, any such protection has to be obvious to the market when you sell your house. Otherwise, prices go down and you lose your equity. Prices have fallen dramatically in Clifton Gaslight, for example, even though many streets are still very nice.
My posts are strictly about how to preserve equity, which I think more people appreciate now that the housing bubble has crashed. Of course if you intend to live somewhere the rest of your days, that isn't an issue. Also not an issue if you are very rich.
I don't disagree at all about the importance of reviewing statistics. And I'm sorry you became a crime victim. I remain unconvinced, though, that increasing crime statistics in the more pricy parts of Gaslight Clifton are driving prices down. On a quick review a while ago of listings on streets familiar to me from my previous housing search, it looked like prices were pretty much where they were 10 years ago. In this market, that's nothing to sneeze at.
I have to disagree with the assumption that preserving equity doesn't matter to a long-term resident. Most people can't afford to have it evaporate, even if that evaporation takes a long time. Eventually aging sends many of us to smaller quarters, a rental, or to assisted living. We end up needing that equity money. But I really believe that if the equity situation were as affected by crime as you appear to think it is, nobody except the most severely disadvantaged and those in the handful of neighborhoods you cited earlier would be owning homes within the 275 loop at all. And that's clearly not the case.
Perhaps your personal misfortune has colored your perceptions.
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But a few months ago he posted something I thought was one of the most sensible and articulate things I'd ever read about foot traffic patterns and crime. As I recall, he was talking about OTR, but the principles apply anywhere. Maybe if he's reading, he could locate it better than I could. It bears repeating.
re: crime patterns
