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Given my thoughts today, I think Charlotte and Austin are definitely the next 3 million plus MSA.
I think St. Louis definitely has the potential to carry the 3 million plus status well. I don't think the drive for growth is there yet but could be on its way in the next 2 or three years depending on the economy and regional cooperation.
That seems to be a lot of adding?
As it stands today, I don't see Nashville as a 3 million MSA for the next census.
I think Nashville as the standard "metropolitan statistical area" will not hit the 3 million mark until the 2050 census.
By 2030, I predict Nashville is around 2.3 million MSA, and by 2040, it should be around 2.6-2.7.
Denver is already a lock. Charlotte, Orlando, San Antonio before 2030. Austin not far behind but I have a hard time seeing it maintain the level of growth they've had considering the infrastructure problems and skyrocketing COL.
The largest net migration to SA metro is from Austin so that plays a factor too. Not sure how much that stacks up numbers wise though.
Given my thoughts today, I think Charlotte and Austin are definitely the next 3 million plus MSA.
Orlando will beat Charlotte to 3 million let alone Austin which is almost ~600k off the mark.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtinmemphis
I think St. Louis definitely has the potential to carry the 3 million plus status well. I don't think the drive for growth is there yet but could be on its way in the next 2 or three years depending on the economy and regional cooperation.
Maybe in two or three decades. St. Louis growth is anemic at best, and unlike the coast which have the luxury of regional immigration and economic monopolies to shake off economic downturns in the long run, STL doesn't.
Maybe in two or three decades. St. Louis growth is anemic at best, and unlike the coast which have the luxury of regional immigration and economic monopolies to shake off economic downturns in the long run, STL doesn't.
I don't think St Louis metro area grows, as much as it starts to slowly decline.
An answer could be migrants from other countries moving in, to make up for the slowing reproductive rates that most Americans are now showing.
But if folks from other countries do not move into the St Louis area, it most likely will not attract enough of a population boost to push it past 2.9 million, let alone 3 million.
St Louis needs a stronger economy, and better paying jobs. Tech and white collar high-paying jobs and companies skip over St Louis, for the large part.
They tend to head to Chicago or Minneapolis, in the midwest region (and to a lesser degree now Indy and Columbus). And nationally, St Louis isn't really in the conversation for tech jobs.
I don't think St Louis metro area grows, as much as it starts to slowly decline.
An answer could be migrants from other countries moving in, to make up for the slowing reproductive rates that most Americans are now showing.
But if folks from other countries do not move into the St Louis area, it most likely will not attract enough of a population boost to push it past 2.9 million, let alone 3 million.
St Louis needs a stronger economy, and better paying jobs. Tech and white collar high-paying jobs and companies skip over St Louis, for the large part.
They tend to head to Chicago or Minneapolis, in the midwest region (and to a lesser degree now Indy and Columbus). And nationally, St Louis isn't really in the conversation for tech jobs.
St. Louis isn't a top ten stem magnate. As much as I hate wallet hub, they rank St. Louis 25 out of 100. Out ranking places like Nashville, Charlotte, Dallas and New York City in STEM opportunities. Still being smashed by Chicago, Austin, Atlanta and Minneapolis. There are many things on the board for St. Louis to reposition itself for a turn around. I will believe it when I see it. The potential is here. St. Louis won't hit 3 million by 2030. Turn the corner maybe?.!
I don't think St Louis metro area grows, as much as it starts to slowly decline.
An answer could be migrants from other countries moving in, to make up for the slowing reproductive rates that most Americans are now showing.
But if folks from other countries do not move into the St Louis area, it most likely will not attract enough of a population boost to push it past 2.9 million, let alone 3 million.
St Louis needs a stronger economy, and better paying jobs. Tech and white collar high-paying jobs and companies skip over St Louis, for the large part.
They tend to head to Chicago or Minneapolis, in the midwest region (and to a lesser degree now Indy and Columbus). And nationally, St Louis isn't really in the conversation for tech jobs.
It's funny you say this. I'm literally considering moving back to St. Louis from Tampa, because in my field the Tampa area pays anywhere from $15k-$20k less and the average house is about $100k more. I don't think growth is always related to job opportunities. St. Louis' economy is actually very diverse and there are a lot of healthcare, technology, financial, and blue collar jobs. I think the problem is just perceptions about crime, culture, and lifestyle, which are somewhat true but definitely overblown. Also, growth begets growth the same way decline almost becomes a death loop for urban areas.
It's funny you say this. I'm literally considering moving back to St. Louis from Tampa, because in my field the Tampa area pays anywhere from $15k-$20k less and the average house is about $100k more. I don't think growth is always related to job opportunities. St. Louis' economy is actually very diverse and there are a lot of healthcare, technology, financial, and blue collar jobs. I think the problem is just perceptions about crime, culture, and lifestyle, which are somewhat true but definitely overblown. Also, growth begets growth the same way decline almost becomes a death loop for urban areas.
I was once considering Tampa as a possible second home but the more I look at things, it wouldn't be a good move from a cost stand point. If I am going to pay more, I need to get more city. Outside of Beachy type stuff, I don't see it. Am I wrong?
St. Louis actually looks terrible on paper. That is the reason for the negative comments. That is also the reason for slow migration.
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