2013 half-year crime stats are up (Avon, Reading: violent crime, statistics, murders)

[Chemistry_Guy]

The STARS reports can be found here.
Crime Statistics - Police

The stats were interesting, and somewhat surprising to me. Here is my summary:

-Overall violent crime and homicides are both up (in 4 of 5 districts), but property crime is flat.
-The biggest increases in violent crime and homicides were in district 2 (Hyde Park, Kennedy Heights, Oakley, Mt. Lookout, Madisonville, etc.)
-The only district to see a decrease in homicides was district 4, which is around the Reading Road corridor (Corryville, Avondale, Roselawn, Bond Hill, Mt. Auburn) and is generally characterized by many as being in decline.
-The violent crime increase on the west side was much less than on the east.

I know of the dangers of using year to year statistics with smallish sample sizes, but clearly 2013 has shown some consistent trends so far.

Does this mean anything? Is this a sign of hope for Avondale, Bond Hill, and Roselawn? Is it a wake up call for Hyde Park? Or is it just a case of police presence pushing criminals from one place to another?

[Arctic_6]

From a statistical point of view, there's no way to make good inferences about trends unless you have longitudinal data. One confounding possibility is that that we're currently operating under an interim chief of police so we can expect that the police have not been as effective. That's backed up by arrests: even with increases in arrests for some serious crimes, we're seeing a total decrease in arrests since YTD 2012. Another confounding factor, as dumb as it sounds, is nice weather. Crime goes up when the weather is conducive to walking. Since old haunts are increasingly patrolled more by police it's possible that good weather and increased mobility to other areas (due to gentrification and high density of police patrols in CBD) have carried crime with them. There's no way to know without seeing a longer time-series, though.

I'd like to see a more definitive map, though, because with district stats one or two declining areas (or even areas where police enforcement has temporarily declined) can swing up the entire district.

Last year someone ran a piece, I think in the Enquirer, about YTD 2012 totals for homicide and other crimes. At the time many were higher than 2011. By year's end 2012 had overall lower stats than 2011. That report was up to March if I recall, so there is a bit of a stronger direction this year.

We're still showing decreases over 2011, as well, which means that 2012 may have been a particularly good year but 2013 is not indicative of a general upswing. In the general downward trend since 2002 there have been times when violent crime went slightly up, but the decrease continued.

I also not really an issue of sample size because this should be likened to a "census" of sorts, where this is every reported crime in the city. It's more an issue of an incomplete data, inadequate time-series, and some possible confounders.

[unusualfire]

Does this mean anything? Well check out Indy and compare the two crime wise. Crime is much worse in other places. And if you don't do drugs you have nothing to worry about.

[Chemistry_Guy]

Originally Posted by unusualfire

Does this mean anything? Well check out Indy and compare the two crime wise. Crime is much worse in other places. And if you don't do drugs you have nothing to worry about.

I have a $500/day crack habit and my gang is involved in a turf war at the moment. This data helps me plan the appropriate street corners on which to ply my trade.

[TomJones123]

Originally Posted by chemistry_guy

i have a $500/day crack habit and my gang is involved in a turf war at the moment. This data helps me plan the appropriate street corners on which to ply my trade.

roflmao!

[progmac]

Originally Posted by unusualfire

And if you don't do drugs you have nothing to worry about.

that isn't strictly true. especially with regards to property crime.

[Ohiogirl81]

Originally Posted by unusualfire

Crime is much worse in other places.

And much lighter in others. So what's your point?

And if you don't do drugs you have nothing to worry about.

Unless, of course, you're not doing drugs in the vicinity of someone who is committing a crime ...

[Serpens]

Originally Posted by Chemistry_Guy

I have a $500/day crack habit and my gang is involved in a turf war at the moment. This data helps me plan the appropriate street corners on which to ply my trade.

This made for a good laugh.

[unusualfire]

Originally Posted by Ohiogirl81

And much lighter in others. So what's your point?
Unless, of course, you're not doing drugs in the vicinity of someone who is committing a crime ...

By all means keep doing what you have been doing. You will keep getting what you have been getting.

[t45209]

Originally Posted by Arctic_6

From a statistical point of view, there's no way to make good inferences about trends unless you have longitudinal data. One confounding possibility is that that we're currently operating under an interim chief of police so we can expect that the police have not been as effective. That's backed up by arrests: even with increases in arrests for some serious crimes, we're seeing a total decrease in arrests since YTD 2012.

I'm not sure how you can say this. The interim chief as been on the job for barely a month. If anything, I'd say maybe Craig was more concerned about his next job than his current one. In fact, I like some of the things that I hear from our interim chief...seems like he has a low tolerance for morons with guns.

There are some things in this report that do not make sense to me. Notably, how is it that District 1, which includes Over the Rhine, only has four murders in 2013? Heck, there were three murders in just two days in May. I'm pretty darn sure I have heard of several more beyond that. Please correct me if I am wrong on this.