More Streetcar Delays (Cincinnati, Covington, Nellie: home, property taxes, live)

[SWOH]

^the profits are returned through a larger tax base and less cost in city-funded demolitions/lawsuits filed against delinquent property owners, etc.

[flashes1]

Originally Posted by WILWRadio

Probably. But I hope it works and can somehow find a way to break even. The concept is OK though I much prefer Light Rail vs. Slight Rail. Slight Rail would be better used as a feeder system to a Light Rail system.

I hope and pray it works out, but I just don't see how the numbers are going to work. I'm a numbers guy----P&L's are my life....just don't see how they work. Some major financial assumptions were made that were not grounded in reality.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Briolat21

I'm happy for new development anywhere in the city ....

but a lot of that was basically real estate speculation - it became a "gold rush" where people bought cheap along the supposed line, and will sell for killer profits when/if the line is a success.

Which is fine, its the "american" way. Unfortunately, since the street car is at least partially publically funded - its unfortunate that the profits in the "development" won't also somehow be returned to the public..

I know there was a talk of a special taxation district around the streetcar (to pay for operating expenses, I believe). I don't know if that ever went through - and I don't think it would capture any of the increased property values .. Which it should, as its the public's investment that has (at least partially) made those properties worth more.

But - we value things in a decidedly one-sided way in this country.

There was an interesting article in the Atlantic (or Salon, or Huff Post) about how hard it is to really covert small cities to public transportation. And that was in cities much larger and much denser than Cincinnati. So while I hope for the success of this initiative.. I'll remain neutral until its been a decade and we see the actual outcome for user-rates.

Glad that its thus far mostly on-time, and somewhat on-budget (as earlier posts show, that seems to be a matter of opinion).

Won't increased property values along the line allow for increased tax returns for the city? It would be incorrect to act like the city is getting nothing back.

[Briolat21]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

Won't increased property values along the line allow for increased tax returns for the city? It would be incorrect to act like the city is getting nothing back.

I thought of that after I made the post.

yes, technically increased tax values for the land should lead to increased tax revenues for the city..

though a good bit of that may be offset if the properties were rehabbed using any sort of tax abatements .. (I know the city had significat tax abatements for residential properties... I don't know if there are such things for commercial properties (businesses or condos/apartments)..

But technically, yes some of the revenues woudl be returned in that fashion.

Though - for people who are selling and walking off with a huge profit, most of those increased property taxes would be paid by the future owner of the property, rather than the speculator who bought low and sold high.

I do recognize that the increased economic structure is also supposed to return value to the city /tax payer, as SWOH posits.

Hopefully that comes to pass.

[WILWRadio]

Originally Posted by cincydave8

It's already going great for the city and it's taxpayers. The opponents just need to know when they've lost. It's been a success. On time and on budget success too.

Look at all these articles about development along the line where the developers list the streetcar as one of the reasons. There are plenty more development too:

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...o-convert.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...MRECl5eh3sXAQf

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...to-reopen.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...ny-moving.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...the-rhine.html

And of course GE and it's 2,000 jobs:
http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...the-banks.html

Oh and look 5 new beers we get:
http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...ial-beers.html

I'm not an opponent. But I am a pragmatist and deal with the facts.

Now, if you use New Math to evaluate the start up costs and annual budget then yes, thanks to the budget revisions of the last two years, the project is on budget. 109 million which was the original projection to develop the first leg of the rail in OTR (2008 or so for that quote) could indeed be twisted to look like 133 million which somehow turned up as the development cost in 2013. And in 2013 they suddenly realized the power lines in some areas would have to be relocated and that added another 15 million. So yes, if you use "New Math" then indeed you are correct. 109 million in reality has become 148 million and yes, the project is right on budget. And the original projection for the number of riders plus the cost to run the system has actually doubled since 2008 from 2 to 2.7 million to upwards of 4.7 million.

I certainly hope for the sake of the taxpayers that they can obtain enough riders to make this worthwhile. Last I knew they need to average at least 3,000 riders a day for every day of the year for this thing to have a chance at breaking even.

[unusualfire]

Originally Posted by WILWRadio

I certainly hope for the sake of the taxpayers that they can obtain enough riders to make this worthwhile. Last I knew they need to average at least 3,000 riders a day for every day of the year for this thing to have a chance at breaking even.

No transportation system breaks even except NYC and Tokyo.

[Kevin1813]

Why do we continue to have this discussion about the streetcar breaking even? Air travel and automobile travel have never "broken even" ever and the country hasn't fallen apart.

To continuously complain about transit projects not breaking even while billions of dollars are sent to subsidize air travel and highways is pretty disingenuous. The yearly operating costs for the streetcar are only $3-4 million a year. Even if no fares are collected, that's less than 2/5's of a percentage of the cities annual operating budget.

[flashes1]

Originally Posted by Kevin1813

Why do we continue to have this discussion about the streetcar breaking even? Air travel and automobile travel have never "broken even" ever and the country hasn't fallen apart.

To continuously complain about transit projects not breaking even while billions of dollars are sent to subsidize air travel and highways is pretty disingenuous. The yearly operating costs for the streetcar are only $3-4 million a year. Even if no fares are collected, that's less than 2/5's of a percentage of the cities annual operating budget.

I think it will lose a lot more than $3-4 million a year, and we'll see how willing the taxpayers are to support these loses. Very few people see air and auto travel losses as being subsidized by the taxpayer. Most people, rightly or wrongly, see these modes of transportation as being essential to their everyday lives. I believe the majority of Cincinattians don't view the street car as being essential to their everday lives, and are okay with it so long as it doesn't hurt their pocket book, but if they feel they were misled, there is going to be hell to pay.

So long as the street car proponents accurately conveyed from the beginning how much the local government could be on the hook for annual operating costs, they'll be fine. However, if the losses are a lot bigger, sentiment could turn very ugly, very quickly. I would advise the street car folks to be proactive and get out ahead of this before it happens. Start managing people's expectations---come up with some contingencies...figure out where the money's going to come from, and make sure it's not going to hurt the taxpayers.

I'm a big John Kasich fan, but the day he deep-sixed the financial support to take the street car to Clifton, he killed any chance of it working. I believe the street car people should have retreated at this juncture in recognition of it not being viable, and live to fight another day when they could find the right political support. Instead they ram-rodded it thru expending all their political capital. They went all in which is fantastic if it works. But on the flip side, if it doesn't work, they will earn the public's scorn and blow any chance of success for a very long time.

It's like choosing who's going to be the first black MLB player or who's going to be the first black President. You get one chance to get it right.....choose very carefully who that first person is going to be. If they fail, they set the whole movement back a long ways.

[WILWRadio]

Flashes1. It gets worse.

I was listening to Bill Cunningham on WLW radio today and he interviewed the guy that apparently concocted the idea of bringing Slight Rail to Cincy. I think the guy's name is Steiner. Henceforth he shall be known as Nutley. Nutley indicated that he'd like to dig a mile long tunnel to UC and run the second leg of the project through the tunnel. Probably a couple of stops along the way that will be underground and have stairs and elevators going to the surface for riders.

I have started to do some research on such a project and can't find a specific dollar figure to dig per foot for a rail tunnel. But I was able to learn that with the kind of boring equipment they use to dig these tunnels they may be able to carve about 10 to 20 feet a day out of the earth. Bear in mind that a mile is 5,280 feet. Do the math and this will take 264 days at 20 feet per day.

I've also found that every such digging project in this country has not only taken far longer than anticipated to finish but cost over runs run rampant. The Big Dig in Boston was initially estimated to cost about 2 to 3 billion. Ended up being 14 billion. And the new high speed rail line between SF and LA is now projected to cost at least 68 billion and that project also includes several long tunnels.

If Nutley can somehow manage to convince the city of Cincinnati and its tax payers that building a tunnel a mile long for the Trolley will greatly benefit the city, I will have lost all faith in the people of the city to use common sense where spending public money is concerned.

[SWOH]

^The guy's name is Schneider, and he has thoroughly evaluated every possibility, from running a line up narrow, miserably hilly and curvy Vine St. to obtaining right of way via eminent domain or whatever to plow it up a shallower part of the hill and so on.

He knows exactly what he is talking about, and he knows how to get the job done right. Being someone who knows Cincinnati, its issues, and its needs decently well and certainly better than Bill Cunningham of the Hate Media, I 100% trust Schneider's judgment and that means the tunnel is the best way to get this done.


What I do not trust, and advise others to not trust, is a Hate Media talking head that has done nothing at all to make this city a better place, like Mr. Cunningham or his WLW cronies. They're the B-grade Fox News.... the ones who are too dumb to make it into the big leagues of the limelight on that network, or comparable news sources like Breitbart.com, etc.


So yeah, either you can trust the #'s a guy who has no qualifications spews out of his posterior cavity on Hate Media, or you can trust a guy who has actually ran the numbers, the FMEA, understands all the risks, how to navigate government to achieve what people actually want, etc. and can get the job done.

Your choice.